As I stated in my Week 15 predictions, I didn't expect the Falcons to beat the Steelers without a healthy receiving corps. Matt Ryan and company still managed to make the game close in the 4th quarter, but a team with virtually no pass defense is not going to stop a Steelers team that now ranks 2nd in the league is passing yards per game--well done, Ben. I didn't truly believe that Johnny Manziel would put up an incredible performance in his first pro start, but I also didn't believe he would be nearly useless. It would have been great if one or both of the teams that faced the Bengals and Steelers this weekend could have pulled off an upset, but each team was clearly outmatched. The Ravens, instead, kept pace with the Steelers, and crept ever closer to a playoff berth of some kind. The Ravens have no control over how the Bengals and Steelers finish the regular season, but there are several MAJOR factors working in the Ravens favor as they make their final playoff push over the next two weeks.
Anyone watching the Ravens-Jaguars game likely heard news in the first half that the Texan's veteran quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, was carted off the field in Indianapolis. As it turned out, not only was Fitzpatrick injured, but he is out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. The Texans turned to their rookie 3rd string quarterback, Tom Savage, and found little success in the former 4th round draft pick. To make matters worse, Tom Savage took an impact to the knee near the end of the game, and is scheduled to get an MRI to assess the state of the joint. The Texans defense held an ordinarily potent Colts offense to a mere 17 points, but the Texans simply don't have the offensive production at this point to win games against competitive teams. J.J. Watt's phenomenal season might prove in vain as the Texans have little chance left at a playoff spot with Savage at the helm.
The Ravens have the hottest pass rush in the NFL, and there's nothing they'd love more than to face a rookie with limited experience, minimal talent, and an injured knee. Watt is a dominant force and more than deserving of the title Defensive Player of the Year, but the Texans have almost no serious pass rush aside from him. The Texans as a team have 31 sacks on the season--J.J. Watt has accounted for 16.5. The Ravens, on the other hand, have 45 total team sacks, and their pass rush only appears to be gaining momentum as Timmy Jernigan has seen increased playing time. Jernigan has 4 sacks in the last 5 games, and appears to be faster, more explosive pass rusher than Haloti Ngata at this point in Ngata's career. C.J. Mosley also appears occasionally ferocious in the pass rushing department whenever he is brought in on a blitz. Pernell McPhee has added 5.5 sacks on the season, and the Suggs-Dumervil tandem is now easily the greatest pass rushing pair in the NFL and in Ravens history with 28 sacks...and counting.
The Ravens can simply bring pressure from to many different athletes, and no rookie with a knee injury will be able to handle it. Arian Foster is still an effective runner, but the Ravens own the 4th ranked run defense in the league, and that run defense is even more effective when opposing passing attacks sputter. The Ravens offense appeared out of sync against the Jaguars, but as I mentioned in pre-game analysis, the Jaguars have two defensive linemen from last year's Super Bowl Champion Seahawks defense, and that has meant trouble in the first half for many teams this season. I won't judge the Ravens too harshly. The Steelers have an incredibly potent offense this season, and they only managed to beat the Jaguars 17-9. If the Ravens have a bad day and STILL win the game...it's a good day. With that said, the Texans simply don't have pass defense strong enough to slow down Flacco and a talented array of receivers. There are probably a fair number of other statistical and strategic reasons one could argue in favor of a Ravens victory next week, but this one is the most important and absolutely the bottom line: the Ravens have only lost too experienced, top-level quarterbacks this season and have feasted on everyone else. An injured rookie should be no different.
Another team currently starting a rookie quarterback is the Cleveland Browns. Unlike Tom Savage, Johnny Manziel has no injury-related excuse for being awful. I might have thought that Manziel would bring a level of mobility and athleticism to the quarterback position for the Browns, but if he brought those things on Sunday, he also forgot to bring an understanding of the offense and/or the ability to throw the ball to receivers. Johnny Manziel threw for 80 yards and two interceptions in his debut as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. I understand why the Browns organization felt the need to bench Brian Hoyer, but I hope this lays to rest any idea that Manziel would or will do ANY better than a veteran that won 7 games thus far this season. The Browns have almost no shot of getting to the playoffs at this point, and their odds appear to be miniscule if Johnny Football is put in charge of this offense. To make matters worse for the Browns, their top cornerback, Joe Haden, came out of the Sunday's game with a shoulder injury and never returned to action. The Ravens barely squeaked out a win on the road against the Browns earlier in the season, but now the Browns come to Baltimore, and they face long odds if they find themselves without their top defensive back and a serviceable signal caller.
