There has only been two weeks since the Ravens faced the Chargers in L.A., and somehow it doesn't matter that Philip Rivers has historically had almost no success in the playoffs; many pundits still predict a win for a team that just lost at home to the Ravens 22-10. It's not that the Chargers aren't a good team--they are. It's simply that they lack what it takes to beat the Ravens: a reasonably mobile quarterback.
Evading the Ravens pressure is no easy feat, but it certainly has been done this season. Patrick Mahomes did it juuuust enough to make one more play than the Ravens needed to allow to win in Kansas City, and Drew Brees did it repeatedly on 3rd and 4th downs to find Michael Thomas for critical drive-extending passes that ultimately made the difference in a game the Ravens lost by a single point. Two weeks ago, however, the Philip Rivers found no such luck. He looked slow and utterly bewildered by the ways the Ravens brought pressure to the point that his otherwise high-flying offense was held to a pedestrian 10 points.
It's highly likely that the Chargers will attempt to run an up-tempo offense in hopes of getting the Ravens defense on its heels and to prevent Baltimore from executing more sophisticated blitzes, but that will likely be hindered by deafening noise from what may prove to be one of the most motivated, raucous crowds in recent Ravens home game history. Beyond crowd noise, this game will feel as though it's being played at 10:00 AM for the Chargers as they are traveling nearly 3000 miles to play a 1:00PM game in the Eastern time zone. No one should be surprised if a team used to playing in southern California struggles to find an offensive rhythm against the top defense in the league in a cold, wet playoff environment in what functionally feels like the morning to them.
I have heard all week how the Chargers will have figured out the Ravens offense having already faced it once before. I am not entirely sure how they have some kind of advantage on that front considering the Ravens have also already seen the Chargers offense and will have had even more time to prepare for it as the Ravens never had to take a day to travel for this game. It certainly does make me nervous that Lamar Jackson has struggled to finish drives, but the Ravens still managed to dominate in total yards with 361 versus a disappointing 198 for the Chargers. The Ravens also had a slightly greater number of first downs and won the time of possession battle.
Despite appearing to be the better team nearly all night in their last meeting with the Chargers, the Ravens still found themselves being driven on by Philips Rivers and company before Patrick Onwassor had one of the most timely forced fumbles taken back for a touchdown in Ravens team history. The same was true last week against the Browns when it took an interception on 4th down to beat a Browns team that came storming back to make the city of Baltimore hold its collective breath. I would say that these isolated occurrences, but critical turnovers and defensive points have been so frequent in the second half of this season that they seem likely rather than lucky.
Many would point to the Ravens offense's ability to sustain drives and keep its defense well-rested and off the field as a reason for an increase in big-time impact defensive plays. I'm sure that has played a major factor, but I would actually point to the fact that this is the first stretch this season where both a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey have taken the field together. Before Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback, the Ravens had a healthy Marlon until he was injured. With Marlon out, the Ravens turned to Jimmy Smith, but he struggled in his first few weeks back and didn't start to round into form until he had played for about a month. As Jimmy got back up to speed and Marlon returned to the field, the Ravens defense suddenly started to look like the dominant unit it should have been all year, and having a pair of quality corners on the outside goes a long way to allow your pass-rushers to hunt and allows a defensive coordinator to bring pressure with more confidence.
There's simply no way the Chargers have gotten so significantly better in two weeks that they'll be able to totally flip the script of the last game and dominate the Ravens--right? Well there is one factor that must be accounted for when analyzing the Ravens: fumbles. Lamar Jackson has had a troubling number of fumbles that have stifled drives and allowed games to stay much closer than they could be. The fumble at the goal line last week against the Browns was baffling as it was only inches away from being a touchdown had Lamar not perplexingly pulled the ball back just as it was about to break the plane of the end zone. A major focus this week by the Ravens staff has to be reduce the odds of such mistakes and utilizing running backs and receivers more to take the pressure off of Lamar. The Ravens won the turnover battle 3-1 last time they played the Chargers, and they need to do it again.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'm not worried because even if the Chargers come out swinging and the Ravens find themselves down by 10-14 points late, they still have a quarterback sitting on the sidelines who can run an effective two-minute drill and is has ice in his veins in the playoffs. I'm confident the Ravens won't be forced to resort to putting Flacco back in, but if they need him, he's there. In the end, that's the reason the Ravens can run the offense they run without fear that they lose their starting quarterback. If they do lose their starting quarterback...well they have their starting quarterback who has more playoff wins than any quarterback in the league other than Tom Brady right now. Whatever happens here, the Ravens are prepared.
PREDICTION:
RAVENS 23-17
GET LOUD, BALTIMORE, THIS IS THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE EAGLES-BEARS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, January 5, 2019
NFL PLAYOFFS WILDCARD ROUND: SEAHAWKS AT COWBOYS
With the exception of the Patriots, no team has had as much post-season success during this decade as the Seahawks. There was a time where Seattle's success seemed to be securely rooted in its defensive prowess with a historically outrageous amount of talent suffocating even historically great offenses such as that of the 2013 Denver Broncos. The legendary Legion of Boom is, however, now a thing of the past with nearly all of its members retired or on different teams. It is because of this Pete Carroll should be revered for his ability to overcome the loss of some of the biggest names in the game and find away to redefine the identity of his team, overcome a poor start to the season, and ultimately earn a playoff berth.
The Dallas Cowboys had to overcome a similarly poor start to their own season to find their way to a division championship and a home playoff game. Their offense finished ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league in both yards and points per game, but Dallas' defense finished the season ranked an impressive 7th. Dallas' offensive ranking, however, is at least somewhat misleading as their ability to move the football changed drastically following a trade for Amari Cooper. It wasn't necessarily an increase in the Cowboys' average points per game, because that was itself a misleading statistic prior to the arrival of Cooper as the Cowboys produced big time against poor opponents during their few early victories, but they produced little against almost anyone else. Instead one could look to the quality of opponent the Cowboys were finding a way to beat. With better offensive production, their offense sustained drives and kept their defense fresher. The Cowboys held the electric Saints offense to a shocking 10 points, and the Cowboys offense give them enough support to sweep the playoff-bound Eagles, and put up major points in always-tough divisional matchups against the Redskins and Giants.
The Seahawks experienced their own offensive upswing, but they did so seemingly on the sheer will of Russell Wilson who I contend might actually be the most valuable quarterback in the NFL at this point regardless of impressive performances by the likes of Brees, Brady, and Rodgers on any given year. After narrow losses to the powerhouse Chargers and Rams, the Seahawks went on 5-1 run to finish their season in which they averaged an outrageous 34.83 points. The Seahawks even put up a monster 38 points on the Chiefs in a game wherein Wilson out-dueled the sensational Patrick Mahomes.
Now the Seahawks and Cowboys did meet earlier this season, but the Cowboys were still without Amari Cooper and had not yet found their groove. That game was also on the road in Seattle, and few football fans are unaware of exactly what a difficult road environment it typically is. The Seahawks will not have the advantage of a thunderous crowd behind them, and they won't have any remnants of the legion of boom to help shut down a revived Dallas offense. What will the Seahawks have? They will have Russell Wilson, his underrated receivers, and the league's top rushing attack (the Ravens are ranked 2nd). They will have an offense that has found a way to score on even the elite defense of the Vikings while putting up major points on lesser teams such as the 49ers.
The Cowboys will come to this fight with their guns loaded and shouldn't themselves be underestimated. The Cowboys only lost a single game at home this season. Their road record is significantly worse, and that may come into play should they move on to the next round, but tonight is the game is in Arlington. Dak Prescott isn't remotely as talented as Russell Wilson, but he has an impressive running back to help take pressure off of him and just enough receiving weapons to whom he can distribute the ball. Add to that a defense that has stifled some impressive offenses this year and you officially have a more balanced team that the Seattle Seahawks.
On paper one could point to a better defense, home-field advantage, and an offense that can grind down the clock to take away offensive opportunities for the opposing team as reasons to pick the Dallas Cowboys. I'm hesitant commit to that seemingly safe assessment because of just how incredibly experienced and intelligent the Seahawks have been in the playoffs during this decade. As highly ranked as the Cowboys defense finished this season, it never totally shut down even lesser opponents down the stretch. Decisions, decisions. In the end I think I have to go with the better coaching staff, better quarterback, and the offense that finds a way to put up points on essentially anyone.
PREDICTION:
SEAHAWKS 30-24
STAY TUNED FOR TOMORROW'S PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
The Dallas Cowboys had to overcome a similarly poor start to their own season to find their way to a division championship and a home playoff game. Their offense finished ranked a disappointing 22nd in the league in both yards and points per game, but Dallas' defense finished the season ranked an impressive 7th. Dallas' offensive ranking, however, is at least somewhat misleading as their ability to move the football changed drastically following a trade for Amari Cooper. It wasn't necessarily an increase in the Cowboys' average points per game, because that was itself a misleading statistic prior to the arrival of Cooper as the Cowboys produced big time against poor opponents during their few early victories, but they produced little against almost anyone else. Instead one could look to the quality of opponent the Cowboys were finding a way to beat. With better offensive production, their offense sustained drives and kept their defense fresher. The Cowboys held the electric Saints offense to a shocking 10 points, and the Cowboys offense give them enough support to sweep the playoff-bound Eagles, and put up major points in always-tough divisional matchups against the Redskins and Giants.
