Baltimore has had issues at the corner and safety positions in the recent past, but not nearly to the extent of those displayed this season. The Ravens have possessed a "bend but don't break" defense in many of seasons since John Harbaugh took over as head coach, and that means that teams will move the ball on the Ravens, but the Ravens defense tightens up and limits scoring once opposing teams enter the red zone. Early this season, in fact, the Ravens possessed the best red zone defense in the league, and that kept Baltimore elite in the category of points allowed per game. Fast forward to the last two weeks where two top-tier quarterbacks threw for a total of 803 passing yards including 383 IN BALTIMORE! There's no question that personnel in the secondary is at its all time worst state during the Flacco-Harbaugh era, but could coaching and scheme also be to blame? More importantly, is there a chance that any of this could get any better in the final month of the season?
Jimmy Smith was arguably the best defensive player in Baltimore before his season-ending injury in Cincinnati. He had allowed an average of only 17 receiving yards per game through 8 weeks. With Lardarius Webb's back injury and Asa Jackson's sprained toe, Jimmy Smith's presence helped to greatly lessen the damage opposing quarterbacks could wage upon the back end of the Ravens defense. In the Jimmy Smith's 7 complete games, the Ravens allowed an average of only 14.85 points per game. Since his first half exit against the Bengals, the Ravens have allowed 27.6 points per game...nearly double that of before Smith's injury.
In 2013 the Ravens secondary was a strong point that was held back only by the absence of a true free safety. The corner trio of Smith, Webb, and Graham went up against nearly all of the league's top 10 ranked receivers and held every single one under 100 receiving yards. With the exception of Calvin Johnson, in fact, most were held WELL under 60 yards. There were times where quarterbacks found success late against this secondary, but that had far more to do with fatigue due to the Ravens offense's inability to sustain drives and keep the defense off the field than talent or skill. The Ravens offense has experienced a profound turnaround this season. Baltimore has scored an average of just over 27 points per game this season, and at this rate it will far exceed the Ravens record for most points scored in a regular season from 2012 (the current record is 399 points and the Ravens are on pace for 436 in 2014). The offense has spent plenty of time on the field this season, and fatigue can't be any type of excuse for the D.
With fatigue no longer an issue and because personnel is clearly the main culprit to defensive woes, the Ravens must look to make adjustments in scheme in order to compensate for a lack of starting caliber players in the secondary. Ravens defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, must have felt that his schemes against the Saints went quite well simply because the Ravens won. Wins can sometimes make teams complacent and unaware to major glaring weaknesses. Drew Brees, nevertheless, threw for well over 400 yards against the Ravens secondary, and did so with a weakened receiving corps. It makes perfect sense then that the Ravens would struggle against a Chargers team with an equally impressive group of receivers and a similarly talented quarterback. The major difference between the two games was the fact that the Chargers defense was able to make one critical stop on the Ravens second to last drive and force Baltimore to settle for a field goal from deep inside the Chargers red zone. The Saints made no such critical stops.
Another major difference between the Saints and Chargers games was that the Ravens put fantastic pressure on Drew Brees and sacked the future hall of fame quarterback 4 times. Baltimore managed to sack Philip Rivers only twice, and they played calamitously sloppy football with a total of 14 penalties that helped extend critical Chargers drives. Part of the problem was a clear coverage mismatch and a lack of discipline from Matt Elam. Elam struggled in coverage and twice resorted to simply pulling his receiver down to the ground in frustration before the ball was even released. Sometimes when a defensive back gets beaten in coverage repeatedly, he might resort to excessive physicality to limit the mobility of the receiver he has been assigned to cover. Elam was not the only defensive back to struggle in pass coverage. I don't believe there was a single defensive back that wasn't picked on last Sunday.
If the Ravens drop 5 and 6 players back into pass coverage with little or no success, why not change strategies? When a wounded animal, for example, is backed into a corner, it becomes ferociously aggressive to cover up and compensate for its weakness. That animal might suffer from a limp, but it will gnash its teeth and bite violently at any challenger that dares to approach. The Ravens secondary might be like an injured leg, but the defensive front 7 remain like sharp gnashing teeth and are a more than formidable resource to help overcompensate for a lame secondary. Dean Pees is no sort of blitz specialist. He may be regarded as a defensive brain, but he was particularly uncreative when it came to blitzing Philip Rivers last Sunday. Many fans such as myself expected Pees to heavily attack the A-gaps to take advantage of the fact that the Chargers got down to their 4th string center last Sunday. He did no such thing. Pees also didn't adequately disguise his pressures as Philip Rivers could be seen making audible adjustments at the line to account for what he saw from the Ravens defensive front.
