Friday, December 26, 2014

WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS

     There has been no shortage of criticism of the Ravens organization over the past several weeks.  The Ravens lost to a team without an elite quarterback last week, failed to score points in the first half of the game, and thus, left many fans feeling bitter and hopeless at the notion of the Ravens securing a playoff berth.  It's not the fact that the Ravens lost to this Texans team that should anger Ravens fans, however; it's the timing of the loss.  
    I wondered all season if the Texans or Ravens would have the upper hand because of system familiarity.  It's abundantly clear that Gary Kubiak had zero tricks up his sleeve that the Texans hadn't seen, and factors beyond his control left the Ravens physically unable to handle a fiery Texans defensive front.  One could point to injuries along the offensive line as a big reason for the Ravens struggles, and they were obviously a major factor in the loss to the Texans, but I firmly believe a strategic error has led to a loss of production in recent weeks.
     The Ravens offense has clearly lost the ability to impose its will as far as the running game is concerned.  No longer do they appear to be able to run the ball on a team anticipating the run.  This is a serious problem as Gary Kubiak's offense is designed around running the football to set up the pass.  It didn't matter that the Jaguars ranked near the bottom of the league in run defense, and it didn't matter that the Texans ranked only in the middle of the pack in the same statistical category.  In both the Texans and Jaguars games, the Ravens didn't actually mount successful offensive drives until the run was largely abandoned for a faster paced, pass-heavy attack.  
     It's not that a pass-first approach should have been the strategy all season.  The Ravens offense performed extremely well with a balanced rushing and passing attack, but the run first strategy simply hasn't worked in the last two weeks even against mediocre to poor run defenses.  The Browns have a particularly poor run defense, but the Ravens will be operating without at least one and possibly both of their starting offensive tackles.  Justin Forsett also hasn't had his typical burst and explosion for the last few weeks, and that has meant a major dip in his ability to break tackles and make defenders miss.  Forsett is likely still healthy enough to play, but he won't be able to have a ton of success against any team that stacks the box with the current state of the Ravens offense line.
     The solution to this problem isn't necessarily easy, but it's certainly not complicated--it simply requires execution.  The Ravens are going to have to make use of a fairly wide array of receiving weapons, including Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Michael Campanaro (we hope), Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels, Steve Smith Sr., Crocket Gilmore, Jacoby Jones, and Kyle Juszczyk.  Instead of using the run to open things up for the pass, the Ravens will have to pass successfully to open things up for the run.  
     They'll need to begin the game in up-tempo fashion with quick passes to find a rhythm, neutralize the pass rush, keep the defense on its heels.  At this point the Ravens don't actually have to establish the run to effectively sell play-action fakes at first.  The Ravens have run the football so often at this point in the season that a team such as the Browns will do everything in its power to stop the run first.  That's where the deep passing game comes into play.  This season Flacco and Torrey Smith haven't had nearly the same deep ball chemistry as in previous years despite Torrey's career high touchdown total (10).  It's unclear if the reason for that lies in Torrey's physical preparedness, Joe's accuracy, Gary Kubiak's system, or a combination of the three, but the connection seems to be lacking for whatever reason.  This is a game where that connection MUST reappear on at least 2 to 3 attempts. 
     Even if Joe and Torrey don't connect on deep passes, the Ravens' deep threats can still do their part to advance the football by drawing pass interference flags.  A 45 yard spot foul is just as good as a 45 yard reception.  Joe Haden appears as though he'll return to the field this week, so expect him to spend much of the game attempting to cover #82.  Torrey has had success against Haden in the past, but the Browns corner has elevated his skill level to shutdown status this season, and he's a big reason the Browns have a top 10 pass defense.  I won't sing the praises of the Browns secondary TOO highly as their pass defense has not been enough to stop the last 6 opposing teams from scoring an average of 24 points per game.  The Browns have also lost 5 out of their last 6 games, with their only win during that stretch coming against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12.
    I don't care that the Ravens will be missing offensive linemen, and I don't care that their running game hasn't looked great for a few weeks.  If the Ravens don't come out firing on all cylinders on Sunday, they absolutely do not deserve a playoff spot.  It's not that this team isn't improved overall from its state last season, and it's not that a potential 10-6 record isn't usually good enough to earn at least a wildcard spot.  It's that the Ravens were two calamitous late-game plays away from sweeping the Bengals and one poor coaching decision away from beating the Chargers.    
     Think about that for a minute.  If Jimmy Smith had been covering A.J. Green on what ended up being a bobbled catch for a touchdown instead of Chykie Brown in Week 1, the Bengals punt, and the Ravens likely run down the clock and win that game.  If Terrance Brooks wasn't looking in the wrong direction on a late deep pass to Muhammad Sanu on 3rd down late in the 4th quarter in Week 8, the Ravens almost certainly hang on to win.  Finally, if the Ravens decide to run the football on 3rd and 4 from inside the 10 yard line against the Chargers, Baltimore may have been able to run enough time off the clock, possibly convert a critical first down, or simply set up a 4th and short QB sneak situation that, even if it failed, would leave the Chargers pinned back towards their own goal line with just over a minute to play. The Ravens, instead, blew three 4th quarter leads against quality teams, and winning those games would have meant the Ravens would be 12-3 going into the final week of the season with the possibility of finishing 13-3 and securing a first round bye.
     If the Ravens can't find a way to win with late 4th quarter leads against good teams, they won't go anywhere in the playoffs.  It's not as though other teams haven't appeared vulnerable at times.  The Patriots, for example, could have easily lost last week had Geno Smith simply thrown the ball away on third down when his team was in field goal range and only behind by a point in the 4th quarter.  Smith, instead, held onto the football and took a sack for a 10 yard loss that pushed the Jets out of field goal range, and the Patriots held on to win by a single point...again.  The Broncos looked sloppy and out of synch against a Bengals team that I still maintain isn't truly playoff-caliber.  The Colts only barely beat the Browns and Texans recently, and as good as the Steelers have looked this month, it wasn't that long ago that they dropped games to the Saints and Jets.  No team in the AFC is unbeatable, but every one of the aforementioned playoff teams has at least had impressive wins over more than just a couple of quality opponents this season.  The Ravens have beaten two teams with win winning records this season, the Dolphins and Steelers, and the latter team absolutely blasted Joe and the boys during their second meeting.  
    This is it.  The Ravens will depend on a slumping Chiefs team to beat a Chargers team that has started to pick up steam as of late, but the Ravens have to prove to themselves and the rest of the world that they can soundly defeat a Browns team with nothing to play for and a disastrous quarterback situation.  If Joe Flacco and company don't finish on a high note, they simply don't deserve to dance.  