The Seahawks experienced their own offensive upswing, but they did so seemingly on the sheer will of Russell Wilson who I contend might actually be the most valuable quarterback in the NFL at this point regardless of impressive performances by the likes of Brees, Brady, and Rodgers on any given year. After narrow losses to the powerhouse Chargers and Rams, the Seahawks went on 5-1 run to finish their season in which they averaged an outrageous 34.83 points. The Seahawks even put up a monster 38 points on the Chiefs in a game wherein Wilson out-dueled the sensational Patrick Mahomes.
Now the Seahawks and Cowboys did meet earlier this season, but the Cowboys were still without Amari Cooper and had not yet found their groove. That game was also on the road in Seattle, and few football fans are unaware of exactly what a difficult road environment it typically is. The Seahawks will not have the advantage of a thunderous crowd behind them, and they won't have any remnants of the legion of boom to help shut down a revived Dallas offense. What will the Seahawks have? They will have Russell Wilson, his underrated receivers, and the league's top rushing attack (the Ravens are ranked 2nd). They will have an offense that has found a way to score on even the elite defense of the Vikings while putting up major points on lesser teams such as the 49ers.
The Cowboys will come to this fight with their guns loaded and shouldn't themselves be underestimated. The Cowboys only lost a single game at home this season. Their road record is significantly worse, and that may come into play should they move on to the next round, but tonight is the game is in Arlington. Dak Prescott isn't remotely as talented as Russell Wilson, but he has an impressive running back to help take pressure off of him and just enough receiving weapons to whom he can distribute the ball. Add to that a defense that has stifled some impressive offenses this year and you officially have a more balanced team that the Seattle Seahawks.
On paper one could point to a better defense, home-field advantage, and an offense that can grind down the clock to take away offensive opportunities for the opposing team as reasons to pick the Dallas Cowboys. I'm hesitant commit to that seemingly safe assessment because of just how incredibly experienced and intelligent the Seahawks have been in the playoffs during this decade. As highly ranked as the Cowboys defense finished this season, it never totally shut down even lesser opponents down the stretch. Decisions, decisions. In the end I think I have to go with the better coaching staff, better quarterback, and the offense that finds a way to put up points on essentially anyone.
PREDICTION:
SEAHAWKS 30-24
STAY TUNED FOR TOMORROW'S PREDICTIONS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
NFL PLAYOFFS WILDCARD ROUND: COLTS AT TEXANS
Neither of Saturday's games feature the Ravens, but that actually gives fans in Baltimore a chance to relax and simply enjoy watching football without the inevitable anxiety that I am deadly certain I'm not alone in feeling on any given weekend during the season. Saturday's matchups feature two pairs of teams that all started the season rather poorly. The Cowboys began the season 3-5, the Colts began the season 1-5, the Seahawks were 4-5 after 9 weeks, and the Texans were 0-3 early one before winning their next 9 straight. It is for that reason that football fans should avoid proclamations about teams after a fast start or an early slump. The hottest team through the first 3/4 of the regular season is often not nearly the most dominant team when the post-season rolls around. A good coaching staff will evaluate weaknesses and make adjustments after losses, and teams such as the Seahawks and Patriots almost always begin the season with a losing record through the first month before getting on track.
The other major factor beyond simple coaching adjustments is the health and available personnel of a team late in the season. The Chiefs, for example, appeared nearly unstoppable for much of the season, but they then lost one of their most dominant weapons when video surfaced of star running back Kareem Hunt getting into an altercation with a woman in a hotel. That isn't to say that the Chiefs aren't still a major Super Bowl contender, but their ability to grind down the clock to keep their own inept defense off the field has definitely taken a major hit without Hunt. Meanwhile the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, and not a moment too soon. Their offense suddenly began to function again, and like the Ravens, their offensive success helped their defense to become more well rested and explosive to close out games.
I've heard many people give cliche predictions about who they expect to see in the Super Bowl such as the Saints, Chiefs, Rams, and Patriots, but I it would not shock me to see one or even two teams from today's games make it to the AFC and NFC Championship. After all, some of the strongest teams in the league at this moment had some of the poorest starts to the regular season.
COLTS AT TEXANS
Of the five remaining teams, the Texans have taken the biggest hit as of late when they lost Demaryius Thomas to a tore Achilles in December. After winning 9 straight games, the Texans went 2-2 to finish the season including a 24-21 loss to the Colts in Houston. The Colts, meanwhile, haven't lost in over a month and won 9 of their last 10 games. It would be easy to point to the last matchup between these two teams and crown the Colts the champion, but it was such an incredibly close game that it would be far wiser to examine what has happened since.
Heading into today's game, the Colts have only a single lesser-known player listed as questionable, but even he is slated to play. The Texans have no injuries reported, but they are, of course, without Demaryius Thomas. Thomas' effect on the the Texans offense may not have appeared particularly profound as his stats didn't jump off the page, but his presence at the very least helps to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, however, may struggle for a different reason.
Despite not appearing on the team's official injury report today, DeAndre Hopkins has dealt with an ankle injury all week. The elite receiver will definitely play, but a major part of his effectiveness comes from his ability to stick his foot in the ground and cut. It's safe to wonder just how much his ankle will hinder his ability to perform.
The Colts, meanwhile, have found success with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron leading the way in the receiving corps along with a handful of supporting receivers with between 300 to nearly 500 receiving yards a piece. Andrew Luck has enough weapons with which to spread the ball around, and a decent rushing attack to compliment them with Marlon Mack totally 908 rushing yards on the season and an impressive 4.7 yards per carry. The Colts offensive line has been instrumental in the revival of Luck's career but will have its hands full facing the likes of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Colts and Texans defenses ranked 11th and 12th in the league respectively. From a matchup standpoint, however, the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense while the Colts pass defense fell in the middle of the pack at #16. This will likely prove pivotal as I don't foresee the Texans defense having quite enough to stop a balanced Colts passing attack considering just how dangerous Andrew Luck is when he has time to sit in the pocket and throw.
PREDICTION:
Like both of the regular season games between these two teams, this will come down to a single score, but with DeAndre Hopkins not 100% and the recent loss of DeMaryius Thomas, it's difficult to imagine the Texans having quite enough offensive firepower to come out on top.
COLTS 27-24
STAY TUNED FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SEAHAWKS-COWBOYS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The other major factor beyond simple coaching adjustments is the health and available personnel of a team late in the season. The Chiefs, for example, appeared nearly unstoppable for much of the season, but they then lost one of their most dominant weapons when video surfaced of star running back Kareem Hunt getting into an altercation with a woman in a hotel. That isn't to say that the Chiefs aren't still a major Super Bowl contender, but their ability to grind down the clock to keep their own inept defense off the field has definitely taken a major hit without Hunt. Meanwhile the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper, and not a moment too soon. Their offense suddenly began to function again, and like the Ravens, their offensive success helped their defense to become more well rested and explosive to close out games.
I've heard many people give cliche predictions about who they expect to see in the Super Bowl such as the Saints, Chiefs, Rams, and Patriots, but I it would not shock me to see one or even two teams from today's games make it to the AFC and NFC Championship. After all, some of the strongest teams in the league at this moment had some of the poorest starts to the regular season.
COLTS AT TEXANS
Of the five remaining teams, the Texans have taken the biggest hit as of late when they lost Demaryius Thomas to a tore Achilles in December. After winning 9 straight games, the Texans went 2-2 to finish the season including a 24-21 loss to the Colts in Houston. The Colts, meanwhile, haven't lost in over a month and won 9 of their last 10 games. It would be easy to point to the last matchup between these two teams and crown the Colts the champion, but it was such an incredibly close game that it would be far wiser to examine what has happened since.
Heading into today's game, the Colts have only a single lesser-known player listed as questionable, but even he is slated to play. The Texans have no injuries reported, but they are, of course, without Demaryius Thomas. Thomas' effect on the the Texans offense may not have appeared particularly profound as his stats didn't jump off the page, but his presence at the very least helps to take pressure off of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, however, may struggle for a different reason.
Despite not appearing on the team's official injury report today, DeAndre Hopkins has dealt with an ankle injury all week. The elite receiver will definitely play, but a major part of his effectiveness comes from his ability to stick his foot in the ground and cut. It's safe to wonder just how much his ankle will hinder his ability to perform.
The Colts, meanwhile, have found success with T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron leading the way in the receiving corps along with a handful of supporting receivers with between 300 to nearly 500 receiving yards a piece. Andrew Luck has enough weapons with which to spread the ball around, and a decent rushing attack to compliment them with Marlon Mack totally 908 rushing yards on the season and an impressive 4.7 yards per carry. The Colts offensive line has been instrumental in the revival of Luck's career but will have its hands full facing the likes of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
The Colts and Texans defenses ranked 11th and 12th in the league respectively. From a matchup standpoint, however, the Texans ranked near the bottom of the league in pass defense while the Colts pass defense fell in the middle of the pack at #16. This will likely prove pivotal as I don't foresee the Texans defense having quite enough to stop a balanced Colts passing attack considering just how dangerous Andrew Luck is when he has time to sit in the pocket and throw.
PREDICTION:
Like both of the regular season games between these two teams, this will come down to a single score, but with DeAndre Hopkins not 100% and the recent loss of DeMaryius Thomas, it's difficult to imagine the Texans having quite enough offensive firepower to come out on top.
COLTS 27-24
STAY TUNED FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SEAHAWKS-COWBOYS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, December 27, 2018
RAVENS PLAYOFF PUSH AND WEEK 17 PREDICTIONS
National respect for the the Ravens has not surprisingly crept up over the past 6 weeks. Baltimore's 5-1 record during that span is certainly reason to regard them as one of the hottest teams heading into the post-season. Many have credited the success to the major upswing in rushing production with the changing of the guard from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson. There's no question that the Jackson-led offense has allowed the Ravens to control the clock and keep their own defense and opposing offenses off the field, but one has to examine the health of the team and available personnel over the course of this season to truly understand the Ravens' highs and lows.
