Earlier this season I mentioned not knowing whether the Texans would have an advantage against the Ravens because of their familiarity with Gary Kubiak's offense or whether Gary Kubiak would have an advantage attacking the defense of the team of which he was head coach for 8 seasons. It's difficult to know the answer to that question, but it may not matter. The Texans appear too riddled with key injuries to stop a Ravens team absolutely hell-bent on a return to the playoffs. The Texans, in fact, have only beaten the Ravens once in the history of both teams, and that defeat didn't ultimately impede the Ravens as they won the Super Bowl that season.
The Texans appeared relatively formidable in recent weeks with Ryan Fitzpatrick back in the driver's seat of the Houston offense--then he broke his leg. Tom Savage took over for Fitzpatrick last Sunday and proceeded to injure his knee one of the final offensive snaps of the game. The Texans picked up Case Keenum off of the Rams' practice squad, and now the Texans must decide between a quarterback who lost all nine games he started last season (Case Keenum) and a quarterback with over twice as many turnovers as touchdowns in his career (Thad Lewis). These are not ideal candidates to lead desperate team in final desperate effort to secure an unlikely playoff berth. Beyond the aforementioned fallen quarterbacks, the Texans had several key weapons miss from practice on Thursday. DeAndre Hopkins is listed as day-to-day, and I have almost never seen a player listed with that distinction actually proceed to play that same week. The Texan's tight end, Garrett Graham will be out with a high ankle sprain once again this weekend. Jonathan Joseph, Mike Mohammed, and Xavier Su'a-Filo all have yet to practice this week.
The Ravens can't pretend as though THEY are operating at full strength with the calamitous volume of turnover in their secondary, but the core of their defense is healthy and so is that of the offense. The Ravens don't have to worry about the health of their quarterback going into Sunday, and despite the presence of J.J. Watt, Joe Flacco should feel fairly comfortable with the protection of his offensive line. Flacco, after all, ranks as the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL behind Peyton Manning. The Ravens offensive line has only allowed Flacco to be sacked 16 times this season, while last season he was sacked a whopping 48 times which ranked him 2nd most sacked QB in the league. J.J. Watt will undoubtedly make plays, but his presence wasn't enough to beat a MUCH worse Ravens team last season, and I doubt it'll be enough to overcome unusually dire circumstances at the Texans quarterback position.
If Ryan Fitzpatrick were facing the Ravens this week, I would be fairly nervous heading into this weekend. The Ravens truly lucked out with his absence. Last weekend's uncomfortably close win over the Jaguars at home should hopefully remind us, however, that games are played and won on the field and not on paper. The idea that either Case Keenum or Thad Lewis will have what it takes to evade Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Timmy Jernigan, Pernell McPhee, and C.J. Mosley just doesn't seem realistic. This is arguably the greatest set up pass rushers during John Harbaugh's tenure in Baltimore. The Ravens clearly have issues at the corner position, but their issues at safety have been relatively solidified as of late with Will Hill playing well at free safety and Jeromy Miles holding down the strong safety position.
It's likely that the Texans will look to run the football early to take pressure off whichever quarterback is ultimately chosen to start, but the elite Ravens run defense should have little trouble handing a somewhat injured Arian Foster. The Ravens should be able to force the Texans into 3rd and long passing situations wherein the likes of Suggs and Dumervil will terrorize an untalented or inexperienced quarterback. The Texans will get Andre Johnson back after he missed time for a concussion, but he's not nearly as explosive as in his 20s, and the Ravens haven't typically had unusual trouble making him a relative non-factor. The Texans' true number one receiver doesn't appear as though he'll play with an ankle injury. DeAndre Hopkins accounts for 1187 of the Texan's receiving yards this season, and his absence would virtually eliminate the Texans deep passing option.
The Ravens offense will be looking to bounce back after a poor showing last week against the Jaguars. We should expect to see Joe Flacco spread the ball out to the likes of Marlon Brown, Torrey Smith, Michael Campanaro, Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, and Kyle Juszczyk as well as a healthy dose of Forsett and Pierce. Teams can no longer simply double team Torrey Smith to halt this Ravens offense as was the case last season.
There are teams in the league built to beat the Baltimore Ravens. Those teams have athletic, top-tier quarterbacks with great receiving weapons as well as the the ability to stop the run and rush the passer. The Texans are not one of those teams. Houston has the 25th pass offense in the league, and their pass defense is ranked 27th. Almost all of the Texans' offensive weapons are dealing with nagging injuries, and the man who will deliver them the ball has not yet played a snap of football for the Texans this season. Case Keenum has the most experience in this system, but he has only ever lost football games in his professional career. I don't expect the Texans to simply roll over, and every road game in the NFL is a serious challenge. The Ravens, however, appear too dialed-in to lose to a team dealing with such incredible turmoil at key positions. Ok, time for this week's picks!
WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have fallen apart. The Eagles are desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, and the Redskins simply won't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Chip Kelly's system. EAGLES 31-21
CHARGERS AT 49ERS- The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen, and both Philip Rivers and Ryan Matthews are banged up. The 49ers don't have much to play for at this point other than pride, but this is a game they can win. The 49ers still have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league and the 8th ranked run defense in the league. This prediction might be a touch of wishful thinking, but Rivers should have problems without his best deep threat and a hobbled running back against an elite defense. 49ERS 19-14
VIKINGS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins just lost to two of the best teams in the AFC in the last two weeks. The Vikings have a good pass defense, but they won't have an answer for Lamar Miller. Tannehill will simply outperform Teddy Bridgewater this week. DOLPHINS 27-21
RAVENS AT TEXANS- I've read a lot of optimistic comments online from Texans fans that believe Case Keenum's return will solve the Texans' problems this week. I can't blame them for being unflinchingly optimistic about their favorite team (I usually am), but I didn't see anything from Keenum last season that would lead me to believe he could arrive back with his old team and turn things around with less than a week of practice. This game is personal for Gary Kubiak and Owen Daniels. Expect Flacco to target his tight end in the redzone 2-3 times this weekend. The Ravens offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, and Watt will have a tough time getting after the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL, especially off of play-action. RAVENS 28-17
LIONS AT BEARS- The Lions could win their division, and the Bears have given up. Cutler couldn't move the ball against the Saints--imagine how he'll be able to move the ball against the Lions. LIONS 33-16
BROWNS AT PANTHERS- As bad as they looked earlier in the season, the Panthers appear ready to fight to the bitter end with the Saints for their division title. By starting Johnny Manziel, the Browns have essentially given up on the season in hopes of giving Johnny as much game experience as possible for next year. Manziel embarrassed himself at home, and there's no way his first win comes on the road. PANTHERS 34-10
FALCONS AT SAINTS- These teams are rather similar, and this is one of the top three most difficult predictions of the week. The Falcons top wide receievers, Julio Jones and Roddy White, both have not practiced this week due to injuries. If both are healthy enough to be effective on Sunday, this game will be a shootout of epic proportions. It's tough to know that now, however, and I may ultimately amend this prediction before Sunday depending on the final status for the Falcons wideouts. For now I'll go with Brees. SAINTS 38-28
PACKERS AT BUCCANEERS- It the last prediction was one of the toughest of the week, this one is the easiest. PACKERS 42-14
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- The Steelers have faced only one top 10 defense this season, and they lost that game to the Jets. There's a chance that Tamba Hali and Justin Houston terrorize Ben Roethlisberger to the point that he makes major, game-changing errors that give the Chiefs a chance to win...but I'm not counting on it. The Steelers can run the football, and the Chiefs struggle to stop the run. If they go after Ben, Le'Veon Bell will run the ball right down the Chiefs' throats. If the Chiefs happen to catch the Steelers on one of their off-weeks to which they've been prone this season, then the Ravens get a huge boost in their chances of winning the division. If the Steelers beat the Chiefs, however, the Ravens take one step closer to at least securing a wildcard spot. I'd always love to see the Steelers lose, but either outcome can be viewed as positive for this game. STEELERS 34-21
PATRIOTS AT JETS- The last time the Jets faced this Patriots team, the game came down to a last minute drive that the Jets had hoped would culminate in a field goal to win the game. The Jets typically get one solid, hard-fought game against the Patriots each season--and one absolute blowout. This game is in New Jersey, but the Patriots are the only team playing for something. I'd love to be wrong about this one though. PATRIOTS 30-17
GIANTS AT RAMS- RAMS 24-21
BILLS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders haven't been bad at home recently, but defense travels well, and the Bills have one of the best defenses in the league. BILLS 27-16
COLTS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have only lost games at home this season, but the Colts have not impressed me recently. If the Colts can't score more than 17 points at home against the Texans, I have no idea how they plan to outscore the Cowboys on the road. COWBOYS 35-20
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks have rounded nearly back into their form from last season. The Cardinals will once again be unable to move the ball against the league's top ranked defense (by yardage). SEAHAWKS 20-13
BRONCOS AT BENGALS- Peyton Manning hasn't been himself as of late, but the Broncos just continue to win. They held a relatively potent Chargers offense to 10 points, and they scored 24 points against the Bills defense. The Broncos can run the football, and when they need to, they can pass the football as well as anyone in the league. I expect Peyton to be over whatever illness that ailed him last week. BRONCOS 24-20
If the Ravens win this week and the Chargers and Chiefs lose, the Ravens clinch at least a wildcard spot for the first time since 2012. If the Ravens win and the Bengals and Steelers both lose, however, the Ravens also clinch a playoff spot, and move into first place in the AFC North and only need to beat the Browns the following week to finish 11-5 and the AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS! Oddsmakers give the Ravens a 77% percent chance of returning to the playoffs this season, and I like those odds!
IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIIIME OF THE YEEEAR,
THERE'LL BE MUCH TOUCHDOWN THROWING,
AND SACK TOTALS GROWING,
WHILE RAVENS FANS CHEEEEEER,
IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIIIIIIIIIIME,
OF THE YEEEEEEEAR
HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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