I hope Patriots fans didn't feel TOO good about beating the Steelers at home. Obviously, a win is a win, but there were some alarming things that anyone who watched should have noticed about both the Steelers and the reigning world champs.
The Patriots allowed the Steelers to absolutely gash them with a 32 year old backup running back for 133 yards. The presence of Vince Wilfork is sorely missed in that front seven, and that could make it incredibly difficult for the Patriots to stop better teams from driving. The other thing that should scare the Patriots is that the Steelers had little chance to win in large part because of the fact that their kicker missed two field goals from well within 45 yards which ruined two early scoring drives. With a competent kicker, that game would have been incredibly close.
In the case of the Steelers, they can look forward to the return of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant within the next month as reasons for optimism that their team will improve immediately upon their return. It's also possible that pro bowl center Markice Pouncey will return at mid season or sometime in the second half, and that should give them a sizable boost as well. The Patriots, however, were operating with MOSTLY a full squad. Yes, they were missing Brandon LaFell, but their defense was healthy.
This is what the Patriots USED to look like around the end of the last decade up until maybe 2012. They had fantastic receiving weapons and an elite quarterback leading the charge, but their defense left many things to be desired...especially the secondary. All of that changed in 2014 with starting corners Revis and Browner. Suddenly defense was the thing keeping the Patriots in football games and they had their corners to thank in large part. After winning the Super Bowl, however, those starting corners and their nickel corner, Kyle Arrington, all bolted for other teams in free agency. Suddenly the Patriots found themselves giving up 351 passing yards at home to a team crippled by offensive suspensions.
Does this mean the Patriots won't win football games? Of COURSE not, but it does mean that they don't nearly have the type of complete team this season that they've always had when they've won Super Bowls. The Patriots defense could very well improve as the season progresses as well. It is, despite all of the controversy about alleged cheating, a well-coached football team. They still have good linebackers with young talent such as Jamie Collins, but the defensive line is suspect without its long-time anchor, and the secondary may simply not have the horses this season. It's a long season, and we'll see how that all shakes out. For now, the Patriots are 1-0, and the Steelers are 0-1.
As we move west, we find a Ravens team ready to face a team led by both their old offensive coordinator and a quarterback who has not lost to them in the regular season since 1998. Peyton Manning, in fact, obliterated the Ravens in Denver to begin the 2013 season, and he set a record with 7 passing touchdowns during the game. Peyton Manning is, after all, the master of the regular season, and great in warm weather. It is for these reasons that the vast majority of pundits have picked the Broncos to win this game. They very well may do so, but this may not be the Peyton Manning we've come to know for well over a decade and a half.
Peyton Manning has had a historic tendency to choke in the post-season, but last year his performance fell off long before the post-season began. Here we are one year later and Manning is one year older. Even just in the pre-season there was reason for alarm regarding Manning's arm strength and accuracy. I must admit that I didn't watch the Broncos' preseason games, but I happened upon an article published on NFL.com, and the video that accompanied it showed serious reasons for alarm if you're a Broncos fan. Take a look: PEYTON MANNING'S ARM STRENGTH SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED Now this certainly wouldn't be the first time Peyton Manning needed to shake off the rust in the pre-season, but it wasn't the first pre-season game, and it's not as though he doesn't have a high degree of familiarity with these receivers.
It IS possible, as the analyst in the video mentions, that Peyton has not yet become comfortable in Gary Kubiak's system, but I simply can't shake the memory of the Broncos having to lean on their running game for the last quarter of the regular season...and then of course Andrew Luck and the Colts absolutely demolishing the Broncos IN Denver in the playoffs. That doesn't mean that the Broncos are currently broken and battered, but there may be wear and tear on Peyton Manning's body that time can't fix...time and age appear to be the problem.
A more tangible reason for optimism if you're a Ravens fan is the absence of the Broncos Pro Bowl safety, T.J. Ward. The Ravens may not have field-stretching speed at the moment with the departure of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, as well as the absence of Breshad Perriman, but passing should be at least somewhat easier without an elite safety patrolling the secondary.
It's difficult to say whether Kubiak will have an advantage since he knows the Ravens or whether the Ravens will have an advantage knowing Kubiak. It may the case that Marc Trestman has thrown enough wrinkles in to reduce Kubiak's familiarity with what it is the Ravens do, but that's hard to gauge given the fact that the Ravens wouldn't tip their hand during the pre-season.
It's difficult and probably a mistake to base a prediction on our suppositions regarding the schematic decisions of NFL teams in Week 1. We, instead, have to look at personnel match-ups. I like the way the Ravens have fortified their secondary since the last time the Baltimore faced Denver in Denver. Jimmy Smith, Kyle Arrington, Lardarius Webb, Will Hill, and Kendrick Lewis all make up a collective upgrade over the until that took the field in Week 1 of 2013. Couple that with the Broncos' loss of Julius Thomas and diminished throwing velocity and accuracy of good ol' Pey Pey, and this could be a pleasant surprise for a large majority of football fans in the greater Baltimore area. Add to that the fact that 52 out of 53 Ravens on the active roster practiced Friday, and you've got yourself about as healthy a team as one can expect to have during an NFL season.
