The Ravens won 7 of their first 12 games this season, but no win felt quite as triumphant and season-defining as last Sunday's victory on the road over a formidable Dolphins team. The Dolphins entered the game with the same record as the Ravens, but the Dolphins, unlike the Ravens up to that point, had won a handful of games against quality opponents including the Patriots, Chargers, and Bills. To go on the road and win where both the Chargers and Patriots failed is no small task. The NFL is typically saturated with parity, and it's particularly difficult to predict who will this season as many teams have displayed profound inconsistency. This particular win over the Dolphins, however, suggests more than just league parity to me--it suggests the Ravens have finally found their strategy to effectively deal with incredible turnover in the secondary.
The Ravens secondary will continue to be at least somewhat of a problem going forward, I'm sure. Without Jimmy Smith and a fully healthy Lardarius Webb, the Ravens simply won't have anyone who can truly match up against elite receivers catching passes from elite quarterbacks. Dean Pees made great defensive adjustments to put the defensive backs at his disposal in the best positions to prevent a quick release from Ryan Tannehill and allow the ferocious Ravens pass rush to get after the young signal caller. The Ravens contained Tannehill and sacked him a total of 6 times.
The Ravens defense almost totally shut down the Dolphins offense after the first quarter, but the true triumph was in the Ravens offensive production against the 2nd ranked secondary in the NFL. Joe Flacco was masterful in picking apart an elite secondary without even a single pass to Torrey Smith who sat out most of the game due to knee swelling. Flacco, instead, spread the football out to the likes of Steve Smith Sr., Marlon Brown, Phillip Supernaw, and Kamar Aiken. It appeared as though the Dolphins were committed to stopping the Ravens rushing attack, so Joe Flacco was turned loose and put up nearly 280 yards and two passing touchdowns along with one rushing TD.
Joe Flacco's rushing TD is a reflection of one of the best aspects of this Ravens offense in 2014. Flacco has successfully converted 11 out of 12 attempts at quarterback sneaks on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 situations. John Harbaugh was SO confident in the effectiveness of this play that he had Joe go for it on 4th and 1 from fairly deep in their own territory early in the second half of the game against the Dolphins. It's possible that this play could ultimately become stale if the Ravens overuse it and teams assume the Ravens will run it on most short yardage situations, but the Ravens have attempted this play less than one time per game this season. Maybe it doesn't matter if teams assume the Ravens will have Joe sneak it in. Maybe Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are threatening enough that teams can't bank on simply stuffing the QB at the line, and maybe the Ravens offensive line is so physical this season that it has been able to impose its will regardless of whether or not opposing defenses can see a QB sneak coming. One way or another, it's working.
The Ravens shouldn't have a tremendous amount of difficulty imposing their will on the Jaguars. The Jags are near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical category, and they will be without their leading rusher, Dennard Robinson. The Jaguars do have some talented defensive linemen from last year's Super Bowl Champion Seahawks team, and that has often meant a slow start for opposing teams. In the second halves of games, however, most teams have pulled thunderously away from the Jaguars. The Ravens pass-rushing tandem of Suggs and Dumervil could potentially post more sacks than last week as the Jaguars have given up the most sacks of any team in the league...by far. It's not inconceivable that Dumervil could finish Sunday with roughly 20 sacks on the season, and Suggs could move into double digits.
Possibly the most important thing about this weekend's game against the Jaguars is not the prospect of a big win, but the potential of what a big lead could allow the Ravens to do. If the Ravens find themselves beating the Jaguars by a great point margin long before the game is over, the coaching staff could potentially afford to sit players with minor, nagging injuries. I don't expect Torrey Smith to play much if at all. The Ravens have a talented and well-fortified enough receiving corps to put up big passing numbers without him. It's possible that the Ravens could also give Justin Forsett a break after a large lead has been established. Forsett has played incredibly well this season, but he'll need relatively fresh legs if the Ravens hope to get to and win some games in the playoffs. The Ravens should not and will not overlook this game, but there's no reason to wear down key players if it's not absolutely necessary. The Ravens beat the Dolphins on the road without Torrey Smith seriously involved--they can CERTAINLY beat the Jaguars at HOME without him. It appears as though this game as come at precisely the right time. On to the picks!
WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS
STEELERS AT FALCONS- The outcome of this game likely will depend on the health of the Falcons receiving corps. Julio Jones leads the NFL with over 1400 receiving yards, but suffered a hip injury late against the Packers on Monday. Jones has not practiced all week and is listed as questionable. The Steelers have had trouble with NFC South teams as they lost to both the Buccaneers and Saints, but their all-time against the Falcons is 12-2-1. The temptation is always there to give the Steelers the nod because of just how well that offense plays when it's clicking...but it has failed to click against some confusingly bad teams. My heart tells me this will be the upset for which Ravens fans have been praying, but my brain tells me the Falcons have too little defense, a banged up receiving corps, and only a single win over a non-divisional opponent all season. I'm daring Matt Ryan to show us his team belongs in the playoffs. Prove me wrong, Falcons, please prove me wrong. STEELERS 38-35
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- There are probably multiple reasons why this game should be cancelled. GIANTS 26-21
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- The Dolphins beat the Patriots earlier this season, but they just lost a starting safety, Louis Delmas. The Patriots have also found a rhythm recently. Oh, and the first time these two teams met, the Dolphins still had their Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle. Divisional games are never easy to predict, but I don't often bet against the Patriots at home. PATRIOTS 28-21
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- It has been less than a month since the Raiders beat the Chiefs in Oakland. The Chiefs should be stronger at home, but the Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 games in Kansas City. The Chiefs have lost 3 in a row and the Raiders have won 2 out of their last 3. This game isn't irrelevant because the Chiefs are still a wildcard contender, but I think the Raiders pull another upset here. RAIDERS 23-21
TEXANS AT COLTS- The Texans aren't a horrible team this season, but they've actually never beaten the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts can clinch the division with a win this week. This Colts team lost too much when it lost Ahmad Bradshaw. I can't see them winning more than a single game in the playoffs, but they'll win this week...barely. COLTS 31-24
JAGUARS AT RAVENS- Bortles has committed 21 turnovers this season and only thrown 10 touchdown passes. Without Denard Robinson, the Jaguars have no notable impact players on offense. The Jags defense will come out swinging in the first quarter with an energized defensive line, but the Ravens will start to finish drives in the second quarter, and the game will be blown wide open within the first 8 minutes of the second half. Joe Flacco is going to have fun spreading the ball around to young receivers again. RAVENS 35-10
PACKERS AT BILLS- The Packers are going to struggle to score in Buffalo against this Bills defense. I saw almost no defense from the Packers at HOME against the Falcons, and Eddie Lacy might not even play in this game. I'm going for an upset here. BILLS 28-27
BUCCANEER AT PANTHERS- Can't see the Panthers winning this without Cam Newton, but the Buccaneers are horrible so who knows? BUCCANEERS 20-13
BENGALS AT BROWNS- This is probably the toughest game of the week to pick. The Browns beat the Bengals DOWN in Cincy not too long ago, but Johnny Manziel is starting for the Browns this week, and that means the offense will take on a totally different form. The Bengals MUST win this game, and the Browns MUST win this game. I have no usable statistics or reason to suggest one way or another in regards to the Browns offense with Johnny Manziel. Who knows if he'll be accurate or if he'll be able to read the Bengals defense well? I certainly don't. I do know that the Browns defense did extremely well against the Bengals offense in Cincy; it should be able to do so again in Cleveland. BROWNS 23-17
JETS AT TITANS- Ugh, I feel as though I'm wasting time just typing this. Part of the reason that we see so many teams neck and neck in the playoffs race is because there is a corresponding group of teams with almost no wins on the season. The Jets defense is better than that of the Titans, and the Jets SHOULD be able to run the ball well enough to win in Tennessee. JETS 27-21
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Broncos usually beat the Chargers, but something doesn't seem right about Peyton Manning. Hell, the Ravens could really use a good outing from Manning to keep the Chargers out of the way in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Broncos have the 2nd ranked run defense in the league and the 14th ranked pass defense in the league. Peyton has been in a little slump, but his quarterback rating in his first game against the Chargers this season was the highest QBR against the Chargers all season. This will be a VERY close game. BRONCOS 31-28
VIKINGS AT LIONS- The Vikings have no beaten a team with a winning record at any point this season. LIONS 33-10
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- The 49ers haven't been good in Seattle for years. Now the 49ers aren't even good in San Francisco. I bet you miss Charm City now, Anquan. #yourteamisfallingapartattheseams SEAHAWKS 34-13
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- The Eagles thumped the Cowboys the first time around in Dallas. I have little doubt they'll do so again in Philly. EAGLES 38-21
SAINTS AT BEARS- The Bears have a HORRIBLE pass defense, and Drew Brees is still pushing to win his abysmal division. No Brandon Marshall for the Bears. SAINTS 42-34
I'd love to see the Ravens hold the Jaguars to two scores or less this weekend and help re-establish their defense as one of the top units in the league in the category of points allowed per game. It won't be much of an accomplishment beating a horrible team at home, but a win is a win when it comes to the overall record. There is a distinct possibility that both the Bengals and Steelers lose this weekend, but if they don't, the Ravens still have a great shot at the playoffs and possibly even winning the division. 11 wins is the most that any AFC North team can amass this season, and the Ravens have the easiest schedule with which to do so.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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