Too many people looked at the mid-season slump the Ravens experienced and suggested that it was the result of Joe Flacco being "finished." Closer examination of the available personnel during the Ravens' losses, however, reveals a starkly different narrative. Casual fans ignore the fact that Ravens top corner Marlon Humphrey and 3 of the Ravens 5 starting offensive linemen went down during the mid-season slump. To add to that, Jimmy Smith made his return a week after Humphrey was injured, and it took weeks for him to round into reasonable form. It's no surprise the Ravens sputtered against the Panthers without legitimate pass protection for Joe, and it's no surprise that the Ravens struggled to edge the Saints without Marlon Humphrey to cover Michael Thomas.
I am in no way suggesting that the Ravens should now put the ball back in Joe Flacco's hands--it's clear they have absolutely no intention of returning him to starter status. I am, instead, pointing to something else that will make this Ravens team incredibly dangerous going into the playoffs if they handle business on Sunday against the Browns. The Ravens are healthy. It matters not how strong or hot a team is through the first half or even the first 3 quarters of a season. As Baltimore has shown the world, it only matters that a team makes it to the playoffs and that they're healthy when they do so. I repeat: the Baltimore Ravens are healthy. They are as healthy as a professional football team could conceivably be at this point in the season, and it has allowed them to physically bully not only mediocre and bad teams but also the Chargers last weekend.
The health of a team can change in an instant, and it thus requires tremendous fortune to stay relatively healthy all the way through to the Super Bowl. It is for this reason that I don't like the idea of run-first quarterback as a long-term solution for any professional team. It's easy to become enamored with the electric playmaking ability of a guy who runs a 4.3 forty yard dash as has been seen with the likes of Michael Vick and RG3, but on a long enough timeline, running the football leads to frequent injuries. That isn't to say that a mobile quarterback can't win a Super Bowl, but Lamar Jackson's game will have to quickly evolve to mirror that of Russell Wilson if he wants to both stay healthy and find long-term success in this league.
At least for this season Ravens fans shouldn't worry about Lamar Jackson becoming injured. It's not that he is somehow impervious to bodily harm, but his backup is one of NFL history's greatest playoff quarterbacks. Joe Flacco almost certainly won't play for the Baltimore Ravens next season, but they aren't about to cut him now. If the Ravens find themselves down 10-14 points in the 4th quarter of any game going forward, they may, in fact, turn to old Joe to conserve clock and mount a comeback. In any event, this is a Ravens team that now has both the ability to run the football whilst chewing up clock AND light up opposing secondaries through the air late if need be.
I stepped back from writing for weeks to fully observe what the Ravens have in Jackson and their new look offense. It seemed foolish initially to draw major conclusions from Lamar's first few wins against struggling teams with atrocious defenses. In many cases, timely touchdowns from the defense and special teams helped to put away teams late when Lamar couldn't lead his team into the endzone. That very same scenario occurred against the Chargers last Saturday as well, but it's safe to suggest that the defense is far less exhausted and thus more prone impact plays and turnovers because time-consuming drives from Jackson and company have kept them fresh on the sidelines. Lamar even threw for 200+ yards against a fast, widely feared Chargers defense, and that gives me reason to believe that he's getting better every single week he starts.
The Baltimore Ravens may not be the best team in the NFL at this moment, but it's difficult for me to think of any team in the AFC that is significantly more well-equipped for a post-season run than a team that can run the football on virtually anyone and play defense better than literally any team in the league. Now all that's left to do is beat the Browns. How hard could that be, right? Oh. Right. They're kind of awesome now too. Welp, time to break out the defibrillator lest the people watching next to me realize I've gone down with a major cardiac event because Baker Mayfield ruined the end of my year.
WEEK 17 PICKS
DISCLAIMER: A sizable number of this week's games feature no playoff teams or possible playoff teams and are, therefore, without legitimate motivation for either team to win. It would, in fact, behoove any team that can't go to the playoffs to lose as it moves their draft placement up. It is for this reason that I will separate relevant from irrelevant games for this week.
IRRELEVANT GAMES
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Miami Dolphins were quite an enigma this season. They began the season 3-0 and then proceeded to beat both the Bears and Patriots at later points, but they fell two wins short of legitimate playoff contention going into the final week of the season. The Bills' season went even worse at 5-10, and they already lost to the Dolphins in Miami a month ago. The Dolphins' 1-6 road record, however, is both the biggest reason they will miss the playoffs and the biggest reason to believe they'll fall to the Bills in Week 17. BILLS 23-17
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Matt Patricia experiment didn't quite go as planned as the Lions have gone 5-10 thus far, but far more shocking was the fact that the Packers went 6-8-1. Aaron Rodgers' once-in-generation talent wasn't enough to will his team to a playoff berth in 2018. This only reinforces a view I've expressed to many that making even the most elite quarterback the highest paid player in the league is a recipe for disaster as the NFL salary cap is so low that doing so means not being able to pay for talent at many other vitally important positions. The Ravens did it, Falcons did it, and now the Packers did it, and not a single one of those franchises have seen the same level of success since the respective record-setting contracts were signed.
As with every game where the outcome has no bearing on the post-season, the motivation to win is questionable as it hurts draft position, but for a franchise with a new head coach, such as the Lions, an opportunity to show growth and progress by ending the season with a win is a tremendous incentive. Dome teams don't typically fare particularly well in harsh outdoor environments such as Lambeau Field in late December. The Lions have also fallen off the map from an offensive standpoint as the last time they scored 20 or more points was 6 weeks ago. The last time these two teams faced one another, the Lions won 31-23 as Detroit capitalized early on mistakes made by Green Bay. Rodgers still threw for nearly 450 yards and 3 touchdowns, and it is for that reason that I believe he won't struggle the second time around to shred Detroit's secondary and give his home crowd a reason for optimism leading into next season. This will still be a hard fought game.
PACKERS 28-21
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons have, as I mentioned before, proven that throwing a mega contract at a quarterback doesn't magically improve your team--in fact it tends to ruin a team's chances at success. It is for that reason that teams need to reconsider the popular adage that "this is a pass-driven league, so you need a franchise quarterback to be successful." It isn't a horrible thing to have someone you'd consider to be your franchise quarterback, but you'll likely not experience championship-winning success with him if you've broken the bank to keep him around. The Ravens, Seahawks, and Eagles showed in the last 6 years that having a talented quarterback on an inexpensive rookie contract allows a team to have enough cap space to surround the young signal caller with enough talent to win a Super Bowl. Even the veteran quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls in the last 6 years, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, were on relatively cap-friendly deals at the later stages in their careers to allow their respective teams to retain such players as Darrelle Revis and Von Miller.
The Buccaneers have had the misfortune of facing three likely playoff-bound teams over the past 3 weeks, while the Falcons have put together back to back wins as of late over two relatively inept teams. The fact that this game is in Tampa may be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Bucs, but something tells me the Falcons are set to ride their recent momentum into a season-ending road win in a warm road environment.
FALCONS 33-27
RELEVANT GAMES
JETS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have clinched their own division, but they can't afford to rest their starters as they still have a chance to lose their #2 seed status if they lose and the Texans win. The Jets have lost some painfully close games to competitive teams, but they don't match up well with the Patriots--and this game will be in Foxboro.
PATRIOTS 31-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- Without Cam Newton the Panthers can't find a way to win. SAINTS 24-13
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants have been as bad at home as the Cowboys have been on the road this season, but a win or loss this week will not change the Cowboys' playoff seeding. Jason Garrett says that healthy players will play, but I have a feeling that the Cowboys won't force the issue if they find themselves down. Tough to imagine Cowboys players being anxious to play their hearts out in a totally meaningless game. Let the Giants have their fun this week.
GIANTS 23-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Texans dominated the Jaguars 20-7 earlier this season in Jacksonville, so it's difficult to imagine a tremendously different outcome in Houston. The Jags have fallen the hardest of any team considered elite last season, and it's not entirely clear why that happened. The Texans overcame an incredibly rough 0-3 start to the season to find themselves winners of 9 of their last 11 games, but their two losses during that stretch have come within the last 3 weeks. The rcent loss of Demaryius Thomas doesn't render the Texans totally useless, but it certainly takes them down a notch as a Super Bowl contender. The Texans will smack around the Jaguars again because they have to win to ensure they lock up their own division, but I don't see them advancing to the AFC Championship this post-season.
TEXANS 27-17
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Chiefs. The Chargers, in fact, BEAT the Chiefs two weeks ago, but still lose out through tie breakers to Kansas City. It's highly unlikely that the Chiefs will drop a game to the Raiders at home this week, but maybe the chance that they could is enough to give the Chargers motivation to take care of business against the Broncos in order to possibly leapfrog the Chiefs for the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
On the other hand, if the Chargers are TRULY smart, they'll scrap the idea of desperately playing for something they likely won't get and will sit their starters because doing so will serve as a functional bye week. They also have been so good on the road this season that home-field advantage is less of a factor as it would be for many other teams. I fully expect, however, that the Chargers will play to win this game, while the Broncos are better off losing. It must be noted that the Broncos narrowly upset the Chargers in L.A. earlier this season.
CHARGERS 23-20
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs only beat the Raiders by a touchdown in L.A. a month ago, but something tells me it won't be quite as close in Kansas City this time around. The Chiefs can't lose this game or they risk not only losing the #1 seed but also falling to wildcard team status. The loss of Kareem Hunt and lackluster defense doesn't give me confidence that the Chiefs will make a deep run in the post-season, but they'll handle business this week with a solid win over a team they already beat on the road.