    There are still some reasons for optimism.  The Chiefs DID beat the Chargers in San Diego when the Chargers were on a hot streak earlier this season.  Philip Rivers was recently diagnosed with a bulging disc in his spine, and the pass rushing duo of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will be licking their chops to take the veteran quarterback out of the game.  The Chiefs have the #2 ranked pass defense in the league, and they were able to hold the Chargers to just over 200 yards passing in their last meeting.  Ironically, the Chiefs might begin to lose motivation if their players see on the scoreboard that the Ravens are thumping the Browns early in the game, so we have to hope that the Ravens don't truly begin to pull away until the second half.  The Chiefs, after all, need a win over the Chargers and a Ravens loss to make the playoffs, and the Ravens need a win over the Browns and a Chargers loss in order to make them playoffs themselves.
     As quickly as leads tend to disappear in the 4th quarter of games, it would be profoundly unwise for either the Ravens of Chiefs to base their motivation to win on the score of another game.  The only thing they can control is their own performance; they can't control how another team in another game performs.  Both games begin at the same time, and both games will presumably end around roughly the same time, so it will behoove each team to fight to the bitter end.  The Chiefs are undoubtedly aware of the Ravens' tendency this season to lose late game leads, and that should be motivation for Kansas City to never give up.  The Ravens and Chiefs are both favored to win their respective games...so why do I feel so incredibly doubtful as the weekend approaches?  
      The game is in Baltimore, and the team needs its 12th man.  This is no time for doubt, and this is no time for fear.  It's time for our favorite team to win a football game and hope that another team wins theirs.  If the Ravens finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs, it's not the end of the world.  This team has a host of bright young stars that will only get better over the course of the next few seasons.  C.J. Mosley has won a Pro Bowl invitation as a rookie, and that's a feat no Raven--not Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Jonathan Ogden--has ever done.  Timmy Jernigan is an absolute monster, Rashaan Melvin will likely continue to develop as a solid corner, Lorenzo Taliaferro should be a ferocious battering ram for years to come, Rick Wagner is the 2nd best right tackle in the entire NFL, and Michael Campanaro could become an incredible slot receiver if he can simply stay healthy.  
     I don't think anyone sees this team winning more than a single playoff game...let alone the Super Bowl, but that doesn't mean they can't come back with a healthy Jimmy Smith next season and be loaded and ready to retake the AFC North and fight for the AFC title.  Whatever happens, I'm proud of this team, and I'm proud of the 2014 draft class.  No one wins the Super Bowl every year or even every decade, but as long as this team stays competitive and hungry, Ravens fans will have hope every single year.  Ok, it's time for the picks!

WEEK 17 NFL PREDICTIONS

 BROWNS AT RAVENS-  This is the Ravens' last stand.  There is no scenario where they can lose this game and move on to the post-season.  They're playing a team that has done nothing but lose in the last month, but it's a team that always seems to play the the Ravens tough.  The Cleveland Browns have turned into a bad football team lately, but there's nothing that would make them happier than to reach .500 and spoil the Ravens' season in the process.  Baltimore's offensive line will not be as strong without Rick Wagner, and Justin Forsett can't be counted on to have a big game, though I certainly hope he proves me wrong on that end.  This game will fall on the shoulders of Joe Flacco, the Ravens receiving corps, and the Ravens defense.  The Texans had a strong enough defense and an intimate enough knowledge of Gary Kubiak's system to halt Baltimore in its tracks despite starting Case Keenum.  The Browns' quarterback situation is even more uncertain as they appear ready to start one of two quarterbacks with little familiarity with their team's offense.  Josh Gordon has not been the game-changer the Browns had hoped he'd be since his return last this season, and Andrew Hawkins has yet to practice this week with a thumb injury.  I won't get so cocky as to suggest that the Ravens couldn't lose this game, but there's nothing from the Browns that would give me any reason to suggest Cleveland will win.  The Browns can't make the post-season, so one has to assume that players won't be looking to throw their bodies unnecessarily into harm's way just to win a relatively meaningless football game.  This is it.  It's now or never, Baltimore.  RAVENS 24-17

COWBOYS AT REDSKINS-  The Cowboys are perplexingly better on the road than at home this season, but the Redskins would love nothing more than to ruin the Cowboys' seeding for the post-season.  Despite the Redskins defeat of the Cowboys in Dallas earlier this year, and despite the Redskins' recent success against the Eagles, I simply can't predict the worse team to win here.  The Cowboys are dialed in and ready to solidify their spot in the playoffs.  Dallas is undefeated on the road this season, that's not about to change now.  COWBOYS 28-23

COLTS AT TITANS- The Colts will have a 4th seed regardless of whether or not they beat the Titans and regardless of whether or not the Bengals or Steelers win on Sunday.  It would, therefore, behoove the Colts to sit their starters this week against the Titans in order to get as healthy as possible before the post-season begins.  I would be shocked if the Colts' starters played for more than the first quarter on Sunday.  This is a completely meaningless game. TITANS 27-13

JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Texans have a slim chance at going to the playoffs, but a chance nonetheless.  Case Keenum isn't any sort of long term solution for Houston, but he is still a competent enough game manager to beat the Jaguars.  TEXANS 33-20

CHARGERS AT CHIEFS-  The Chargers aren't exactly on some sort of hot streak.  They've lost 2 out of their last 3 and 5 of their last 9 games.  The Chiefs, however, have lost 3 of their last 4 games.  What the Chargers HAVE been able to do is win two monumental road games by a combined 4 points against the Ravens and 49ers.  The last time these two teams met was in San Diego, and the Chiefs won 23-20 to end the Chargers' winning streak.  Since that game, both teams have experienced a host of significant injuries.  The Chiefs lost Eric Berry to cancer treatment, and now both Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles are questionable with shoulder and ankle injuries.  The Chargers have lost multiple starting centers, and they put their starting right guard on injured reserve earlier this week.  Keenan Allen is questionable after breaking his collarbone a month ago, and Ryan Matthews is questionable with an ankle injury.  Neither offensive weapon has practiced yet this week, but they have not yet been ruled out.  Philip Rivers has been playing with a bulging disc in his spine, and with top notch pass rushers such as Justin Houston and Tamba Hali bearing down upon him, old Phil could find himself in a world of hurt if he's not able to get the ball out quickly.   
     The Chargers don't match up well against teams with good corners.  The 49ers had a great defense this season, but their defensive collapse at the end of the game last week may have been more of a function of exhaustion and a lack of drive to win.  The 49ers, of course, were already eliminated from playoff contention, and their head coach appears to be gone by the end of the season for greener pastures.  Everything logical about this game leads me to believe the Chargers will have difficulty moving the football...but somehow I feel as though injuries just can't seem to stop Philip Rivers from making plays and scoring furiously late in games.  My brain tells me the Chiefs win this one by a touchdown, but my gut tells me the Chargers have more to play for and unflinching confidence in their quarterback as of late. I beg Andy Reid to prove me wrong on this one--the Ravens' playoff chances depend almost entirely on it.  CHARGERS 24-23

