If one were to pick a common theme for the Ravens for each season since Baltimore last won a Super Bowl, it would probably be that they're a team always one or two injured players away from being great. Nearly every year the Ravens find themselves with one less quality corner or one less quality offensive lineman than would be required to win consistently in a league where wins and losses often come only by a single score and could have gone the other way were it not for one pivotal, controversial play. Part of this may stem from the Ravens missing on so many 2nd and 3rd round drafts picks in recent years, and part may also stem from the cap money tied up in the contracts of aging veterans who make far more than they're worth in the waning years of their careers.
Possibly the biggest reason, however, that the Ravens struggle so mightily to be anything beyond slightly above league average is the lack of a truly effective offensive system to elevate players. The Patriots, for example, were without Rob Gronkowski the last time they won a Super Bowl, but that did not stop them from mounting the most impressive comeback in Super Bowl history. It's not because Brady is more athletic or has a better arm than Joe Flacco, but he has been placed in a far more advanced system that he executes with surgical precision--a system where less-than-elite athletes such as Chris Hogan can find tremendous success. John Harbaugh brought with him no such system or philosophy. He, instead, brought with him his experience as a defensive backs and special teams coach. The Ravens typically have outstanding special teams play, and as important as that is, it's only one comparatively minor piece to the puzzle.
It's unfair to compare Harbaugh to Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, but one can't help but wonder what things would be like if the Ravens were led by a man with a better set of schematic philosophies. Harbaugh insisted upon bringing back Marty Mornhinweg this season despite the fact that Steve Bisciotti's initial instinct was to replace the pass-happy offensive coordinator. Bisciotti's warning to Harbaugh was reportedly that if Marty didn't get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2018, both Mornhinweg and Harbaugh would be fired together. I can certainly understand Harbaugh wanting continuity, especially since Joe Flacco also reportedly expressed his support of Mornhinweg, but the play-calling last week was incredibly tough to watch. It's understandable that an offensive line decimated by injuries would limit the Ravens' ability to move the football and put points on the board, but it's still difficult to see the rationale behind Mornhinweg's decisions and apparent thought process. He calls running plays where the Ravens almost never overload at the point of attack, and he still hasn't grasped the notion that this Ravens team must throw to open up the field for the run--it simply can't operate the other way around as it did in years past. Watching Alex Collins get buried in the backfield less than a second after taking the handoff was as depressing as it was infuriating.
Alex Collins hasn't suddenly become a bad running back. Both he and Buck Allen are effective when given the opportunity and running room. It's true that the Ravens don't have a bell cow elite running back the way they did with Ray Rice or Jamaal Lewis, but Collins shocked the NFL last season when he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season. Collins has even had success against the Pittsburgh during his time as a Raven, but it's difficult to imagine he'll find such success tomorrow when the Steelers come to town. Both the Ravens' starting offensive tackles will be out as neither has practiced all week. If I had to take a guess, Orlando Brown Jr. will start on the right side where he's nearly starting caliber already, and Alex Lewis will slide out to left tackle while another backup will take his place at left guard. I might be inclined to say that this setup could possibly work except that the Ravens center, despite being healthy, is probably the weakest link in the chain. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Matt Skura is too great of physical a drop-off from Ryan Jensen, and not adequately replacing last year's mauling starter will likely prove to be the biggest blunder by the Ravens player personnel department.
If the Ravens offense can't be particularly effective tomorrow, the burden will fall on a Ravens defense that looked atrocious for the past two weeks without Marlon Humphrey. Fortunately for Baltimore, it appears as though Marlon Humphrey will play tomorrow, and that will go a long way to limiting Antonio Brown. The Ravens will also miss Tim Williams, but they're so loaded with pass rushers including Matt Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Terrell Suggs that it's safe to assume Ben will feel some pressure off the edge tomorrow. Baltimore already showed it could handle the Steelers' weapons in Pittsburgh, and now they have another opportunity to do so in Baltimore. The problem is that the Ravens defense will wear down if the offense can't mount successful drives to keep the D off the field. It's also safe to say that the Steelers have gotten better since the last time these two teams faced one another.
I'd like to think that the return of the Ravens top corner along with homefield advantage and would be enough to tip things in favor of Baltimore, and I'd even like to think the Ravens will be ok without James Hurst at right tackle because Orlando Brown Jr. is such a talent. The absence of Ronnie Stanley, however, is more than the Ravens offensive line can withstand, especially because it will mean such a low level of talent at left guard as well. If Joe Flacco doesn't have time to throw and if the Ravens are even LESS effective opening up running lanes, it's difficult to see how they'll be able to see significant offensive success against a hard-nosed familiar foe.