CHIEFS 34-21
49ERS AT RAMS- The 49ers have won 2 of their last 3 to build a surprising amount of late-season momentum despite no shot at the playoffs. They beat the Broncos and surging Seahawks despite losing Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season. Despite their recent success, the 49ers do not match up well with the Rams who beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season 39-10.
RAMS 30-16
BEARS AT VIKINGS- This is one of the few games this week that feature two teams vying for playoff position. The Bears have already clinched their division, but they have the opportunity to knock out a division rival if the Eagles also manage to win this week. The Vikings are 8-6-1 at the moment, but they risk going 8-7-1 and missing the playoffs entirely. The Bears also have an outside chance at leapfrogging the Rams in playoff seeding, so they'll have more than one motivation to win this game. The last game in Chicago between these two teams was a fairly close 25-20 win for the Bears, and Chicago hasn't produced much offensively as of late The Bears suffered 3 out of their 4 losses on the road, while the Vikings are 5-2 at home. Homefield advantage and a greater need to win should be enough to propel the Vikings to a narrow victory this week, but they're not good enough to make much of a run in the playoffs as a wildcard team.
VIKINGS 24-21
BENGALS AT STEELERS- Ravens fans know all too well how much the Bengals relish the opportunity to play spoiler to a division rival. With Andy Dalton in injured reserve, Vontaze Burfict doubtful to play, Tyler Boyd out, and A.J. Green not healthy, it's difficult to imagine that THIS Bengals team has remotely enough clout to get the job at the end of this season. The irony is that the Steelers can play their hearts out and absolutely dismantle the Bengals--and a Ravens win over the Browns will mean it will have been all for naught.
STEELERS 38-17
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- This isn't an entirely meaningless game for the Seahawks as a loss coupled with a Vikings win would drop them from the 5th to the 6th seed in the NFC playoff bracket, but whether they win or lose, the Seahawks will be a wildcard playoff team. In light of that, it would greatly behoove them to sit their starters at least for the second half of this game. A functional bye week is dramatically more important than having the 5th as opposed to the 6th seed. Pete Carroll, however, disagrees. He believes that momentum is more important than having starters rested, so he insists he's going to play his starters.
SEAHAWKS 24-10
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were blown out by the Eagles a month ago and there's little reason they'd be able to beat a team desperately holding on for a chance to make the playoffs. Washington has some good pieces for next season, but there's simply not enough there to play spoiler this week.
EAGLES 28-17
BROWNS AT RAVENS- The Browns are 2-5 on the road this season, but both of their road wins have come during the last 6 weeks during which they've won 5 of their games. The problem is that literally all of the teams the Browns beat during that time are totally inept because of major injury issues. Two out of those 5 wins came against the Bengals who are missing most of their big name starters, one win came by a single point over a horrible Broncos team, one win came over the Panthers who haven't won in months, and another came against a Falcons team that has proved incredibly disappointing this season. When going up against a playoff team, the Texans, the Browns were soundly trounced 29-13. The Ravens may still struggle to produce offensively considering the propensity for Lamar Jackson's offense to score only a single touchdown per game, but the Ravens defense held the Browns to 12 points in Cleveland the first time these two teams met this season. Now the Ravens are limiting opposing teams possible possessions by chewing up game clock, and at the very least, they should be good for 16-20 points. This will be a slugfest of epic proportions, but the Ravens have stifled much better quarterbacks than Baker Mayfield this season; they're likely not going to let a rookie get the best of them in Baltimore. Oh, and if the Ravens find themselves down late with little time left...there is a guy they can turn to who knows how to run a two minute drill.
RAVENS 20-13
COLTS AT TITANS- This may be the most hotly contested game of the week as the winner will make the playoffs and the loser will not. Both teams sit at 9-6, but the Colts easily defeated the Titans when these two teams last met earlier this season. The Titans have won their last 4 games, but all of those wins came against non-playoff teams. The last two games the Titans played against playoff teams happened to be against Colts and Texans, and both Indy and Houston absolutely brutalized the Titans. The Colts have been red-hot as of late and were even able to beat the Texans in Houston several weeks ago. It's tough to imagine a Colts team that so easily dismantled the Titans a month ago suddenly falling to them just because they're playing on the road. It's fitting that this final showdown will be the Sunday night game, and hopefully it proves closer and more exciting than I anticipate.
COLTS 31-23
This week could prove a defining moment in the career of John Harbaugh. For the first phase his career, many people remarked that his team truly belonged to Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. It was suggested that Harbaugh simply walked into a fortunate situation, but he didn't offer any sort of offensive or defensive system of his own to put his stamp on the franchise. It's true that John isn't a guru of anything other than special teams, but he has done a great job of motivating his players and maintaining a sense of brotherhood and unity that many veteran players have stated they never felt in other organizations. All the Ravens have to do is win this week to lock up the division and secure a home playoff game the following weekend.
If, however, the Ravens fall in heartbreaking fashion to a Browns team with nothing left to play for other than pride and to play spoiler to a potential playoff team, John's legacy as a head coach will take a major hit. This is where we see what his organization is able to do when everything is on the line. Battling back into contention only to fall short in the end again simply won't do. They NEED to win right now.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Too many people looked at the mid-season slump the Ravens experienced and suggested that it was the result of Joe Flacco being "finished." Closer examination of the available personnel during the Ravens' losses, however, reveals a starkly different narrative. Casual fans ignore the fact that Ravens top corner Marlon Humphrey and 3 of the Ravens 5 starting offensive linemen went down during the mid-season slump. To add to that, Jimmy Smith made his return a week after Humphrey was injured, and it took weeks for him to round into reasonable form. It's no surprise the Ravens sputtered against the Panthers without legitimate pass protection for Joe, and it's no surprise that the Ravens struggled to edge the Saints without Marlon Humphrey to cover Michael Thomas.
I am in no way suggesting that the Ravens should now put the ball back in Joe Flacco's hands--it's clear they have absolutely no intention of returning him to starter status. I am, instead, pointing to something else that will make this Ravens team incredibly dangerous going into the playoffs if they handle business on Sunday against the Browns. The Ravens are healthy. It matters not how strong or hot a team is through the first half or even the first 3 quarters of a season. As Baltimore has shown the world, it only matters that a team makes it to the playoffs and that they're healthy when they do so. I repeat: the Baltimore Ravens are healthy. They are as healthy as a professional football team could conceivably be at this point in the season, and it has allowed them to physically bully not only mediocre and bad teams but also the Chargers last weekend.
The health of a team can change in an instant, and it thus requires tremendous fortune to stay relatively healthy all the way through to the Super Bowl. It is for this reason that I don't like the idea of run-first quarterback as a long-term solution for any professional team. It's easy to become enamored with the electric playmaking ability of a guy who runs a 4.3 forty yard dash as has been seen with the likes of Michael Vick and RG3, but on a long enough timeline, running the football leads to frequent injuries. That isn't to say that a mobile quarterback can't win a Super Bowl, but Lamar Jackson's game will have to quickly evolve to mirror that of Russell Wilson if he wants to both stay healthy and find long-term success in this league.
At least for this season Ravens fans shouldn't worry about Lamar Jackson becoming injured. It's not that he is somehow impervious to bodily harm, but his backup is one of NFL history's greatest playoff quarterbacks. Joe Flacco almost certainly won't play for the Baltimore Ravens next season, but they aren't about to cut him now. If the Ravens find themselves down 10-14 points in the 4th quarter of any game going forward, they may, in fact, turn to old Joe to conserve clock and mount a comeback. In any event, this is a Ravens team that now has both the ability to run the football whilst chewing up clock AND light up opposing secondaries through the air late if need be.
I stepped back from writing for weeks to fully observe what the Ravens have in Jackson and their new look offense. It seemed foolish initially to draw major conclusions from Lamar's first few wins against struggling teams with atrocious defenses. In many cases, timely touchdowns from the defense and special teams helped to put away teams late when Lamar couldn't lead his team into the endzone. That very same scenario occurred against the Chargers last Saturday as well, but it's safe to suggest that the defense is far less exhausted and thus more prone impact plays and turnovers because time-consuming drives from Jackson and company have kept them fresh on the sidelines. Lamar even threw for 200+ yards against a fast, widely feared Chargers defense, and that gives me reason to believe that he's getting better every single week he starts.
The Baltimore Ravens may not be the best team in the NFL at this moment, but it's difficult for me to think of any team in the AFC that is significantly more well-equipped for a post-season run than a team that can run the football on virtually anyone and play defense better than literally any team in the league. Now all that's left to do is beat the Browns. How hard could that be, right? Oh. Right. They're kind of awesome now too. Welp, time to break out the defibrillator lest the people watching next to me realize I've gone down with a major cardiac event because Baker Mayfield ruined the end of my year.
WEEK 17 PICKS
DISCLAIMER: A sizable number of this week's games feature no playoff teams or possible playoff teams and are, therefore, without legitimate motivation for either team to win. It would, in fact, behoove any team that can't go to the playoffs to lose as it moves their draft placement up. It is for this reason that I will separate relevant from irrelevant games for this week.