JETS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins beat the Jets in New Jersey, I see no reason why they won't turn around and beat the Jets in Miami.  DOLPHINS 20-17

 BEARS AT VIKINGS- Teddy is about to beat up on the Bears...kinda weird when you put it that way.  VIKINGS 34-14

BILLS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have already clinched the division and home field advantage in the playoffs.  It would be wise of them to sit their starters and get an extra week's rest. There's no point in putting Brady and company at any unnecessary risk right before the playoffs.  BILLS 35-10

EAGLES AT GIANTS-  The Eagles are unquestionably the better team, but it's tough to predict games between eliminated teams--especially divisional rivals.  EAGLES 38-30

SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS-  The Saints have been mostly awful this season, but the Bucs have been worse.  This game will be about Drew Brees desperately trying to prove he can still win football games. SAINTS 34-21

PANTHERS AT FALCONS-  The Panthers aren't good enough on the road, and there's no way that Carolina's offense will be able to keep up with that of the Falcons in Atlanta.  FALCONS 31-16

LIONS AT PACKERS- I like the Lions defense, but I haven't been impressed by the Lions offense in the last two weeks.  I can't see the Packers winning the Super Bowl, because they'd likely have to go back to Seattle to get there.  This should be quite similar to the Patriots-Packers game, and a formidable Lions team will come up short in the end.  PACKERS 28-26

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Raiders have shown the ability to beat strong teams in Oakland, but they're like fish out of water on the roadThe Broncos have to win to ensure the Bengals don't leapfrog them in the playoff seeding with a win over Pittsburgh.  BRONCOS 41-20

CARDINALS AT 49ERS- One of these teams has something to play for and it's not the 49ers.  The Cardinals, however, are a very different team than the one that beat the 49ers in Arizona earlier this season.  The Cardinals will be starting a rookie quarterback against a 49ers defense that still ranks in the top 10.  49ERS 23-13

RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Seahawks win home field advantage if they take care of business at home against the Rams.  This is a much different Seahawks team than the one that began the season 3-3.  SEAHAWKS 42-14

BENGALS AT STEELERS-  The Steelers have been hit or miss for much of this season, but they hit big time in their win over the Bengals in Cincy only three weeks ago.  The Bengals shouldn't pat themselves on the back too hard for beating a slumping Peyton Manning in driving rain at home.  The Bengals will be coming off of a short week and going on the road--that's never a recipe for success.  A.J. Green has made his way back to practice, but his arm appeared pretty messed up and useless on Monday--I can't imagine he'll be 100% by Sunday night.  The Steelers secondary isn't top notch, but their run defense is good enough to make the Bengals one dimensional.  The Steelers should be firing on all cylinders at home to win the AFC North and the 3rd seed in playoffs.  If the Ravens are fortunate enough to make their way into the post-season, they'll play the winner of this game...I hope it's the Bengals, but I believe it'll be the Steelers.  STEELERS 35-27

     There is still reason for hope if you're a Ravens fan.  There's a good chance that both the Chiefs and Ravens win their respective games on Sunday with the Ravens moving on to the post-season.  I do NOT, however, like the Ravens' chances of making a run in the playoffs.  This is a team that has struggled to put away winning teams all season, and they've reached what appears to be a tipping point with injuries.  If they make the playoffs, a well-rested Haloti Ngata could give their defensive line a boost, but the loss of Rick Wagner could be too much for the Ravens to overcome against the likes of the Bengals and the Steelers.  I'll always maintain hope that something magical could happen as it did in 2012-2013, but the Ravens got healthy at the right time that year and had the veteran leadership and experience to motivate and guide that team to Super Bowl glory.  
     True Ravens fans should, instead, be excited about all the tremendous young talent on this team and the prospect of the Ravens being one of the most complete, dominant teams in the league in 2015 with a little help from the draft.  2014 may just go down as one of the top two or three greatest draft classes in Ravens history, and that's worth celebrating whatever happens this weekend.  Injuries can take down the personnel of any team in any year, and that doesn't mean the organization isn't top notch, it's simply bad fortune and the nature of the game.  I believe in Joe Flacco, I believe in Ozzie Newsome, and I believe in the Ravens.  Whether or not they move on to the next round, let's hope the birds give us one HELL of a show on Sunday.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

 



 