Fortunately for the Ravens, Ryan Tannehill is not Philip Rivers or Drew Brees. The Dolphins run a college style option offense that relies heavily on the run. The Jets, despite their ultimate loss, had great success limiting the Dolphins offense for much of Monday night's game. The Jets also no longer possess excellent corner backs. What the Jets DO possess, instead, is the second ranked run defense due to a talented and physical defensive line. The Ravens rank 4th in run defense, but 31st in pass defense. Stopping Ryan Tannehill will be much different than stopping Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Tannehill is required to run the football in the Dolphins option offense. This means that stopping the Dolphins offense isn't a matter of simply collapsing the pocket. The Ravens must, instead, contain Tannehill and hit him hard and often when he crosses the line of scrimmage as a runner. Unlike Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill is one of the league's worst down-field passers. He looks to get the ball quickly into the hands of such speedy receivers as Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry in hopes that they'll make defenders miss with their speed and athleticism.
It's no surprise that Miami has shifted to this style offense after the Dolphins offensive line failed to give Tannehill enough time in the pocket to make passes down-field last season. This might just play right into the Ravens hand as defensive backs such as Matt Elam play far better when the ball is in front of them than when tasked with making sure receivers don't get behind the Ravens defense. This Dolphins offense also forces Ryan Tannehill to frequently attempt throws on the run, and its far more difficult pass accurately or forcefully while moving than when relatively stationary in the pocket.
After observing the Dolphins on Monday night, I became far more optimistic about the Ravens' chances of winning their 5 straight game against the Dolphins during the John Harbaugh's time as head coach. Despite a relatively successful season, the Dolphins have struggled to get their fan base particularly energized and motivated. I expect a large number of Ravens fans in the stands on Sunday and less of a home-field advantage for the home team.
It's not that the Ravens don't have serious issues to address and obvious dangers ahead. Miami has the second ranked pass defense in the NFL, and the Ravens have a banged up receiving corps at the moment with injuries to Marlon Brown and Torrey Smith. What the Dolphins don't have, however, is the ability to stop the run. The Dolphins allowed the Jets to run for over 200 yards in only the first half of Monday night's game. Stopping the run can be tricky when going up against a team with a serious passing attack, but the Jets almost didn't even ATTEMPT to pass the football were still able to run right over the Dolphins in prime time.
The Dolphins have, in fact, allowed a total of 478 rushing yards in the last two games, and would have likely lost to one of the worst teams in football had it not been for the total lack of a passing game from Geno Smith and company. The Ravens boast the NFL's leading rusher in yards per carry, Justin Forsett, and they also possess a more formidable passing attack with a far more impressive quarterback and receiving corps than the Jets. The key will be keeping Cameron Wake off of Joe Flacco, and the way to do that is to run the football to set up the pass--especially off of play-action.
The Dolphins have played quite well against a laundry list of tough opponents this season with wins over the Patriots, Chargers, and Bills. Almost as impressive is the fact that the Dolphins have had incredibly narrow losses to the Lions, Broncos, and Packers. Half of the aforementioned teams possess more impressive offenses than the Ravens, but not a single one runs the football and stops the run as well as Baltimore. If the Ravens can limit the Dolphins on first and second down and force Tannehill into 3rd and long situations, then I like the Ravens' changes of squeaking out a win on the road this week. If the Ravens defense sputters and gets away from the run, things could get ugly in a hurry.
AFC PLAYOFF RACE UPDATE
One of the major misconceptions is that the Ravens' loss to the Chargers has nearly sealed Baltimore's fate to miss the playoffs once again. A win last weekend would have gone a long way to ensuring a playoff berth, but losing to the Chargers in no way meant the elimination of the Ravens from post-season contention. The Ravens still have the easiest schedule of any of the remaining 7-8 win playoff contenders.
The Bengals currently lead the AFC North, but only won an embarrassingly close game to a horrible team in bizarre fashion after Marvin Lewis was allowed by the referees to break the rules on Sunday. Cincinnati could easily lose 3 or 4 of their last 4 games and finish 9-6-1 or 8-7-1 on the season. The Bengals must play the Steelers, Broncos, Browns, and Steelers for the last month of the season, and there isn't a single opponent on that list that should fear the Bengals.
The Steelers have, at times, looked dominant, and have, at other times, appeared perplexingly weak. Pittsburgh will face the Bengals and Falcons on the road in the next two weeks, and then they come home to face the the Chiefs and Bengals to finish the season. I expect the Steelers to split with the Bengals and lose to either the Falcons or Chiefs. That would leave the Steelers 9-7 on the season.