IRRELEVANT GAMES
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Miami Dolphins were quite an enigma this season. They began the season 3-0 and then proceeded to beat both the Bears and Patriots at later points, but they fell two wins short of legitimate playoff contention going into the final week of the season. The Bills' season went even worse at 5-10, and they already lost to the Dolphins in Miami a month ago. The Dolphins' 1-6 road record, however, is both the biggest reason they will miss the playoffs and the biggest reason to believe they'll fall to the Bills in Week 17. BILLS 23-17
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Matt Patricia experiment didn't quite go as planned as the Lions have gone 5-10 thus far, but far more shocking was the fact that the Packers went 6-8-1. Aaron Rodgers' once-in-generation talent wasn't enough to will his team to a playoff berth in 2018. This only reinforces a view I've expressed to many that making even the most elite quarterback the highest paid player in the league is a recipe for disaster as the NFL salary cap is so low that doing so means not being able to pay for talent at many other vitally important positions. The Ravens did it, Falcons did it, and now the Packers did it, and not a single one of those franchises have seen the same level of success since the respective record-setting contracts were signed.
As with every game where the outcome has no bearing on the post-season, the motivation to win is questionable as it hurts draft position, but for a franchise with a new head coach, such as the Lions, an opportunity to show growth and progress by ending the season with a win is a tremendous incentive. Dome teams don't typically fare particularly well in harsh outdoor environments such as Lambeau Field in late December. The Lions have also fallen off the map from an offensive standpoint as the last time they scored 20 or more points was 6 weeks ago. The last time these two teams faced one another, the Lions won 31-23 as Detroit capitalized early on mistakes made by Green Bay. Rodgers still threw for nearly 450 yards and 3 touchdowns, and it is for that reason that I believe he won't struggle the second time around to shred Detroit's secondary and give his home crowd a reason for optimism leading into next season. This will still be a hard fought game.
PACKERS 28-21
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons have, as I mentioned before, proven that throwing a mega contract at a quarterback doesn't magically improve your team--in fact it tends to ruin a team's chances at success. It is for that reason that teams need to reconsider the popular adage that "this is a pass-driven league, so you need a franchise quarterback to be successful." It isn't a horrible thing to have someone you'd consider to be your franchise quarterback, but you'll likely not experience championship-winning success with him if you've broken the bank to keep him around. The Ravens, Seahawks, and Eagles showed in the last 6 years that having a talented quarterback on an inexpensive rookie contract allows a team to have enough cap space to surround the young signal caller with enough talent to win a Super Bowl. Even the veteran quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls in the last 6 years, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, were on relatively cap-friendly deals at the later stages in their careers to allow their respective teams to retain such players as Darrelle Revis and Von Miller.
The Buccaneers have had the misfortune of facing three likely playoff-bound teams over the past 3 weeks, while the Falcons have put together back to back wins as of late over two relatively inept teams. The fact that this game is in Tampa may be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Bucs, but something tells me the Falcons are set to ride their recent momentum into a season-ending road win in a warm road environment.
FALCONS 33-27
RELEVANT GAMES
JETS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have clinched their own division, but they can't afford to rest their starters as they still have a chance to lose their #2 seed status if they lose and the Texans win. The Jets have lost some painfully close games to competitive teams, but they don't match up well with the Patriots--and this game will be in Foxboro.
PATRIOTS 31-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- Without Cam Newton the Panthers can't find a way to win. SAINTS 24-13
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants have been as bad at home as the Cowboys have been on the road this season, but a win or loss this week will not change the Cowboys' playoff seeding. Jason Garrett says that healthy players will play, but I have a feeling that the Cowboys won't force the issue if they find themselves down. Tough to imagine Cowboys players being anxious to play their hearts out in a totally meaningless game. Let the Giants have their fun this week.
GIANTS 23-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Texans dominated the Jaguars 20-7 earlier this season in Jacksonville, so it's difficult to imagine a tremendously different outcome in Houston. The Jags have fallen the hardest of any team considered elite last season, and it's not entirely clear why that happened. The Texans overcame an incredibly rough 0-3 start to the season to find themselves winners of 9 of their last 11 games, but their two losses during that stretch have come within the last 3 weeks. The rcent loss of Demaryius Thomas doesn't render the Texans totally useless, but it certainly takes them down a notch as a Super Bowl contender. The Texans will smack around the Jaguars again because they have to win to ensure they lock up their own division, but I don't see them advancing to the AFC Championship this post-season.
TEXANS 27-17
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Chiefs. The Chargers, in fact, BEAT the Chiefs two weeks ago, but still lose out through tie breakers to Kansas City. It's highly unlikely that the Chiefs will drop a game to the Raiders at home this week, but maybe the chance that they could is enough to give the Chargers motivation to take care of business against the Broncos in order to possibly leapfrog the Chiefs for the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
On the other hand, if the Chargers are TRULY smart, they'll scrap the idea of desperately playing for something they likely won't get and will sit their starters because doing so will serve as a functional bye week. They also have been so good on the road this season that home-field advantage is less of a factor as it would be for many other teams. I fully expect, however, that the Chargers will play to win this game, while the Broncos are better off losing. It must be noted that the Broncos narrowly upset the Chargers in L.A. earlier this season.
CHARGERS 23-20
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs only beat the Raiders by a touchdown in L.A. a month ago, but something tells me it won't be quite as close in Kansas City this time around. The Chiefs can't lose this game or they risk not only losing the #1 seed but also falling to wildcard team status. The loss of Kareem Hunt and lackluster defense doesn't give me confidence that the Chiefs will make a deep run in the post-season, but they'll handle business this week with a solid win over a team they already beat on the road.
CHIEFS 34-21
49ERS AT RAMS- The 49ers have won 2 of their last 3 to build a surprising amount of late-season momentum despite no shot at the playoffs. They beat the Broncos and surging Seahawks despite losing Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season. Despite their recent success, the 49ers do not match up well with the Rams who beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season 39-10.
RAMS 30-16
BEARS AT VIKINGS- This is one of the few games this week that feature two teams vying for playoff position. The Bears have already clinched their division, but they have the opportunity to knock out a division rival if the Eagles also manage to win this week. The Vikings are 8-6-1 at the moment, but they risk going 8-7-1 and missing the playoffs entirely. The Bears also have an outside chance at leapfrogging the Rams in playoff seeding, so they'll have more than one motivation to win this game. The last game in Chicago between these two teams was a fairly close 25-20 win for the Bears, and Chicago hasn't produced much offensively as of late The Bears suffered 3 out of their 4 losses on the road, while the Vikings are 5-2 at home. Homefield advantage and a greater need to win should be enough to propel the Vikings to a narrow victory this week, but they're not good enough to make much of a run in the playoffs as a wildcard team.
VIKINGS 24-21
BENGALS AT STEELERS- Ravens fans know all too well how much the Bengals relish the opportunity to play spoiler to a division rival. With Andy Dalton in injured reserve, Vontaze Burfict doubtful to play, Tyler Boyd out, and A.J. Green not healthy, it's difficult to imagine that THIS Bengals team has remotely enough clout to get the job at the end of this season. The irony is that the Steelers can play their hearts out and absolutely dismantle the Bengals--and a Ravens win over the Browns will mean it will have been all for naught.
STEELERS 38-17
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- This isn't an entirely meaningless game for the Seahawks as a loss coupled with a Vikings win would drop them from the 5th to the 6th seed in the NFC playoff bracket, but whether they win or lose, the Seahawks will be a wildcard playoff team. In light of that, it would greatly behoove them to sit their starters at least for the second half of this game. A functional bye week is dramatically more important than having the 5th as opposed to the 6th seed. Pete Carroll, however, disagrees. He believes that momentum is more important than having starters rested, so he insists he's going to play his starters.
SEAHAWKS 24-10
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were blown out by the Eagles a month ago and there's little reason they'd be able to beat a team desperately holding on for a chance to make the playoffs. Washington has some good pieces for next season, but there's simply not enough there to play spoiler this week.
EAGLES 28-17
BROWNS AT RAVENS- The Browns are 2-5 on the road this season, but both of their road wins have come during the last 6 weeks during which they've won 5 of their games. The problem is that literally all of the teams the Browns beat during that time are totally inept because of major injury issues. Two out of those 5 wins came against the Bengals who are missing most of their big name starters, one win came by a single point over a horrible Broncos team, one win came over the Panthers who haven't won in months, and another came against a Falcons team that has proved incredibly disappointing this season. When going up against a playoff team, the Texans, the Browns were soundly trounced 29-13. The Ravens may still struggle to produce offensively considering the propensity for Lamar Jackson's offense to score only a single touchdown per game, but the Ravens defense held the Browns to 12 points in Cleveland the first time these two teams met this season. Now the Ravens are limiting opposing teams possible possessions by chewing up game clock, and at the very least, they should be good for 16-20 points. This will be a slugfest of epic proportions, but the Ravens have stifled much better quarterbacks than Baker Mayfield this season; they're likely not going to let a rookie get the best of them in Baltimore. Oh, and if the Ravens find themselves down late with little time left...there is a guy they can turn to who knows how to run a two minute drill.
RAVENS 20-13
COLTS AT TITANS- This may be the most hotly contested game of the week as the winner will make the playoffs and the loser will not. Both teams sit at 9-6, but the Colts easily defeated the Titans when these two teams last met earlier this season. The Titans have won their last 4 games, but all of those wins came against non-playoff teams. The last two games the Titans played against playoff teams happened to be against Colts and Texans, and both Indy and Houston absolutely brutalized the Titans. The Colts have been red-hot as of late and were even able to beat the Texans in Houston several weeks ago. It's tough to imagine a Colts team that so easily dismantled the Titans a month ago suddenly falling to them just because they're playing on the road. It's fitting that this final showdown will be the Sunday night game, and hopefully it proves closer and more exciting than I anticipate.
