The news of Haloti Ngata's 4-game suspension for the use of Adderall did not shock or anger me as much as I believe it did to many other Ravens fans. Ngata made a great number of impact plays in the first half of this season. Through the first 8 games he had more passes defensed and interceptions than Richard Sherman and J.J. Watt. Ngata, however, has displayed a troubling trend for nearly the last 4 seasons: his body wears down, and his productivity tends to wane in the second half of each season.
I read a pair of statistics today that the Ravens defense with Haloti Ngata on the field allowed a an average QBR of 71 for opposing quarterbacks thus far this season. With Haloti Ngata OFF the field, however, the Ravens defense has held opposing quarterbacks to an average QBR of 47. In addition, the Ravens run defense performs better with Haloti Ngata OFF the field (3.1 yards per carry allowed) than when Ngata is ON the field (3.8 yards per carry allowed). A large reason for this discrepancy is the play of Timmy Jernigan. Jernigan is rated as the third best run defending defensive tackle in the NFL--and it's his rookie season. When Jernigan is on the field, for example, he has been credited with nearly one quarter of the tackles on running plays. The Ravens got Jernigan in the second round of the draft, and he has clearly been overshadowed by the immediate greatness of C.J. Mosley, but Jernigan is nearly as talented effective. The Ravens got first round talent when they were fortunate enough to be able to pick Timmy in the second round. Timmy.--haha--it's rather amusing to think of a thunderous, explosive athlete being affectionately referred to as Timmy, but he's our guy and I doubt we'll see a ton of drop off while he fills Ngata's enormous shoes.
I hope that the news of Haloti Ngata's suspension does not make Ravens fans feel any less fired up about Joe and boys heading south for the winter to take down another Florida team. The Dolphins are clearly a quality team this season, and they can't be taken lightly. The Dolphins have, however, shown a profound weakness in their run defense in the last two weeks much the same way the Ravens have shown a profound weakness in their pass defense during that same period of time. Both teams are 1-1 in their last two games, and that has much to do with the quality of the opponents they've faced. The Dolphins faced a high-octane offense with an elite quarterback in Denver and narrowly lost. The Ravens faced an elite quarterback last week and lost by the slimmest possible margin after leading for 58 minutes of the game. The Dolphins then narrowly defeated a losing Jets team last monday while the Ravens somewhat narrowly defeated a losing Saints team two weeks ago. The question that must be answered is which one of these teams is more suited to take greater advantage of their opponent's glaring weakness on Sunday?
The Dolphins have allowed 478 rushing yards in the last two weeks, and the Ravens have allowed 803 passing yards over the last two weeks--I don't know which is more embarrassing, but I'm inclined to go with the larger number. On second thought, the 478 yards on the ground in two weeks is an average of 239 rushing yards allowed per game. Allowing nearly 240 rushing yards in a game is far more unusual than than allowing 400 passing yards in a game. With that said, it really doesn't matter which statistic is worse. What matters instead is that both teams were able to win in spite of this weakness as long as they weren't facing an elite quarterback.
Neither Ryan Tannehill nor Joe Flacco is generally regarded as elite by the vast majority of NFL fans. Flacco is, at this point, a grizzled veteran in the midst of one of the best statistical seasons of his career, but he still is not able to consistently carry a team on his back in the fashion of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Flacco's gift is his control over his emotions during times of intense pressure. Like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco has often been a mediocre quarterback in the regular season but an absolute post-season hero when winter rolls around. The Ravens used to always MAKE the post-season through the first 5 years of Flacco's career, so he always had a chance to show what he could do under that type of pressure. Last season, however, the Ravens were simply too flawed to make the playoffs, and suddenly many criticized Flacco as not being worth the money he was paid during the off-season. Whether Joe is worth that money is clearly debatable, but he has shown this season that he can effectively lead one of the NFL's top offenses under the guidance and direction of Gary Kubiak.
Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has shown flashes of greatness over the last two seasons. Like Flacco, Tannehill struggled to stay upright in 2013 due to incredibly shoddy protection from his offensive line. The Dolphins have changed their offense for this season to take advantage of Tannehill's skill set and athleticism that was showcased during his college career as a wide receiver. The Dolphins now run a college style option offense that features a good amount of Ryan Tannehill running the football...and he's good at it.