Friday, December 19, 2014

WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS

     Earlier this season I mentioned not knowing whether the Texans would have an advantage against the Ravens because of their familiarity with Gary Kubiak's offense or whether Gary Kubiak would have an advantage attacking the defense of the team of which he was head coach for 8 seasons.  It's difficult to know the answer to that question, but it may not matter.  The Texans appear too riddled with key injuries to stop a Ravens team absolutely hell-bent on a return to the playoffs.  The Texans, in fact, have only beaten the Ravens once in the history of both teams, and that defeat didn't ultimately impede the Ravens as they won the Super Bowl that season.
     The Texans appeared relatively formidable in recent weeks with Ryan Fitzpatrick back in the driver's seat of the Houston offense--then he broke his leg.  Tom Savage took over for Fitzpatrick last Sunday and proceeded to injure his knee one of the final offensive snaps of the game.  The Texans picked up Case Keenum off of the Rams' practice squad, and now the Texans must decide between a quarterback who lost all nine games he started last season (Case Keenum) and a quarterback with over twice as many turnovers as touchdowns in his career (Thad Lewis).  These are not ideal candidates to lead desperate team in final desperate effort to secure an unlikely playoff berth.  Beyond the aforementioned fallen quarterbacks, the Texans had several key weapons miss from practice on Thursday. DeAndre Hopkins is listed as day-to-day, and I have almost never seen a player listed with that distinction actually proceed to play that same week.  The Texan's tight end, Garrett Graham will be out with a high ankle sprain once again this weekend.  Jonathan Joseph, Mike Mohammed, and Xavier Su'a-Filo all have yet to practice this week.
     The Ravens can't pretend as though THEY are operating at full strength with the calamitous volume of turnover in their secondary, but the core of their defense is healthy and so is that of the offense.  The Ravens don't have to worry about the health of their quarterback going into Sunday, and despite the presence of J.J. Watt, Joe Flacco should feel fairly comfortable with the protection of his offensive line.  Flacco, after all, ranks as the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL behind Peyton Manning.  The Ravens offensive line has only allowed Flacco to be sacked 16 times this season, while last season he was sacked a whopping 48 times which ranked him 2nd most sacked QB in the league.  J.J. Watt will undoubtedly make plays, but his presence wasn't enough to beat a MUCH worse Ravens team last season, and I doubt it'll be enough to overcome unusually dire circumstances at the Texans quarterback position.
     If Ryan Fitzpatrick were facing the Ravens this week, I would be fairly nervous heading into this weekend.  The Ravens truly lucked out with his absence.  Last weekend's uncomfortably close win over the Jaguars at home should hopefully remind us, however, that games are played and won on the field and not on paper.  The idea that either Case Keenum or Thad Lewis will have what it takes to evade Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Timmy Jernigan, Pernell McPhee, and C.J. Mosley just doesn't seem realistic. This is arguably the greatest set up pass rushers during John Harbaugh's tenure in Baltimore.  The Ravens clearly have issues at the corner position, but their issues at safety have been relatively solidified as of late with Will Hill playing well at free safety and Jeromy Miles holding down the strong safety position.
     It's likely that the Texans will look to run the football early to take pressure off whichever quarterback is ultimately chosen to start, but the elite Ravens run defense should have little trouble handing a somewhat injured Arian Foster.  The Ravens should be able to force the Texans into 3rd and long passing situations wherein the likes of Suggs and Dumervil will terrorize an untalented or inexperienced quarterback.  The Texans will get Andre Johnson back after he missed time for a concussion, but he's not nearly as explosive as in his 20s, and the Ravens haven't typically had unusual trouble making him a relative non-factor. The Texans' true number one receiver doesn't appear as though he'll play with an ankle injury.  DeAndre Hopkins accounts for 1187 of the Texan's receiving yards this season, and his absence would virtually eliminate the Texans deep passing option.
      The Ravens offense will be looking to bounce back after a poor showing last week against the Jaguars.  We should expect to see Joe Flacco spread the ball out to the likes of Marlon Brown, Torrey Smith, Michael Campanaro, Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, Owen Daniels, and Kyle Juszczyk as well as a healthy dose of Forsett and Pierce.  Teams can no longer simply double team Torrey Smith to halt this Ravens offense as was the case last season.
     There are teams in the league built to beat the Baltimore Ravens.  Those teams have athletic, top-tier quarterbacks with great receiving weapons as well as the the ability to stop the run and rush the passer.  The Texans are not one of those teams.  Houston has the 25th pass offense in the league, and their pass defense is ranked 27th.  Almost all of the Texans' offensive weapons are dealing with nagging injuries, and the man who will deliver them the ball has not yet played a snap of football for the Texans this season. Case Keenum has the most experience in this system, but he has only ever lost football games in his professional career.  I don't expect the Texans to simply roll over, and every road game in the NFL is a serious challenge.  The Ravens, however, appear too dialed-in to lose to a team dealing with such incredible turmoil at key positions.  Ok, time for this week's picks!

WEEK 16 NFL PREDICTIONS


EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Redskins have fallen apart.  The Eagles are desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, and the Redskins simply won't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Chip Kelly's system.  EAGLES 31-21

CHARGERS AT 49ERS-  The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen, and both Philip Rivers and Ryan Matthews are banged up.  The 49ers don't have much to play for at this point other than pride, but this is a game they can win.  The 49ers still have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league and the 8th ranked run defense in the league.  This prediction might be a touch of wishful thinking, but Rivers should have problems without his best deep threat and a hobbled running back against an elite defense.  49ERS 19-14

VIKINGS AT DOLPHINS-  The Dolphins just lost to two of the best teams in the AFC in the last two weeks.  The Vikings have a good pass defense, but they won't have an answer for Lamar Miller.  Tannehill will simply outperform Teddy Bridgewater this week. DOLPHINS 27-21

RAVENS AT TEXANS-  I've read a lot of optimistic comments online from Texans fans that believe Case Keenum's return will solve the Texans' problems this week.   I can't blame them for being unflinchingly optimistic about their favorite team (I usually am), but I didn't see anything from Keenum last season that would lead me to believe he could arrive back with his old team and turn things around with less than a week of practice.  This game is personal for Gary Kubiak and Owen Daniels.  Expect Flacco to target his tight end in the redzone 2-3 times this weekend.  The Ravens offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, and Watt will have a tough time getting after the second least sacked quarterback in the NFL, especially off of play-action. RAVENS 28-17

LIONS AT BEARS- The Lions could win their division, and the Bears have given up.  Cutler couldn't move the ball against the Saints--imagine how he'll be able to move the ball against the Lions.  LIONS 33-16

BROWNS AT PANTHERS-  As bad as they looked earlier in the season, the Panthers appear ready to fight to the bitter end with the Saints for their division title.  By starting Johnny Manziel, the Browns have essentially given up on the season in hopes of giving Johnny as much game experience as possible for next year.  Manziel embarrassed himself at home, and there's no way his first win comes on the road.  PANTHERS 34-10

FALCONS AT SAINTS-  These teams are rather similar, and this is one of the top three most difficult predictions of the week.  The Falcons top wide receievers, Julio Jones and Roddy White, both have not practiced this week due to injuries.  If both are healthy enough to be effective on Sunday, this game will be a shootout of epic proportions.  It's tough to know that now, however, and I may ultimately amend this prediction before Sunday depending on the final status for the Falcons wideouts.  For now I'll go with Brees. SAINTS 38-28

PACKERS AT BUCCANEERS-  It the last prediction was one of the toughest of the week, this one is the easiest.  PACKERS 42-14