In a league where a ton of teams have only 3 or 4 wins at this point, it's tough to count the Ravens out, but given the difficult schedule ahead of them, Sunday's game against Pittsburgh feels like a must-win contest. If you beat a team on the road, it seems only logical that you should be able to beat them at home. It is for this reason that I pray the Ravens rise to the occasion and handle their business before heading into the bye week to get healthy as the second half of the season looms. Missing key personnel doesn't always mean the Ravens will lose to the Steelers. Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in 2015 despite losing Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett. Tomorrow's game will undoubtedly be similarly hard-fought, but something just scares me about how poorly the Ravens played against a Panthers team that is not nearly as good as they appeared last Sunday. The struggled to cover tight ends, and the Steelers have multiple athletic tight ends who can shred a defense if allowed to run free.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore bounces back, but too many factors about this game make me uneasy. Without an offense that can sustain drives late in the game to burn up clock and keep the Steelers off the field, it's tough to see the Ravens stifling the Steelers' ability to mount a furious second half comeback. Hell, the Steelers may not even NEED to come back at all. One way or another, I can't in good conscience pick the Ravens to win this game, but let's hope they prove me wrong.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BEARS AT BILLS- The Bears have only truly lost tough close games against quality teams thus far. The Bills are NOT a quality team. BEARS 31-17
CHIEFS AT BROWNS- Tough to see the Browns turning things around coming off the firing of their head coach and given the current state and track record of their team--also the this opponent. The Chiefs are scary. CHIEFS 42-20
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It's been a tough recent stretch for the Fins, but they already beat the Jets in New Jersey. It's tough to imagine them losing to an uneven Jets team in Miami. DOLPHINS 23-14
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Without Stefon Diggs, it's difficult to imagine the Lions falling to the Vikings even with the limited return of Dalvin Cook. Adam Thielen is certainly having an insane season with nearly 1000 receiving yards through only the first 9 games, but without Diggs on the field, the Lions will be able to keep Thielen doubled most of the day. LIONS 24-21
FALCONS AT REDSKINS- It's amazing just how far the Falcons have fallen less than two years since their appearance in a Super Bowl. Matt Ryan and company have lost both of their road games thus far this season, and the Redskins are 3-1 at home. This will be a good day for Washingtonians. REDSKINS 34-27
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Buccaneers are an absolutely tire fire and the Panthers are gaining momentum, especially at home. PANTHERS 30-16
STEELERS AT RAVENS- John Harbaugh being on the hot seat won't mean much in a game where the Ravens are extremely short-handed on the offensive line--particularly on Flacco's blindside. If Flacco isn't comfortable in the pocket, he isn't accurate and this team doesn't run the ball well enough to take pressure off of him as it did in years past. The Ravens defense will fight mightily, but they can only stay on the field for so long. I'd like to think this will be hard-fought, but something tells me the Steelers will pull away late. I REEEEALLY hope I'm way off on this one. STEELERS 27-17
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos teed off on the worst team in the NFL two weeks ago, but they've done nothing but lose otherwise for the past couple of months. The Texans, meanwhile, have been hitting their stride since they tailored their offense to their quarterback's skill set, and now they've added Demaryius Thomas just in time to take on his old team. TEXANS 35-20
CHARGERS AT SEAHAWKS- It's tough to know what to think about the Chargers. They're 5-2, but they've won a lot of close games over some rather questionable teams with the exception of their blowout of the Browns. The Seahawks are a shell of their former self, but they've won 4 of their last 5 games in pretty convincing fashion, and the only game they lost during that stretch was a 2 point loss to the unbeaten Rams. This could truly go either way, but it's still a bad idea to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially with their current level of momentum. SEAHAWKS 23-20
RAMS AT SAINTS- This is probably the best game of the week as it pits two of the league's top teams against one another in one of the toughest road venues. The Rams keep winning, but they do so by the skin of their teeth and often to teams with iffy records. Drew Brees has more to work with than Aaron Rodgers right now, and I have a feeling his game won't be fumbled away. SAINTS 36-33
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS- If the Rams and Saints game is the best game of the week, the Packers and Patriots might be the most heavily anticipated quarterback duel of the week. Aaron Rodgers has led his team to only 3 wins, but everyone can see they're much better than their record would suggest at this point. With that said, the Patriots are an electric 6-2 with big time recent wins over the powerhouse Chiefs and a strong Bears team. Rodgers typically has some magic in him, but he's going where almost no teams come out victorious (except sometimes the Ravens). PATRIOTS 38-27
TITANS AT COWBOYS- Neither of these teams is a legitimate contender, but the Titans are atrocious on the road. COWBOYS 24-13
I'M NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ON THE RAVENS' CHANCES TODAY, BUT THIS IS A FAMILIAR FOE THAT THEY'VE ALREADY BEATEN ON THE ROAD, AND MARLON HUMPHREY IS, IN FACT, ACTIVE. LET'S HOPE JOE AND COMPANY BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY TODAY!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