The bad thing for the Dolphins? The Ravens excel at stopping the run. The good thing for the Ravens? The Dolphins are bad at deep passes. One would think that with such a deep threat with elite speed as Mike Wallace, a name with which the Ravens are quite familiar, the Dolphins would be reasonably effective on intermediate and long passes. Lo and behold, the Dolphins don't have a single receiver with 700 or more receiving yards yet, and Mike Wallace has only averaged 12.2 yards per reception. Torrey Smith, by contrast, only has roughly 50 less receiving yards than Mike Wallace, but he has averaged 16.0 yards per reception in only 38 catches. Steve Smith is not far behind Torrey with 15.2 yards per reception, but he has 54 catches on the season for 819 yards. With that said, Joe Flacco has only slightly over 100 more passing yards than Ryan Tannehill this season, and the Dolphins short passing game has often been wickedly effective in 2014.
With all things considered, I like the Ravens odds in defending and ultimately outscoring the Dolphins offense. The Ravens tend to struggle most in coverage when receivers get behind their entire secondary. In the case of Ryan Tannehill, he likely won't stand in the pocket long enough to find receivers that far down-field. He will, if the rest of the season is a good predictor, look to the run first. When in passing situations, Tannehill will attempt to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly, in hopes that they'll be able to use their speed and athleticism to make moves up-field after the catch. This should play into the hands of the Ravens defensive backs as they fare much better when making plays moving forward rather than when backpedaling or staying with receivers stride for stride on deep routes. To be fair, however, the Dolphins' offensive strategy has won them exactly the same number of games as the Ravens thus far.
The Dolphins' defensive strength has been their elite pass defense which ranks 2nd in the NFL. The Ravens very well may struggle at times to move the football through the air on Sunday, and it's possible that will keep Baltimore one-dimensional. The thing that astounded me, however, about the Dolphins defense wasn't the fact that they have given up such an incredible number of rushing yards in the last two weeks. It is, instead, the fact that they gave up over 200 rushing yards in the first half alone to a Jets team that ranks dead last in the league in passing. In other words, the Dolphins KNEW the Jets were going to run the ball and they still weren't able to stop them from amassing a gargantuan number of yards on the ground. What does that mean for the Ravens? It means that the Dolphins will likely have to commit to stuffing the run in the same fashion they did against the Jets, but in the case of the Ravens, there will actually be a competent quarterback and a serious receiving corps to which he can deliver the football when the Jets over-commit to stopping the run. The Dolphins often heavily stacked the box against the Jets, but the Jets were so incredibly inept in the passing game that they had little choice but to continue to pound the rock.
I would like to think that the Dolphins offense plays right into the strength of the Ravens defense and that the strength of the Ravens offense will likely be able to exploit a glaring weakness in the Dolphins defense, but we all know that nothing is so easily predicted this season. Both of these teams can put away a mediocre or bad team, and each of these teams has lost some heartbreaking games to teams with winning records. The fact is that the Ravens are a tad banged up and short-staffed for my liking. Torrey Smith will play, but he likely won't be 100%. Justin Forsett will also likely play, but he's listed as questionable and also likely won't be at 100%. Although Timmy Jernigan has performed well thus far this season, his explosive play may not be AS explosive if he's playing nearly the entire game with Haloti Ngata not taking a large percentage of the snaps. I don't expect a big win for the Ravens if they do win at all.
One encouraging statistic is that the Ravens offensive numbers on the road this season have been dramatically more impressive than at any time in recent years. The Ravens score an average of 27.5 points on the road, and the Dolphins score an average of 26.2 points at home. It's possible that average is less relevant in this game because the Ravens' road scoring average has been skewed by a weak schedule against teams with some of the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Ravens STILL lost half of their road games.
This game will almost certainly come down to who possesses the ball and scores last. This game is equally big for both teams as they both have the same record and are vying for playoff spots. Both teams have ferocious pass rushers such as Elvis Dumervil and Cameron Wake, but each quarterback will play a starkly contrasting styles of football. C.J. Mosley's ability to cover sideline to sideline will likely lead to some spectacular plays against Ryan Tannehill. Miami has never been a hostile environment to Joe Flacco as he has won in all 3 of his trips there and has never in his career lost to the Dolphins. Ugh, so many factors to consider! Let's just get to the picks already.