The Ravens' road to 11 wins appears quite clear as both the Browns and Texans have major issues at the quarterback position and possess little chance at a trip to the post-season for motivation to win in the final weeks of the season. The Ravens can't choose how well the Bengals and Steelers do in the next two weeks, but both AFC North rivals have much tougher obstacles awaiting them in order to secure a playoff spot. The Bengals must play the Broncos in Cincinnati next Sunday, and although Peyton Manning has been sick recently, Denver continues to win one way or another. The Broncos clinched the AFC West division on Sunday with their second win over the Chargers, but they'll need to win one more game to secure at least a second seed in the playoffs and a first round bye. The Patriots currently have the same record as the Broncos, but the Patriots own a tiebreaker over Peyton Manning and company because of their head-to-head victory in Week 9. New England has already beaten both of the teams left on their schedule, but they only beat the Jets by a single point in Foxboro earlier this season, and the Bills looked defensively impressive in their win today over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. If the Patriots lose either one of those games, the Broncos could potentially secure a #1 seed and guaranteed home-field advantage through the playoffs if they can beat both the Bengals and Raiders...so let's hope they beat the Bengals next weekend.
If the Bengals find a way to beat the Broncos next weekend, then at least they'll face the tough task of beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Steelers only recently thumped the Bengals 42-21 in Cincinnati, so this does not appear a favorable match-up for Marvin Lewis' team to end the season. I fully expect the Steelers to win that game, but the Steelers have been incredibly difficult to predict this season, and they could easily split with the Bengals. Why do I say this? Well the Steelers appeared to once again have the Browns number in Week 1, but then the Browns beat Pittsburgh to a pulp in their second meeting. The Ravens appeared to have the Steelers all figured out win Week 2, but then the Ravens traveled to the Steel City and lost by an equally alarming margin. The Steelers, thus, have split with all of the divisional rivals that they've played twice so far, so who knows what could happen. With that said, the prospect of the Bengals being fortunate enough to win out appear razor thin. In other words, the Bengals might find a way to outscore a sniffling Peyton or they might rise to the occasion and beat the Steelers, but they likely won't do both.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have two home games to finish the season, and neither game is against an easy team. The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh in Week 16, and that could be more of a headache for Steelers fans than many probably realize. The Chiefs have a poor run defense, and that should certainly work in the Steelers' favor, but the Steelers also have a recent history of losing upset games to the Chiefs such as in 2009 and 2012. I refuse to place any stock in teams of years past, but this Chiefs team has a potent rushing attack and only one less win than the Steelers.
What does this all mean for the Ravens? Well the ideal scenario for baltimore is that the Bengals and Steelers each lose at least one more game while the Ravens beat two weak teams to finish 11-5. The great thing for the Ravens is that at least one of these AFC North rivals HAS to lose in the final week of the season because they both play one another. If the Steelers win out, however, they win the division and home-field advantage in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. If the Bengals lose to the Broncos but find a way to beat the Steelers Week 17, the Ravens will win the division as long as they handle business against the Texans and Browns.