COLTS 31-23
This week could prove a defining moment in the career of John Harbaugh. For the first phase his career, many people remarked that his team truly belonged to Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. It was suggested that Harbaugh simply walked into a fortunate situation, but he didn't offer any sort of offensive or defensive system of his own to put his stamp on the franchise. It's true that John isn't a guru of anything other than special teams, but he has done a great job of motivating his players and maintaining a sense of brotherhood and unity that many veteran players have stated they never felt in other organizations. All the Ravens have to do is win this week to lock up the division and secure a home playoff game the following weekend.
If, however, the Ravens fall in heartbreaking fashion to a Browns team with nothing left to play for other than pride and to play spoiler to a potential playoff team, John's legacy as a head coach will take a major hit. This is where we see what his organization is able to do when everything is on the line. Battling back into contention only to fall short in the end again simply won't do. They NEED to win right now.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, November 4, 2018
STEELERS-RAVENS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS
If one were to pick a common theme for the Ravens for each season since Baltimore last won a Super Bowl, it would probably be that they're a team always one or two injured players away from being great. Nearly every year the Ravens find themselves with one less quality corner or one less quality offensive lineman than would be required to win consistently in a league where wins and losses often come only by a single score and could have gone the other way were it not for one pivotal, controversial play. Part of this may stem from the Ravens missing on so many 2nd and 3rd round drafts picks in recent years, and part may also stem from the cap money tied up in the contracts of aging veterans who make far more than they're worth in the waning years of their careers.
Possibly the biggest reason, however, that the Ravens struggle so mightily to be anything beyond slightly above league average is the lack of a truly effective offensive system to elevate players. The Patriots, for example, were without Rob Gronkowski the last time they won a Super Bowl, but that did not stop them from mounting the most impressive comeback in Super Bowl history. It's not because Brady is more athletic or has a better arm than Joe Flacco, but he has been placed in a far more advanced system that he executes with surgical precision--a system where less-than-elite athletes such as Chris Hogan can find tremendous success. John Harbaugh brought with him no such system or philosophy. He, instead, brought with him his experience as a defensive backs and special teams coach. The Ravens typically have outstanding special teams play, and as important as that is, it's only one comparatively minor piece to the puzzle.
It's unfair to compare Harbaugh to Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, but one can't help but wonder what things would be like if the Ravens were led by a man with a better set of schematic philosophies. Harbaugh insisted upon bringing back Marty Mornhinweg this season despite the fact that Steve Bisciotti's initial instinct was to replace the pass-happy offensive coordinator. Bisciotti's warning to Harbaugh was reportedly that if Marty didn't get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2018, both Mornhinweg and Harbaugh would be fired together. I can certainly understand Harbaugh wanting continuity, especially since Joe Flacco also reportedly expressed his support of Mornhinweg, but the play-calling last week was incredibly tough to watch. It's understandable that an offensive line decimated by injuries would limit the Ravens' ability to move the football and put points on the board, but it's still difficult to see the rationale behind Mornhinweg's decisions and apparent thought process. He calls running plays where the Ravens almost never overload at the point of attack, and he still hasn't grasped the notion that this Ravens team must throw to open up the field for the run--it simply can't operate the other way around as it did in years past. Watching Alex Collins get buried in the backfield less than a second after taking the handoff was as depressing as it was infuriating.
Alex Collins hasn't suddenly become a bad running back. Both he and Buck Allen are effective when given the opportunity and running room. It's true that the Ravens don't have a bell cow elite running back the way they did with Ray Rice or Jamaal Lewis, but Collins shocked the NFL last season when he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season. Collins has even had success against the Pittsburgh during his time as a Raven, but it's difficult to imagine he'll find such success tomorrow when the Steelers come to town. Both the Ravens' starting offensive tackles will be out as neither has practiced all week. If I had to take a guess, Orlando Brown Jr. will start on the right side where he's nearly starting caliber already, and Alex Lewis will slide out to left tackle while another backup will take his place at left guard. I might be inclined to say that this setup could possibly work except that the Ravens center, despite being healthy, is probably the weakest link in the chain. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Matt Skura is too great of physical a drop-off from Ryan Jensen, and not adequately replacing last year's mauling starter will likely prove to be the biggest blunder by the Ravens player personnel department.
If the Ravens offense can't be particularly effective tomorrow, the burden will fall on a Ravens defense that looked atrocious for the past two weeks without Marlon Humphrey. Fortunately for Baltimore, it appears as though Marlon Humphrey will play tomorrow, and that will go a long way to limiting Antonio Brown. The Ravens will also miss Tim Williams, but they're so loaded with pass rushers including Matt Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Terrell Suggs that it's safe to assume Ben will feel some pressure off the edge tomorrow. Baltimore already showed it could handle the Steelers' weapons in Pittsburgh, and now they have another opportunity to do so in Baltimore. The problem is that the Ravens defense will wear down if the offense can't mount successful drives to keep the D off the field. It's also safe to say that the Steelers have gotten better since the last time these two teams faced one another.
I'd like to think that the return of the Ravens top corner along with homefield advantage and would be enough to tip things in favor of Baltimore, and I'd even like to think the Ravens will be ok without James Hurst at right tackle because Orlando Brown Jr. is such a talent. The absence of Ronnie Stanley, however, is more than the Ravens offensive line can withstand, especially because it will mean such a low level of talent at left guard as well. If Joe Flacco doesn't have time to throw and if the Ravens are even LESS effective opening up running lanes, it's difficult to see how they'll be able to see significant offensive success against a hard-nosed familiar foe.
In a league where a ton of teams have only 3 or 4 wins at this point, it's tough to count the Ravens out, but given the difficult schedule ahead of them, Sunday's game against Pittsburgh feels like a must-win contest. If you beat a team on the road, it seems only logical that you should be able to beat them at home. It is for this reason that I pray the Ravens rise to the occasion and handle their business before heading into the bye week to get healthy as the second half of the season looms. Missing key personnel doesn't always mean the Ravens will lose to the Steelers. Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in 2015 despite losing Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett. Tomorrow's game will undoubtedly be similarly hard-fought, but something just scares me about how poorly the Ravens played against a Panthers team that is not nearly as good as they appeared last Sunday. The struggled to cover tight ends, and the Steelers have multiple athletic tight ends who can shred a defense if allowed to run free.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore bounces back, but too many factors about this game make me uneasy. Without an offense that can sustain drives late in the game to burn up clock and keep the Steelers off the field, it's tough to see the Ravens stifling the Steelers' ability to mount a furious second half comeback. Hell, the Steelers may not even NEED to come back at all. One way or another, I can't in good conscience pick the Ravens to win this game, but let's hope they prove me wrong.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BEARS AT BILLS- The Bears have only truly lost tough close games against quality teams thus far. The Bills are NOT a quality team. BEARS 31-17
CHIEFS AT BROWNS- Tough to see the Browns turning things around coming off the firing of their head coach and given the current state and track record of their team--also the this opponent. The Chiefs are scary. CHIEFS 42-20
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It's been a tough recent stretch for the Fins, but they already beat the Jets in New Jersey. It's tough to imagine them losing to an uneven Jets team in Miami. DOLPHINS 23-14
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Without Stefon Diggs, it's difficult to imagine the Lions falling to the Vikings even with the limited return of Dalvin Cook. Adam Thielen is certainly having an insane season with nearly 1000 receiving yards through only the first 9 games, but without Diggs on the field, the Lions will be able to keep Thielen doubled most of the day. LIONS 24-21
FALCONS AT REDSKINS- It's amazing just how far the Falcons have fallen less than two years since their appearance in a Super Bowl. Matt Ryan and company have lost both of their road games thus far this season, and the Redskins are 3-1 at home. This will be a good day for Washingtonians. REDSKINS 34-27
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Buccaneers are an absolutely tire fire and the Panthers are gaining momentum, especially at home. PANTHERS 30-16
STEELERS AT RAVENS- John Harbaugh being on the hot seat won't mean much in a game where the Ravens are extremely short-handed on the offensive line--particularly on Flacco's blindside. If Flacco isn't comfortable in the pocket, he isn't accurate and this team doesn't run the ball well enough to take pressure off of him as it did in years past. The Ravens defense will fight mightily, but they can only stay on the field for so long. I'd like to think this will be hard-fought, but something tells me the Steelers will pull away late. I REEEEALLY hope I'm way off on this one. STEELERS 27-17
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos teed off on the worst team in the NFL two weeks ago, but they've done nothing but lose otherwise for the past couple of months. The Texans, meanwhile, have been hitting their stride since they tailored their offense to their quarterback's skill set, and now they've added Demaryius Thomas just in time to take on his old team. TEXANS 35-20
CHARGERS AT SEAHAWKS- It's tough to know what to think about the Chargers. They're 5-2, but they've won a lot of close games over some rather questionable teams with the exception of their blowout of the Browns. The Seahawks are a shell of their former self, but they've won 4 of their last 5 games in pretty convincing fashion, and the only game they lost during that stretch was a 2 point loss to the unbeaten Rams. This could truly go either way, but it's still a bad idea to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially with their current level of momentum. SEAHAWKS 23-20
RAMS AT SAINTS- This is probably the best game of the week as it pits two of the league's top teams against one another in one of the toughest road venues. The Rams keep winning, but they do so by the skin of their teeth and often to teams with iffy records. Drew Brees has more to work with than Aaron Rodgers right now, and I have a feeling his game won't be fumbled away. SAINTS 36-33
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS- If the Rams and Saints game is the best game of the week, the Packers and Patriots might be the most heavily anticipated quarterback duel of the week. Aaron Rodgers has led his team to only 3 wins, but everyone can see they're much better than their record would suggest at this point. With that said, the Patriots are an electric 6-2 with big time recent wins over the powerhouse Chiefs and a strong Bears team. Rodgers typically has some magic in him, but he's going where almost no teams come out victorious (except sometimes the Ravens). PATRIOTS 38-27
TITANS AT COWBOYS- Neither of these teams is a legitimate contender, but the Titans are atrocious on the road. COWBOYS 24-13
I'M NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ON THE RAVENS' CHANCES TODAY, BUT THIS IS A FAMILIAR FOE THAT THEY'VE ALREADY BEATEN ON THE ROAD, AND MARLON HUMPHREY IS, IN FACT, ACTIVE. LET'S HOPE JOE AND COMPANY BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY TODAY!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Possibly the biggest reason, however, that the Ravens struggle so mightily to be anything beyond slightly above league average is the lack of a truly effective offensive system to elevate players. The Patriots, for example, were without Rob Gronkowski the last time they won a Super Bowl, but that did not stop them from mounting the most impressive comeback in Super Bowl history. It's not because Brady is more athletic or has a better arm than Joe Flacco, but he has been placed in a far more advanced system that he executes with surgical precision--a system where less-than-elite athletes such as Chris Hogan can find tremendous success. John Harbaugh brought with him no such system or philosophy. He, instead, brought with him his experience as a defensive backs and special teams coach. The Ravens typically have outstanding special teams play, and as important as that is, it's only one comparatively minor piece to the puzzle.