CHIEFS AT STEELERS-  The Steelers have faced only one top 10 defense this season, and they lost that game to the Jets.  There's a chance that Tamba Hali and Justin Houston terrorize Ben Roethlisberger to the point that he makes major, game-changing errors that give the Chiefs a chance to win...but I'm not counting on it.  The Steelers can run the football, and the Chiefs struggle to stop the run.  If they go after Ben, Le'Veon Bell will run the ball right down the Chiefs' throats.  If the Chiefs happen to catch the Steelers on one of their off-weeks to which they've been prone this season, then the Ravens get a huge boost in their chances of winning the division.  If the Steelers beat the Chiefs, however, the Ravens take one step closer to at least securing a wildcard spot.  I'd always love to see the Steelers lose, but either outcome can be viewed as positive for this game.  STEELERS 34-21

PATRIOTS AT JETS-  The last time the Jets faced this Patriots team, the game came down to a last minute drive that the Jets had hoped would culminate in a field goal to win the game.  The Jets typically get one solid, hard-fought game against the Patriots each season--and one absolute blowout.  This game is in New Jersey, but the Patriots are the only team playing for something.  I'd love to be wrong about this one though. PATRIOTS 30-17

GIANTS AT RAMS- RAMS 24-21

BILLS AT RAIDERS-  The Raiders haven't been bad at home recently, but defense travels well, and the Bills have one of the best defenses in the league.  BILLS 27-16

COLTS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys have only lost games at home this season, but the Colts have not impressed me recently.  If the Colts can't score more than 17 points at home against the Texans, I have no idea how they plan to outscore the Cowboys on the road.  COWBOYS 35-20

SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS-  The Seahawks have rounded nearly back into their form from last season.  The Cardinals will once again be unable to move the ball against the league's top ranked defense (by yardage). SEAHAWKS 20-13

BRONCOS AT BENGALS- Peyton Manning hasn't been himself as of late, but the Broncos just continue to win.  They held a relatively potent Chargers offense to 10 points, and they scored 24 points against the Bills defense.  The Broncos can run the football, and when they need to, they can pass the football as well as anyone in the league.  I expect Peyton to be over whatever illness that ailed him last week.  BRONCOS 24-20

     If the Ravens win this week and the Chargers and Chiefs lose, the Ravens clinch at least a wildcard spot for the first time since 2012.  If the Ravens win and the Bengals and Steelers both lose, however, the Ravens also clinch a playoff spot, and move into first place in the AFC North and only need to beat the Browns the following week to finish 11-5 and the AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS!  Oddsmakers give the Ravens a 77% percent chance of returning to the playoffs this season, and I like those odds!

IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIIIME OF THE YEEEAR,
THERE'LL BE MUCH TOUCHDOWN THROWING,
AND SACK TOTALS GROWING,
WHILE RAVENS FANS CHEEEEEER,
IT'S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIIIIIIIIIIME,
OF THE YEEEEEEEAR