The Ravens are in control of their own destiny. If they win both of their remaining games, they are guaranteed at LEAST a playoff spot. If I had to guess as to which scenario will likely occur, I would say that the Steelers will win out, win the division, the Ravens will win out win the 5th seed wildcard spot, and the Bengals will lose out leaving their playoff fate in the hands of the Chargers who could easily go 10-6 and snag the final wildcard spot leaving the Bengals at home for the first time in 4 years. I'll admit that I'm still upset that the Ravens were one first down away from beating the Chargers and making a 12-4 season well within reach, but there's no looking back now. If the Ravens get into the playoffs, they simply can't fear any opponent. Yes, getting home-field advantage is fantastic, but Joe Flacco has 7 post-season road wins and only two post-season home wins. To put it bluntly, if this team can't go on the road and beat everyone in their path in the playoffs, they simply don't deserve to be Super Champions. I don't think anyone is oroclaiming the Ravens Super Bowl favorites at the moment...but then again, the Ravens were underdogs at nearly every stage of their two Super Bowl runs. Baltimore must have a fighter's mentality of not being afraid to step into the ring with anyone if hope to upset the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning once again.
PROBLEMS IN THE SECONDARY?
Much has been said about the Ravens' weak secondary this season. The loss of 5 different cornerbacks and the constant rotation of safeties has meant Baltimore has had to rely on a patchwork pass defense. Top tier quarterbacks such as Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger have put up massive yardage totals through the air against our beloved defense, and some believe this team simply can't beat a team featuring an elite QB. There is, however, a lot more to it than that.
There is no question that this is the worst secondary in Ravens history. Inconsistent safety play has, in the past, helped to cover up for a relatively weak crew of starting corners such as Dominique Foxworth and Fabian Washington. The Ravens no longer have the greatest safety in NFL history patrolling the middle of the field. They, instead, have Will Hill, Jeromy Miles, and Darian Stewart. Will Hill has begun to settle in and even had some flashes of brilliance. Jeromy Miles has been solid at times, and Darian Stewart has been embarrassing except for his blocked punt that led to a touchdown yesterday.
There was one bright spot in the Ravens secondary yesterday, and that was Rashaan Melvin. Melvin had never played in an actual NFL game in his life. He had injury issues that led to him being bounced around practice squads. The young guy has all the physical tools, however, to be a serious asset to this team. He's 6'2" 193 pounds and ran a 4.44 combine forty yard dash. As soon as Asa Jackson went down with a PCL injury, Melvin came in and immediately made an impact. The big-bodied corner made 5 tackles and 1 pass breakup while playing to the energy of the crowd like a veteran. Who knows how a guy with such little actual game experience will do against more talented receivers, but he appeared far more effective yesterday than Asa Jackson did before he exited with his injury. We'll know more about the young defensive back's abilities over the next two weeks.
Regardless of poor performance in the secondary, though, the Ravens still have the build of a championship team in a number of respects. Four of the last seven Super Bowl Champions had secondaries ranked near the bottom of the league, but possessed dominant pass rushes to help cover up for issues on the back end. The Ravens have a top offense, a top run defense, and some of the best pass protection in the league. They also have the greatest road quarterback in NFL post-season history. Joe Flacco is having the best statistical season of his career. He ranks 5th in overall QBR ahead of Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Joe ranks behind only Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Tom Brady.
I think one thing that most people have not considered when speaking about the Ravens losses to elite quarterbacks is what exactly those quarterbacks had in common aside from being elite. Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees are all rather mobile quarterbacks that excel at extending plays with their legs. The Ravens likely won't face Brees (not that they'd be afraid to) and there's a decent chance they won't face Philip Rivers in the playoffs. Andrew Luck is far less of a threat without Ahmad Bradshaw, and that leaves only Ben Roethlisberger as a major mobile/elite threat to the Ravens in the post-season. One might worry that the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would carve up the Ravens (and they very well may do so) but neither has the mobility to evade a harrowing lineup of Ravens pass rushers. I, in fact, would LOVE the Ravens to travel once again to Denver to face the Broncos. Peyton Manning has looked off as of late, and his ability to play in cold weather has proven to be limited in recent years. Going into Foxboro to face the Patriots is no easy task, but the Ravens are 2-1 in Foxboro in the playoffs, and Joe Flacco has no fear of that venue. If the Ravens can simply find secondary personnel combination that allows pass rushers time to get to elite quarterbacks, I like the Ravens odds of winning games this post-season.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE PLAYOFFS
THIS IS A DANGEROUS TEAM WHEN IT'S ALL ON THE LINE
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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