It's unfair to compare Harbaugh to Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, but one can't help but wonder what things would be like if the Ravens were led by a man with a better set of schematic philosophies. Harbaugh insisted upon bringing back Marty Mornhinweg this season despite the fact that Steve Bisciotti's initial instinct was to replace the pass-happy offensive coordinator. Bisciotti's warning to Harbaugh was reportedly that if Marty didn't get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2018, both Mornhinweg and Harbaugh would be fired together. I can certainly understand Harbaugh wanting continuity, especially since Joe Flacco also reportedly expressed his support of Mornhinweg, but the play-calling last week was incredibly tough to watch. It's understandable that an offensive line decimated by injuries would limit the Ravens' ability to move the football and put points on the board, but it's still difficult to see the rationale behind Mornhinweg's decisions and apparent thought process. He calls running plays where the Ravens almost never overload at the point of attack, and he still hasn't grasped the notion that this Ravens team must throw to open up the field for the run--it simply can't operate the other way around as it did in years past. Watching Alex Collins get buried in the backfield less than a second after taking the handoff was as depressing as it was infuriating.
Alex Collins hasn't suddenly become a bad running back. Both he and Buck Allen are effective when given the opportunity and running room. It's true that the Ravens don't have a bell cow elite running back the way they did with Ray Rice or Jamaal Lewis, but Collins shocked the NFL last season when he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season. Collins has even had success against the Pittsburgh during his time as a Raven, but it's difficult to imagine he'll find such success tomorrow when the Steelers come to town. Both the Ravens' starting offensive tackles will be out as neither has practiced all week. If I had to take a guess, Orlando Brown Jr. will start on the right side where he's nearly starting caliber already, and Alex Lewis will slide out to left tackle while another backup will take his place at left guard. I might be inclined to say that this setup could possibly work except that the Ravens center, despite being healthy, is probably the weakest link in the chain. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Matt Skura is too great of physical a drop-off from Ryan Jensen, and not adequately replacing last year's mauling starter will likely prove to be the biggest blunder by the Ravens player personnel department.
If the Ravens offense can't be particularly effective tomorrow, the burden will fall on a Ravens defense that looked atrocious for the past two weeks without Marlon Humphrey. Fortunately for Baltimore, it appears as though Marlon Humphrey will play tomorrow, and that will go a long way to limiting Antonio Brown. The Ravens will also miss Tim Williams, but they're so loaded with pass rushers including Matt Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Terrell Suggs that it's safe to assume Ben will feel some pressure off the edge tomorrow. Baltimore already showed it could handle the Steelers' weapons in Pittsburgh, and now they have another opportunity to do so in Baltimore. The problem is that the Ravens defense will wear down if the offense can't mount successful drives to keep the D off the field. It's also safe to say that the Steelers have gotten better since the last time these two teams faced one another.
I'd like to think that the return of the Ravens top corner along with homefield advantage and would be enough to tip things in favor of Baltimore, and I'd even like to think the Ravens will be ok without James Hurst at right tackle because Orlando Brown Jr. is such a talent. The absence of Ronnie Stanley, however, is more than the Ravens offensive line can withstand, especially because it will mean such a low level of talent at left guard as well. If Joe Flacco doesn't have time to throw and if the Ravens are even LESS effective opening up running lanes, it's difficult to see how they'll be able to see significant offensive success against a hard-nosed familiar foe.
In a league where a ton of teams have only 3 or 4 wins at this point, it's tough to count the Ravens out, but given the difficult schedule ahead of them, Sunday's game against Pittsburgh feels like a must-win contest. If you beat a team on the road, it seems only logical that you should be able to beat them at home. It is for this reason that I pray the Ravens rise to the occasion and handle their business before heading into the bye week to get healthy as the second half of the season looms. Missing key personnel doesn't always mean the Ravens will lose to the Steelers. Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in 2015 despite losing Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett. Tomorrow's game will undoubtedly be similarly hard-fought, but something just scares me about how poorly the Ravens played against a Panthers team that is not nearly as good as they appeared last Sunday. The struggled to cover tight ends, and the Steelers have multiple athletic tight ends who can shred a defense if allowed to run free.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore bounces back, but too many factors about this game make me uneasy. Without an offense that can sustain drives late in the game to burn up clock and keep the Steelers off the field, it's tough to see the Ravens stifling the Steelers' ability to mount a furious second half comeback. Hell, the Steelers may not even NEED to come back at all. One way or another, I can't in good conscience pick the Ravens to win this game, but let's hope they prove me wrong.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BEARS AT BILLS- The Bears have only truly lost tough close games against quality teams thus far. The Bills are NOT a quality team. BEARS 31-17
CHIEFS AT BROWNS- Tough to see the Browns turning things around coming off the firing of their head coach and given the current state and track record of their team--also the this opponent. The Chiefs are scary. CHIEFS 42-20
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It's been a tough recent stretch for the Fins, but they already beat the Jets in New Jersey. It's tough to imagine them losing to an uneven Jets team in Miami. DOLPHINS 23-14
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Without Stefon Diggs, it's difficult to imagine the Lions falling to the Vikings even with the limited return of Dalvin Cook. Adam Thielen is certainly having an insane season with nearly 1000 receiving yards through only the first 9 games, but without Diggs on the field, the Lions will be able to keep Thielen doubled most of the day. LIONS 24-21
FALCONS AT REDSKINS- It's amazing just how far the Falcons have fallen less than two years since their appearance in a Super Bowl. Matt Ryan and company have lost both of their road games thus far this season, and the Redskins are 3-1 at home. This will be a good day for Washingtonians. REDSKINS 34-27
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Buccaneers are an absolutely tire fire and the Panthers are gaining momentum, especially at home. PANTHERS 30-16
STEELERS AT RAVENS- John Harbaugh being on the hot seat won't mean much in a game where the Ravens are extremely short-handed on the offensive line--particularly on Flacco's blindside. If Flacco isn't comfortable in the pocket, he isn't accurate and this team doesn't run the ball well enough to take pressure off of him as it did in years past. The Ravens defense will fight mightily, but they can only stay on the field for so long. I'd like to think this will be hard-fought, but something tells me the Steelers will pull away late. I REEEEALLY hope I'm way off on this one. STEELERS 27-17
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos teed off on the worst team in the NFL two weeks ago, but they've done nothing but lose otherwise for the past couple of months. The Texans, meanwhile, have been hitting their stride since they tailored their offense to their quarterback's skill set, and now they've added Demaryius Thomas just in time to take on his old team. TEXANS 35-20
CHARGERS AT SEAHAWKS- It's tough to know what to think about the Chargers. They're 5-2, but they've won a lot of close games over some rather questionable teams with the exception of their blowout of the Browns. The Seahawks are a shell of their former self, but they've won 4 of their last 5 games in pretty convincing fashion, and the only game they lost during that stretch was a 2 point loss to the unbeaten Rams. This could truly go either way, but it's still a bad idea to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially with their current level of momentum. SEAHAWKS 23-20
RAMS AT SAINTS- This is probably the best game of the week as it pits two of the league's top teams against one another in one of the toughest road venues. The Rams keep winning, but they do so by the skin of their teeth and often to teams with iffy records. Drew Brees has more to work with than Aaron Rodgers right now, and I have a feeling his game won't be fumbled away. SAINTS 36-33
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS- If the Rams and Saints game is the best game of the week, the Packers and Patriots might be the most heavily anticipated quarterback duel of the week. Aaron Rodgers has led his team to only 3 wins, but everyone can see they're much better than their record would suggest at this point. With that said, the Patriots are an electric 6-2 with big time recent wins over the powerhouse Chiefs and a strong Bears team. Rodgers typically has some magic in him, but he's going where almost no teams come out victorious (except sometimes the Ravens). PATRIOTS 38-27
TITANS AT COWBOYS- Neither of these teams is a legitimate contender, but the Titans are atrocious on the road. COWBOYS 24-13
I'M NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ON THE RAVENS' CHANCES TODAY, BUT THIS IS A FAMILIAR FOE THAT THEY'VE ALREADY BEATEN ON THE ROAD, AND MARLON HUMPHREY IS, IN FACT, ACTIVE. LET'S HOPE JOE AND COMPANY BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY TODAY!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 28, 2018
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS
Watching Justin Tucker's missed extra point last week felt painfully similar to watching Billy Cundiff crush the dreams of nearly everyone in the greater Baltimore area in late 2011. We Ravens fans have, since 2012 at least, taken for granted that nearly everything Justin Tucker lines up for will be successful, and when the game was on the line last week, he failed. Tucker, however, was not nearly entirely to blame for the loss. That was not a superior New Orleans Saints team--though they are certainly talented.