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
 













Monday, December 15, 2014

RAVENS PLAYOFF PATH: THE POST-SEASON IN SIGHT

     As I stated in my Week 15 predictions, I didn't expect the Falcons to beat the Steelers without a healthy receiving corps.  Matt Ryan and company still managed to make the game close in the 4th quarter, but a team with virtually no pass defense is not going to stop a Steelers team that now ranks 2nd in the league is passing yards per game--well done, Ben.  I didn't truly believe that Johnny Manziel would put up an incredible performance in his first pro start, but I also didn't believe he would be nearly useless.  It would have been great if one or both of the teams that faced the Bengals and Steelers this weekend could have pulled off an upset, but each team was clearly outmatched.  The Ravens, instead, kept pace with the Steelers, and crept ever closer to a playoff berth of some kind.  The Ravens have no control over how the Bengals and Steelers finish the regular season, but there are several MAJOR factors working in the Ravens favor as they make their final playoff push over the next two weeks.
     Anyone watching the Ravens-Jaguars game likely heard news in the first half that the Texan's veteran quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, was carted off the field in Indianapolis.  As it turned out, not only was Fitzpatrick injured, but he is out for the rest of the season with a broken leg.  The Texans turned to their rookie 3rd string quarterback, Tom Savage, and found little success in the former 4th round draft pick.  To make matters worse, Tom Savage took an impact to the knee near the end of the game, and is scheduled to get an MRI to assess the state of the joint.  The Texans defense held an ordinarily potent Colts offense to a mere 17 points, but the Texans simply don't have the offensive production at this point to win games against competitive teams.  J.J. Watt's phenomenal season might prove in vain as the Texans have little chance left at a playoff spot with Savage at the helm.
      The Ravens have the hottest pass rush in the NFL, and there's nothing they'd love more than to face a rookie with limited experience, minimal talent, and an injured knee.  Watt is a dominant force and more than deserving of the title Defensive Player of the Year, but the Texans have almost no serious pass rush aside from him.  The Texans as a team have 31 sacks on the season--J.J. Watt has accounted for 16.5.  The Ravens, on the other hand, have 45 total team sacks, and their pass rush only appears to be gaining momentum as Timmy Jernigan has seen increased playing time.  Jernigan has 4 sacks in the last 5 games, and appears to be faster, more explosive pass rusher than Haloti Ngata at this point in Ngata's career.  C.J. Mosley also appears occasionally ferocious in the pass rushing department whenever he is brought in on a blitz.  Pernell McPhee has added 5.5 sacks on the season, and the Suggs-Dumervil tandem is now easily the greatest pass rushing pair in the NFL and in Ravens history with 28 sacks...and counting.
     The Ravens can simply bring pressure from to many different athletes, and no rookie with a knee injury will be able to handle it.  Arian Foster is still an effective runner, but the Ravens own the 4th ranked run defense in the league, and that run defense is even more effective when opposing passing attacks sputter.  The Ravens offense appeared out of sync against the Jaguars, but as I mentioned in pre-game analysis, the Jaguars have two defensive linemen from last year's Super Bowl Champion Seahawks defense, and that has meant trouble in the first half for many teams this season.  I won't judge the Ravens too harshly.  The Steelers have an incredibly potent offense this season, and they only managed to beat the Jaguars 17-9.  If the Ravens have a bad day and STILL win the game...it's a good day.  With that said, the Texans simply don't have pass defense strong enough to slow down Flacco and a talented array of receivers.  There are probably a fair number of other statistical and strategic reasons one could argue in favor of a Ravens victory next week, but this one is the most important and absolutely the bottom line: the Ravens have only lost too experienced, top-level quarterbacks this season and have feasted on everyone else.  An injured rookie should be no different.
     Another team currently starting a rookie quarterback is the Cleveland Browns.  Unlike Tom Savage, Johnny Manziel has no injury-related excuse for being awful.  I might have thought that Manziel would bring a level of mobility and athleticism to the quarterback position for the Browns, but if he brought those things on Sunday, he also forgot to bring an understanding of the offense and/or the ability to throw the ball to receivers.  Johnny Manziel threw for 80 yards and two interceptions in his debut as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns.  I understand why the Browns organization felt the need to bench Brian Hoyer, but I hope this lays to rest any idea that Manziel would or will do ANY better than a veteran that won 7 games thus far this season.  The Browns have almost no shot of getting to the playoffs at this point, and their odds appear to be miniscule if Johnny Football is put in charge of this offense.  To make matters worse for the Browns, their top cornerback, Joe Haden, came out of the Sunday's game with a shoulder injury and never returned to action.  The Ravens barely squeaked out a win on the road against the Browns earlier in the season, but now the Browns come to Baltimore, and they face long odds if they find themselves without their top defensive back and a serviceable signal caller.
     The Ravens' road to 11 wins appears quite clear as both the Browns and Texans have major issues at the quarterback position and possess little chance at a trip to the post-season for motivation to win in the final weeks of the season.  The Ravens can't choose how well the Bengals and Steelers do in the next two weeks, but both AFC North rivals have much tougher obstacles awaiting them in order to secure a playoff spot.  The Bengals must play the Broncos in Cincinnati next Sunday, and although Peyton Manning has been sick recently, Denver continues to win one way or another.  The Broncos clinched the AFC West division on Sunday with their second win over the Chargers, but they'll need to win one more game to secure at least a second seed in the playoffs and a first round bye.  The Patriots currently have the same record as the Broncos, but the Patriots own a tiebreaker over Peyton Manning and company because of their head-to-head victory in Week 9.  New England has already beaten both of the teams left on their schedule, but they only beat the Jets by a single point in Foxboro earlier this season, and the Bills looked defensively impressive in their win today over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  If the Patriots lose either one of those games, the Broncos could potentially secure a #1 seed and guaranteed home-field advantage through the playoffs if they can beat both the Bengals and Raiders...so let's hope they beat the Bengals next weekend.
     If the Bengals find a way to beat the Broncos next weekend, then at least they'll face the tough task of beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers only recently thumped the Bengals 42-21 in Cincinnati, so this does not appear a favorable match-up for Marvin Lewis' team to end the season. I fully expect the Steelers to win that game, but the Steelers have been incredibly difficult to predict this season, and they could easily split with the Bengals.  Why do I say this?  Well the Steelers appeared to once again have the Browns number in Week 1, but then the Browns beat Pittsburgh to a pulp in their second meeting.  The Ravens appeared to have the Steelers all figured out win Week 2, but then the Ravens traveled to the Steel City and lost by an equally alarming margin.  The Steelers, thus, have split with all of the divisional rivals that they've played twice so far, so who knows what could happen.  With that said, the prospect of the Bengals being fortunate enough to win out appear razor thin. In other words, the Bengals might find a way to outscore a sniffling Peyton or they might rise to the occasion and beat the Steelers, but they likely won't do both.
     The Steelers, meanwhile, have two home games to finish the season, and neither game is against an easy team.  The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh in Week 16, and that could be more of a headache for Steelers fans than many probably realize. The Chiefs have a poor run defense, and that should certainly work in the Steelers' favor, but the Steelers also have a recent history of losing upset games to the Chiefs such as in 2009 and 2012.  I refuse to place any stock in teams of years past, but this Chiefs team has a potent rushing attack and only one less win than the Steelers. 
     What does this all mean for the Ravens?  Well the ideal scenario for baltimore is that the Bengals and Steelers each lose at least one more game while the Ravens beat two weak teams to finish 11-5.  The great thing for the Ravens is that at least one of these AFC North rivals HAS to lose in the final week of the season because they both play one another.  If the Steelers win out, however, they win the division and home-field advantage in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.  If the Bengals lose to the Broncos but find a way to beat the Steelers Week 17, the Ravens will win the division as long as they handle business against the Texans and Browns. 
     The Ravens are in control of their own destiny.  If they win both of their remaining games, they are guaranteed at LEAST a playoff spot.  If I had to guess as to which scenario will likely occur, I would say that the Steelers will win out, win the division, the Ravens will win out win the 5th seed wildcard spot, and the Bengals will lose out leaving their playoff fate in the hands of the Chargers who could easily go 10-6 and snag the final wildcard spot leaving the Bengals at home for the first time in 4 years.  I'll admit that I'm still upset that the Ravens were one first down away from beating the Chargers and making a 12-4 season well within reach, but there's no looking back now.  If the Ravens get into the playoffs, they simply can't fear any opponent.  Yes, getting home-field advantage is fantastic, but Joe Flacco has 7 post-season road wins and only two post-season home wins.  To put it bluntly, if this team can't go on the road and beat everyone in their path in the playoffs, they simply don't deserve to be Super Champions.  I don't think anyone is oroclaiming the Ravens Super Bowl favorites at the moment...but then again, the Ravens were underdogs at nearly every stage of their two Super Bowl runs.  Baltimore must have a fighter's mentality of not being afraid to step into the ring with anyone if hope to upset the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning once again.

PROBLEMS IN THE SECONDARY?
 