The Browns will almost certainly lose to the Colts this weekend, and then could get more than they bargained for with the recent poor play of Brian Hoyer when facing the Bengals at home and the Ravens on the road. The Browns should lose at least 2 (if not more) of their final 4 games to finish 8-8 or 9-7.
The Chargers will be incredibly lucky to win one or two of their remaining games. San Diego will face the Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs, and 49ers to finish the season, and each team is easily capable of beating Philip Rives and company. The Broncos and Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers, and the Patriots are simply better in every phase of the game. The 49ers are the only team the Chargers have a good shot at beating, and even that game will be a tough road test. The Chargers will likely finish the season 9-7.
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost their last two games. They lost the first of those two to the Raiders oddly enough, and they predictably lost the second to the Broncos. The Chiefs have the Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers, and Chargers ahead of
them. Each of those games is win winnable, but Kansas City is not
likely to win all of them.
The Buffalo Bills have possibly the toughest schedule of any other team in the playoff hunt. They face the Broncos in Denver, the Packers, the Raiders, and Patriots in Foxboro. The Bills will almost certainly only win one of these games and finish 8-8 on the season. They don't appear to be much of a threat.
The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots early in the season, but they did so in Miami. The Dolphins must still face the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, and Jets once again. The Dolphins have a good shot at winning 2-3 of those games and finishing 9-7 or even 10-6. The deciding factor will be whether or not the Dolphins can beat the Ravens this Sunday.
The Ravens are by no means a shoe-in to make the playoffs. Their secondary is absolutely horrendous, and it may not improve much if at all. Baltimore, however, faces one of the easiest remaining schedules of any of the contenders with games against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, and Browns. Not a single one of those teams possesses an elite starting quarterback or a top 10 ranked pass offense. Miami and Houston rank 22nd and 23rd respectively in passing yards per game, and the Jaguars rank 28th. The Texans secondary is almost as poorly ranked as that of the Ravens, and their run defense is also in the bottom half of the league. The only thing the Texans do well is run the football...and that happens to be exactly what the Ravens excel at defending.
I might sound incredibly optimistic, but bear with me for a moment. If the Ravens can manage to beat the Dolphins this weekend, they should roll to a solid victory over a horrible Jaguars team the following week at home. The Ravens then will head to Houston to face a Texans team that no longer boasts a top 10 offense or defense. The Texans defense, in fact, is ranked 27th in the league overall despite J.J. Watt's astounding, MVP-caliber season. If the Ravens can manage to win their next three games against one formidable opponent, one terrible opponent, and one mediocre opponent, they'll stand at 10-5 with one game to play. If the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns lose as many games as I assume they will during that period, it's entirely possible that the Ravens could be in a position where they could sit their starters in the final week of the season against the Browns, win the division anyway, and possibly keep the Steelers from winning a wildcard....that is the best case scenario.
It's entirely possible that the Ravens lose this week to the Dolphins, but then beat the Jaguars and Texans. That would set the Ravens up for a must-win game at home in Week 16 against a team that has struggled lately. It's a team the Ravens already beat on the road and to which the Ravens have only lost once in the last 7 seasons. Yes, that's the Browns. Yes, Josh Gordon is back, but poor quarterback play has made his return far less exciting. The Browns defense has performed far worse than I assumed it would at the beginning of the season. With the 29th ranked run defense in the league, the Browns will likely struggle to stop Justin Forsett running behind a much-improved Ravens offensive line.
I believe the Ravens are nearly guaranteed to win 2 of their final 4 games, but it's entirely possible that 3 or even 4 wins will be in their grasp. Because of the difficulty of the remaining schedules of the other AFC North teams, 10-6 will likely win the division and 11-5 will DEFINITELY win the division. If the Ravens can manage to beat the Dolphins, they'll probably be good enough make the playoffs. If they fail, they still have a reasonable shot. Asa Jackson looks as though he might play this week, and while I'm hesitant to suggest that he'll be the secondary's savior, he very well may add depth and experience to a relatively inexperienced stable of cornerbacks. Michael Campanaro was a difference maker anytime he was on the field before his injury, and he appears as though he's ready to play this weekend. If Campanro can stay healthy, he might just prove the security blanket possession receiver that Joe Flacco has pined after since losing Dennis Pitta.
I'm sure there are many in Baltimore who have given up hope on this Ravens team after last week's heartbreaking loss, but the Ravens appear to have just as good a (if not better) than any other team in their division.
DON'T LOSE HOPE NOW, RAVENS FANS
A WIN THIS WEEK WILL GO A LONG WAY
TO LOCKING UP A PLAYOFF SPOT,
AND A LOSS WON'T KNOCK THE RAVENS OUT
STAY TUNED FOR WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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