I know quite well that Peyton Manning is tough to beat at home and at the beginning of the season, but I know what this Ravens team is capable of doing. They're almost entirely healthy (with one speedy exception) and their offensive line should quite easily give Flacco the protection he needs to carve up the Broncos pass defense without T.J. Ward. This is a much better team that the one that Peyton blasted in Week 1 of 2013. They may not have their insanely fast deep threat, but they have weapons no glaring weak points.
WEEK 1 NFL PREDICTIONS
STEELERS AT PATRIOTS- Well I put my prediction of 28-17 on facebook, so I guess that still counts. It ended up being pretty damn close to my predicted score and exactly for the reasons I suggested about the Steelers defense being absolute garbage. So that one's done
PACKERS AT BEARS- The Packers aren't working with Jordy Nelson right now, but their system and the talented quarterback they have running it will make this game a laugher by the end. PACKERS 35-14
CHIEFS AT TEXANS- This one is tough. I'd say the Chiefs are a better team and the Texans don't have the quarterback position truly nailed down this year, but that Houston defense should be insane with Vince Wilfork clogging the middle, collapsing the pocket and taking pressure off the monster that is J.J. Watt. The Chiefs could seriously struggle to move the ball, and they don't have receiving talent to win this game. The Texans no longer have Andre Johnson, but DeAndre Hopkins is going to take a big step up this season. TEXANS 21-20
BROWNS AT JETS- This a contest not of who is better, but who sucks less. JETS 17-13
COLTS AT BILLS- I'm sold on the Bills' defense, and I'm NOT sold on the Colts' offensive line or their ability to play outside that dome. Can't say that the Bills have much in the way of a quarterback, but they'll have Shady McCoy this year, and Rex Ryan will absolutely enjoy playing with that new toy. BILLS 27-21
DOLPHINS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins aren't good at football. DeVante Parker and Big Suh could be the pieces that turn this Dolphins team into a real playoff contender this season. DOLPHINS 30-17
PANTHERS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars defense has some interesting pieces and occasionally looked good last year. Otherwise, however, they're a useless team. PANTHERS 23-13
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- The Legion of Boom didn't last long. Cary Williams is not serviceable anymore, and I have no idea what Seattle was thinking when they inked him to a deal. This is still a scary rushing team with a new, potent weapon in Jimmy Graham. The Rams often play the Seahawks tough at home, but the Rams don't have the offensive firepower to prevail in the end. SEAHAWKS 21-14
SAINTS AT CARDINALS- With Carson Palmer back healthy, the Cardinals will once again be one of the best teams in the NFC. The Saints? They're pretty bad on the road. CARDINALS 38-27
LIONS AT CHARGERS- It's tough to know what you're going to get with Philp Rivers from week to week, but I don't like the Lions away from Detroit. If Haloti Ngata were more consistently healthy, this might be different. CHARGERS 28-20
TITANS AT BUCCANEERS- Marcus Ariota and Dorial Green-Beckham should make the Bucs look bad...very bad...because they are very bad. TITANS 42-21
BENGALS AT RAIDERS- Nope, not this year, Oakland. BENGALS 45-10
RAVENS AT BRONCOS- With the return to health of all but one player on the Ravens active roster and the suspension of T.J. Ward, I gotta go with my sense of early season optimism and say the Ravens are going to be able to jam and cover the Broncos receivers, and get furious pressure on an aging Manning. He doesn't have the accuracy and arm strength anymore mount comebacks the way he did years ago. I could be very wrong with this one, but I think our boys get this done. RAVENS 28-27
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- I wonder if the Cowboys will once again be undefeated on the road and horrible at home. The Cowboys are unquestionably the better team, but that was a weird trend last year. COWBOYS 35-33
EAGLES AT THE FALCONS- I liked what I saw from the Eagles in the pre-season. The Falcons have never climbed back up to their pre-2013 status in my mind. EAGLES 38-21
VIKINGS AT 49ERS- The 49ers are depleted and a mess. Sorry Torrey, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson back to crush your dreams of success with the team that wanted to overpay you. Just kidding, we love Torrey and Q., but their team is doomed. VIKINGS 31-17
There's really no reason to take predictions to seriously in the first quarter of the season. We have zero statistics off of which to base these predictions, but at least we can say we went with what we were given and hopefully we'll get a majority correct. This is a league of parity so we'll always see upsets, but there are a good number of these picks I consider to be absolute slam dunks. Get ready for the FIRST FOOTBALL SUNDAY OF 2015!!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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