     Much has been said about the Ravens' weak secondary this season.  The loss of 5 different cornerbacks and the constant rotation of safeties has meant Baltimore has had to rely on a patchwork pass defense.  Top tier quarterbacks such as Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger have put up massive yardage totals through the air against our beloved defense, and some believe this team simply can't beat a team featuring an elite QB.  There is, however, a lot more to it than that.
     There is no question that this is the worst secondary in Ravens history.  Inconsistent safety play has, in the past, helped to cover up for a relatively weak crew of starting corners such as Dominique Foxworth and Fabian Washington.  The Ravens no longer have the greatest safety in NFL history patrolling the middle of the field.  They, instead, have Will Hill, Jeromy Miles, and Darian Stewart.  Will Hill has begun to settle in and even had some flashes of brilliance.  Jeromy Miles has been solid at times, and Darian Stewart has been embarrassing except for his blocked punt that led to a touchdown yesterday. 
     There was one bright spot in the Ravens secondary yesterday, and that was Rashaan Melvin.  Melvin had never played in an actual NFL game in his life.  He had injury issues that led to him being bounced around practice squads.  The young guy has all the physical tools, however, to be a serious asset to this team.  He's 6'2" 193 pounds and ran a 4.44 combine forty yard dash.  As soon as Asa Jackson went down with a PCL injury, Melvin came in and immediately made an impact.  The big-bodied corner made 5 tackles and 1 pass breakup while playing to the energy of the crowd like a veteran.  Who knows how a guy with such little actual game experience will do against more talented receivers, but he appeared far more effective yesterday than Asa Jackson did before he exited with his injury.  We'll know more about the young defensive back's abilities over the next two weeks.
     Regardless of poor performance in the secondary, though, the Ravens still have the build of a championship team in a number of respects.  Four of the last seven Super Bowl Champions had secondaries ranked near the bottom of the league, but possessed dominant pass rushes to help cover up for issues on the back end.  The Ravens have a top offense, a top run defense, and some of the best pass protection in the league.  They also have the greatest road quarterback in NFL post-season history.  Joe Flacco is having the best statistical season of his career.  He ranks 5th in overall QBR ahead of Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers, and Andrew Luck. Joe ranks behind only Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Tom Brady. 
     I think one thing that most people have not considered when speaking about the Ravens losses to elite quarterbacks is what exactly those quarterbacks had in common aside from being elite.  Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees are all rather mobile quarterbacks that excel at extending plays with their legs. The Ravens likely won't face Brees (not that they'd be afraid to) and there's a decent chance they won't face Philip Rivers in the playoffs.  Andrew Luck is far less of a threat without Ahmad Bradshaw, and that leaves only Ben Roethlisberger as a major mobile/elite threat to the Ravens in the post-season.  One might worry that the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would carve up the Ravens (and they very well may do so) but neither has the mobility to evade a harrowing lineup of Ravens pass rushers.  I, in fact, would LOVE the Ravens to travel once again to Denver to face the Broncos.  Peyton Manning has looked off as of late, and his ability to play in cold weather has proven to be limited in recent years.  Going into Foxboro to face the Patriots is no easy task, but the Ravens are 2-1 in Foxboro in the playoffs, and Joe Flacco has no fear of that venue.  If the Ravens can simply find secondary personnel combination that allows pass rushers time to get to elite quarterbacks, I like the Ravens odds of winning games this post-season.

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE PLAYOFFS
THIS IS A DANGEROUS TEAM WHEN IT'S ALL ON THE LINE

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
 

Saturday, December 13, 2014

WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS

     The Ravens won 7 of their first 12 games this season, but no win felt quite as triumphant and season-defining as last Sunday's victory on the road over a formidable Dolphins team.  The Dolphins entered the game with the same record as the Ravens, but the Dolphins, unlike the Ravens up to that point, had won a handful of games against quality opponents including the Patriots, Chargers, and Bills.  To go on the road and win where both the Chargers and Patriots failed is no small task.  The NFL is typically saturated with parity, and it's particularly difficult to predict who will this season as many teams have displayed profound inconsistency.  This particular win over the Dolphins, however, suggests more than just league parity to me--it suggests the Ravens have finally found their strategy to effectively deal with incredible turnover in the secondary.
     The Ravens secondary will continue to be at least somewhat of a problem going forward, I'm sure.  Without Jimmy Smith and a fully healthy Lardarius Webb, the Ravens simply won't have anyone who can truly match up against elite receivers catching passes from elite quarterbacks.  Dean Pees made great defensive adjustments to put the defensive backs at his disposal in the best positions to prevent a quick release from Ryan Tannehill and allow the ferocious Ravens pass rush to get after the young signal caller.  The Ravens contained Tannehill and sacked him a total of 6 times.
     The Ravens defense almost totally shut down the Dolphins offense after the first quarter, but the true triumph was in the Ravens offensive production against the 2nd ranked secondary in the NFL.  Joe Flacco was masterful in picking apart an elite secondary without even a single pass to Torrey Smith who sat out most of the game due to knee swelling.  Flacco, instead, spread the football out to the likes of Steve Smith Sr., Marlon Brown, Phillip Supernaw, and Kamar Aiken.  It appeared as though the Dolphins were committed to stopping the Ravens rushing attack, so Joe Flacco was turned loose and put up nearly 280 yards and two passing touchdowns along with one rushing TD. 
     Joe Flacco's rushing TD is a reflection of one of the best aspects of this Ravens offense in 2014. Flacco has successfully converted 11 out of 12 attempts at quarterback sneaks on 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 situations.  John Harbaugh was SO confident in the effectiveness of this play that he had Joe go for it on 4th and 1 from fairly deep in their own territory early in the second half of the game against the Dolphins.  It's possible that this play could ultimately become stale if the Ravens overuse it and teams assume the Ravens will run it on most short yardage situations, but the Ravens have attempted this play less than one time per game this season.  Maybe it doesn't matter if teams assume the Ravens will have Joe sneak it in.  Maybe Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are threatening enough that teams can't bank on simply stuffing the QB at the line, and maybe the Ravens offensive line is so physical this season that it has been able to impose its will regardless of whether or not opposing defenses can see a QB sneak coming.  One way or another, it's working.
     The Ravens shouldn't have a tremendous amount of difficulty imposing their will on the Jaguars.  The Jags are near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical category, and they will be without their leading rusher, Dennard Robinson.  The Jaguars do have some talented defensive linemen from last year's Super Bowl Champion Seahawks team, and that has often meant a slow start for opposing teams.  In the second halves of games, however, most teams have pulled thunderously away from the Jaguars.  The Ravens pass-rushing tandem of Suggs and Dumervil could potentially post more sacks than last week as the Jaguars have given up the most sacks of any team in the league...by far.  It's not inconceivable that Dumervil could finish Sunday with roughly 20 sacks on the season, and Suggs could move into double digits.
     Possibly the most important thing about this weekend's game against the Jaguars is not the prospect of a big win, but the potential of what a big lead could allow the Ravens to do.  If the Ravens find themselves beating the Jaguars by a great point margin long before the game is over, the coaching staff could potentially afford to sit players with minor, nagging injuries.  I don't expect Torrey Smith to play much if at all.  The Ravens have a talented and well-fortified enough receiving corps to put up big passing numbers without him.  It's possible that the Ravens could also give Justin Forsett a break after a large lead has been established.  Forsett has played incredibly well this season, but he'll need relatively fresh legs if the Ravens hope to get to and win some games in the playoffs.  The Ravens should not and will not overlook this game, but there's no reason to wear down key players if it's not absolutely necessary.  The Ravens beat the Dolphins on the road without Torrey Smith seriously involved--they can CERTAINLY beat the Jaguars at HOME without him.  It appears as though this game as come at precisely the right time.  On to the picks!