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Steelers and Bengals have both been impressive and also puzzlingly inept this season depending on the week. The Bengals have a single home loss on the season and are on a 3 game winning streak. Neither of these teams, however, is consistently good enough to analyze with pinpoint accuracy. I'll simply go with the odds: the Bengals' record at home is better than the Steelers record on the road. The Steelers have lost 2 of their last 3 games, and nearly lost to an awful Titans team two weeks ago. BENGALS 33-27
RAMS AT REDSKINS- RAMS 31-10
GIANTS AT TITANS- Congrats, Giants. A game you can finally win since Mettenberger is banged up. GIANTS 24-21
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Saints offense appears to have picked up some steam since their loss to the Bengals a few weeks ago. I can't see Cam Newton coming even close to outscoring Drew Brees in Nola. SAINTS 34-17
JETS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings aren't great, but the Jets are far worse. VIKINGS 21-13
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- I told myself after watching the Ravens lose last Sunday that there would be no way I would pick them to win on the road the following week...then I watched the Dolphins play the Jets. Sure, the Dolphins held the Jets to only 13 points, but the Dolphins also only scored 16. 5 of the Dolphins' 7 wins came against teams that either ranked in the bottom 5 in running the football, stopping the run, or both. 3 of the 5 of the Dolphins losses came against teams in the top 5 in run defense, and one of their other two losses came against a Chiefs team that has an elite rushing attack. Even a team as bad as the Jets was able to stand toe to toe with the Dolphins by virtue of the fact that they're rank 3rd in rushing yards per game, and 3rd in run defense. The moral of the story? A team that can run the football and stop the run as well as occasionally pass the football as needed, can beat the Dolphins. I'm not being a homer, this is just how the Dolphins' season has gone thus far. The Ravens have a more balanced offensive attack and a run defense that will force Tannehill into 3rd and long situations. I expect some big hits on the second year starter, and little through the air. This will be a bigger day for Suggs than Dumervil. The Ravens will sustain long drives, and the Dolphins will run out their own clock attempting to catch up. RAVENS 27-21
COLTS AT BROWNS- The Colts don't always have much of a defense, especially not on the road. The Browns, however, are in a metaphorical tailspin with the drop in performance of Brian Hoyer. The Browns may still win a game or two of their remaining schedule, but one of them won't be this week. COLTS 33-20
BUCCANEERS AT LIONS- LIONS 23-13
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- This is a game that will confuse a great many people. The Texans are clearly the better team, but the Jaguars will make this a game in the first half. In the end, however, this won't be too exciting. TEXANS 38-19
BILLS AT BRONCOS- The Bills defense is very good. The problem is that defense only gets you so far when offense can't perform against teams with winning records. BRONCOS 35-21
CHIEFS AT CARDINALS- I simply can't bet on this Cardinals team with no Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald with injury issues. CHIEFS 20-17
SEAHAWKS AT EAGLES- The Eagles offense is elite. They even rank 11th against the run. Their pass defense allows a decent number of yards per game, but it tends to make up for it with turnovers. That's ok because the Seahawks can't really throw the ball anyway. The Legion of Boom will get a wake-up call in a trip across the country to a frigid, hostile environment. 31-21
49ERS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders can't stop the run and that is the biggest reason they'll lose this game. 49ERS 28-10
PATRIOTS AT CHARGERS- The Patriots will do what the Ravens couldn't. They'll outscore Philip Rivers, and they'll challenge his wide receivers. PATRIOTS 42-21
FALCONS AT PACKERS- So the Falcons are a dome team with a terrible pass defense. I wonder what that means against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Wisconsin...hmmmm 41-17
If the Ravens lose this game, it's not the end of the line for their playoff hopes. Winning 10 games will likely get them a playoff berth, but it will be far easier to WIN those 10 games if they win on Sunday. It's difficult to tell how healthy Justin Forsett and Torrey Smith are right now, but I don't think there's any way that they won't both start. Mike Wallace wasn't exactly impressing anyone with his hands last Monday, and Brian Hartline has been limited most of this season. Joe Flacco will lean on the running game and the physicality of Steve Smith to move the chains and get hard-fought first downs. Smith doesn't show up every game, but it seems as though he shows up at least every OTHER game. He had one catch last week, but because of Torrey's knee, the old guy is bound to get far more targets. Asa Jackson has just been added to the 53 man roster, and he should be able to do some damage as a nickel corner. I expect his presence to add a greater impact with each successive week of the last month of the regular season. It's entirely possible that he supplants Anthony Levine as the #2 corner to push Levine to the nickel position within the next two weeks, but we'll see just how long it takes Jackson to return to full game speed.
THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS
THIS IS DECEMBER, THIS IS CRUNCH TIME
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOOD ENOUGH, THEY'LL
FIND A WAY TO WIN--IF NOT, THEN THIS TEAM
HAS ONLY ONE MAJOR AREA IN WHICH TO
MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES IN THE OFF-SEASON.
HAVE FAITH, BALTIMORE
THE BIRDS KNOW HOW TO COME THROUGH WHEN IT TRULY MATTERS
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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