So if not Tucker, who was the blame for last week's loss? Two major factors came into play in deciding that game, the first of which was the situation at the cornerback position. Not only was the team's top corner Marlon Humphrey out with a thigh injury, but Jimmy Smith also proved nowhere near ready to cover a #1 receiver the way he has for most of his career when healthy. Maybe the dominant win over the Titans covered up much of Smith's inadequacy, but he was brutally exposed by Mike Thomas when the Saints came marching into Baltimore, and a critical scoring drive was kept alive literally because Mike Thomas wasn't covered on two major 3rd and 4th down plays. In predicting a Ravens win, I erroneously thought Jimmy would be able to step in and mostly take Mike Thomas away the way he has in the past with Antonio Brown and a host of other receivers, but no such luck.
The defensive issues weren't entirely to blame for the loss. One rather unexpected announcement shortly before the game was that both Alex Lewis and James Hurst would be out leaving a backup at left guard and Orlando Brown at right tackle. I actually would prefer to put Brown out at right tackle permanently and bring Hurst back in at left guard where he opened up running lanes quite nicely last year, but the Ravens offensive line coach Joe D'Allesandris apparently does not agree. With that said, Hurst wasn't available either, and the Ravens ability to run the football, especially on first and second down continues to suffer. After Alex Collins or Buck Allen find daylight and breaks open for a decent run, I hear many fans clamor for the Ravens to run the football more, but they always conveniently fail to acknowledge what keeps happening when the Ravens DO try to impose their will on the ground. Time after time Collins takes a handoff and is buried behind the line of scrimmage as he waits for some kind of hole to open up. It's not until the Ravens spread a defense out and force linebackers to drop into pass coverage that Collins and Allen are able to break off any serious runs. The old hard-nosed Ravens run-first and then pass off of play action that we saw for much of the first half of Joe Flacco's career simply won't work with the current offensive line the way it's set up--especially not when they're short-handed as they were last week.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they're once again going to be without key personnel when they take on a Panthers team that has yet to lose a game at home this season. Marlon Humphrey will once again be out as will James Hurst and Alex Lewis. To make matters worse, Alex Lewis' backup Bradley Bozeman was a limited participant on Friday as he has continued to deal with a calf issue that sidelined him numerous times against the Saints. With that said, the biggest obstacle to the Ravens stopping the Panthers would have been covering a speedy receiver, and Torrey Smith along with a handful of other players has been ruled out for this game. Devin Funchess is the Panthers' leading receiver, but he possesses no type of speed to beat and of the Ravens healthy corners for big plays. Christian McCaffrey is a talented running back, but he hasn't found the endzone once this season and it's difficult to imagine him doing so against this Ravens defense.
The Panthers aren't, however, to be taken lightly. Cam Newton is a big, athletic threat to extend plays with his legs and gain tough yards on the ground. Newton also has a big arm and has 11 passing touchdowns on the season thus far. The Panthers were able to beat the Bengals at home, and that's no easy feat. With that said, the Panthers have also allowed the likes of the Giants to put up 31 points on them in North Carolina, and the Ravens have an unquestionably better offense than the Giants regardless of the G-men possessing two top-tier weapons. The Ravens shouldn't struggle to complete successful scoring drives with consistency today, nor should they struggle to cover Panthers receivers. It is for these reasons that I have a hard time seeing Baltimore losing despite the absence of their top corner and two starting offensive linemen.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
BECAUSE OF THE LATE TIMING OF THIS POST, I WILL SIMPLY POST THE PREDICTED SCORES AND WINNERS OF EACH GAME.
EAGLES AT JAGUARS- EAGLES 24-14
JETS AT BEARS- BEARS 31-23
BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 28-14
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- LIONS 21-17
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- CHIEFS 42-21
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- REDSKINS 34-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16
RAVENS AT PANTHERS- RAVENS 27-17
COLTS AT RAIDERS- COLTS 30-27
PACKERS AT RAMS- RAMS 33-24
49ERS AT CARDINALS- CARDINALS 27-14
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- SAINTS 35-27
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- PATRIOTS 49-3
THIS IS A WEEK FOR REDEMPTION, RAVENS FANS. THE RAVENS MUST BE ABLE TO PUT AWAY A TEAM AS FLAWED AS THE PANTHERS OR ELSE THEY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY AGAINST MUCH TOUGHER COMPETITION GOING FORWARD.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
So if not Tucker, who was the blame for last week's loss? Two major factors came into play in deciding that game, the first of which was the situation at the cornerback position. Not only was the team's top corner Marlon Humphrey out with a thigh injury, but Jimmy Smith also proved nowhere near ready to cover a #1 receiver the way he has for most of his career when healthy. Maybe the dominant win over the Titans covered up much of Smith's inadequacy, but he was brutally exposed by Mike Thomas when the Saints came marching into Baltimore, and a critical scoring drive was kept alive literally because Mike Thomas wasn't covered on two major 3rd and 4th down plays. In predicting a Ravens win, I erroneously thought Jimmy would be able to step in and mostly take Mike Thomas away the way he has in the past with Antonio Brown and a host of other receivers, but no such luck.
The defensive issues weren't entirely to blame for the loss. One rather unexpected announcement shortly before the game was that both Alex Lewis and James Hurst would be out leaving a backup at left guard and Orlando Brown at right tackle. I actually would prefer to put Brown out at right tackle permanently and bring Hurst back in at left guard where he opened up running lanes quite nicely last year, but the Ravens offensive line coach Joe D'Allesandris apparently does not agree. With that said, Hurst wasn't available either, and the Ravens ability to run the football, especially on first and second down continues to suffer. After Alex Collins or Buck Allen find daylight and breaks open for a decent run, I hear many fans clamor for the Ravens to run the football more, but they always conveniently fail to acknowledge what keeps happening when the Ravens DO try to impose their will on the ground. Time after time Collins takes a handoff and is buried behind the line of scrimmage as he waits for some kind of hole to open up. It's not until the Ravens spread a defense out and force linebackers to drop into pass coverage that Collins and Allen are able to break off any serious runs. The old hard-nosed Ravens run-first and then pass off of play action that we saw for much of the first half of Joe Flacco's career simply won't work with the current offensive line the way it's set up--especially not when they're short-handed as they were last week.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they're once again going to be without key personnel when they take on a Panthers team that has yet to lose a game at home this season. Marlon Humphrey will once again be out as will James Hurst and Alex Lewis. To make matters worse, Alex Lewis' backup Bradley Bozeman was a limited participant on Friday as he has continued to deal with a calf issue that sidelined him numerous times against the Saints. With that said, the biggest obstacle to the Ravens stopping the Panthers would have been covering a speedy receiver, and Torrey Smith along with a handful of other players has been ruled out for this game. Devin Funchess is the Panthers' leading receiver, but he possesses no type of speed to beat and of the Ravens healthy corners for big plays. Christian McCaffrey is a talented running back, but he hasn't found the endzone once this season and it's difficult to imagine him doing so against this Ravens defense.
The Panthers aren't, however, to be taken lightly. Cam Newton is a big, athletic threat to extend plays with his legs and gain tough yards on the ground. Newton also has a big arm and has 11 passing touchdowns on the season thus far. The Panthers were able to beat the Bengals at home, and that's no easy feat. With that said, the Panthers have also allowed the likes of the Giants to put up 31 points on them in North Carolina, and the Ravens have an unquestionably better offense than the Giants regardless of the G-men possessing two top-tier weapons. The Ravens shouldn't struggle to complete successful scoring drives with consistency today, nor should they struggle to cover Panthers receivers. It is for these reasons that I have a hard time seeing Baltimore losing despite the absence of their top corner and two starting offensive linemen.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
BECAUSE OF THE LATE TIMING OF THIS POST, I WILL SIMPLY POST THE PREDICTED SCORES AND WINNERS OF EACH GAME.
EAGLES AT JAGUARS- EAGLES 24-14
JETS AT BEARS- BEARS 31-23
BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 28-14
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- LIONS 21-17
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- CHIEFS 42-21
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- REDSKINS 34-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16
RAVENS AT PANTHERS- RAVENS 27-17
COLTS AT RAIDERS- COLTS 30-27
PACKERS AT RAMS- RAMS 33-24
49ERS AT CARDINALS- CARDINALS 27-14
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- SAINTS 35-27
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- PATRIOTS 49-3
THIS IS A WEEK FOR REDEMPTION, RAVENS FANS. THE RAVENS MUST BE ABLE TO PUT AWAY A TEAM AS FLAWED AS THE PANTHERS OR ELSE THEY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY AGAINST MUCH TOUGHER COMPETITION GOING FORWARD.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 20, 2018
SAINTS-RAVENS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Baltimore Ravens have, for nearly the last 6 years, struggled to establish any sort of lasting identity. When Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed departed in free agency, the team was left with a void in leadership and glaring positional holes that the player personnel department struggled mightily to fill. The last two seasons have ended in heartbreaking fashion with last minute 4th quarter leads vanishing in unlikely plays within the final game or two of the season. Never mind that the Ravens technically finished with a winning 9-7 record last year; it's all for naught if such a record falls short of yielding a playoff berth.
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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