WEEK 15 NFL PREDICTIONS

STEELERS AT FALCONS- The outcome of this game likely will depend on the health of the Falcons receiving corps.  Julio Jones leads the NFL with over 1400 receiving yards, but suffered a hip injury late against the Packers on Monday.  Jones has not practiced all week and is listed as questionable.  The Steelers have had trouble with NFC South teams as they lost to both the Buccaneers and Saints, but their all-time against the Falcons is 12-2-1.  The temptation is always there to give the Steelers the nod because of just how well that offense plays when it's clicking...but it has failed to click against some confusingly bad teams.  My heart tells me this will be the upset for which Ravens fans have been praying, but my brain tells me the Falcons have too little defense, a banged up receiving corps, and only a single win over a non-divisional opponent all season.  I'm daring Matt Ryan to show us his team belongs in the playoffs.  Prove me wrong, Falcons, please prove me wrong.  STEELERS 38-35

REDSKINS AT GIANTS- There are probably multiple reasons why this game should be cancelled. GIANTS 26-21

DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS-  The Dolphins beat the Patriots earlier this season, but they just lost a starting safety, Louis Delmas.  The Patriots have also found a rhythm recently.   Oh, and the first time these two teams met, the Dolphins still had their Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle.  Divisional games are never easy to predict, but I don't often bet against the Patriots at home. PATRIOTS 28-21

RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- It has been less than a month since the Raiders beat the Chiefs in Oakland.  The Chiefs should be stronger at home, but the Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 games in Kansas City.  The Chiefs have lost 3 in a row and the Raiders have won 2 out of their last 3.  This game isn't irrelevant because the Chiefs are still a wildcard contender, but I think the Raiders pull another upset here.  RAIDERS 23-21

TEXANS AT COLTS- The Texans aren't a horrible team this season, but they've actually never beaten the Colts in Indianapolis.  The Colts can clinch the division with a win this week.  This Colts team lost too much when it lost Ahmad Bradshaw.  I can't see them winning more than a single game in the playoffs, but they'll win this week...barely.  COLTS 31-24

JAGUARS AT RAVENS- Bortles has committed 21 turnovers this season and only thrown 10 touchdown passes.  Without Denard Robinson, the Jaguars have no notable impact players on offense.  The Jags defense will come out swinging in the first quarter with an energized defensive line, but the Ravens will start to finish drives in the second quarter, and the game will be blown wide open within the first 8 minutes of the second half.  Joe Flacco is going to have fun spreading the ball around to young receivers again. RAVENS 35-10

PACKERS AT BILLS-  The Packers are going to struggle to score in Buffalo against this Bills defense.  I saw almost no defense from the Packers at HOME against the Falcons, and Eddie Lacy might not even play in this game.  I'm going for an upset here.  BILLS 28-27

BUCCANEER AT PANTHERS-  Can't see the Panthers winning this without Cam Newton, but the Buccaneers are horrible so who knows?  BUCCANEERS 20-13

BENGALS AT BROWNS- This is probably the toughest game of the week to pick.  The Browns beat the Bengals DOWN in Cincy not too long ago, but Johnny Manziel is starting for the Browns this week, and that means the offense will take on a totally different form.  The Bengals MUST win this game, and the Browns MUST win this game.  I have no usable statistics or reason to suggest one way or another in regards to the Browns offense with Johnny Manziel.  Who knows if he'll be accurate or if he'll be able to read the Bengals defense well?  I certainly don't.  I do know that the Browns defense did extremely well against the Bengals offense in Cincy; it should be able to do so again in Cleveland.  BROWNS 23-17

JETS AT TITANS-  Ugh, I feel as though I'm wasting time just typing this.  Part of the reason that we see so many teams neck and neck in the playoffs race is because there is a corresponding group of teams with almost no wins on the season.  The Jets defense is better than that of the Titans, and the Jets SHOULD be able to run the ball well enough to win in Tennessee.  JETS 27-21

BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Broncos usually beat the Chargers, but something doesn't seem right about Peyton Manning.  Hell, the Ravens could really use a good outing from Manning to keep the Chargers out of the way in the hunt for a playoff spot.  The Broncos have the 2nd ranked run defense in the league and the 14th ranked pass defense in the league.  Peyton has been in a little slump, but his quarterback rating in his first game against the Chargers this season was the highest QBR against the Chargers all season.  This will be a VERY close game.  BRONCOS 31-28

VIKINGS AT LIONS- The Vikings have no beaten a team with a winning record at any point this season.  LIONS 33-10

49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- The 49ers haven't been good in Seattle for years.  Now the 49ers aren't even good in San Francisco.  I bet you miss Charm City now, Anquan. #yourteamisfallingapartattheseams        SEAHAWKS 34-13

COWBOYS AT EAGLES-  The Eagles thumped the Cowboys the first time around in Dallas.  I have little doubt they'll do so again in Philly.  EAGLES 38-21

SAINTS AT BEARS-  The Bears have a HORRIBLE pass defense, and Drew Brees is still pushing to win his abysmal division.  No Brandon Marshall for the Bears.  SAINTS 42-34

     I'd love to see the Ravens hold the Jaguars to two scores or less this weekend and help re-establish their defense as one of the top units in the league in the category of points allowed per game.  It won't be much of an accomplishment beating a horrible team at home, but a win is a win when it comes to the overall record.  There is a distinct possibility that both the Bengals and Steelers lose this weekend, but if they don't, the Ravens still have a great shot at the playoffs and possibly even winning the division.  11 wins is the most that any AFC North team can amass this season, and the Ravens have the easiest schedule with which to do so. 

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

 

 

 

Saturday, December 6, 2014

WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS AND RAVENS-DOLPHINS ANALYSIS

     The news of Haloti Ngata's 4-game suspension for the use of Adderall did not shock or anger me as much as I believe it did to  many other Ravens fans.  Ngata made a great number of impact plays in the first half of this season.  Through the first 8 games he had more passes defensed and interceptions than Richard Sherman and J.J. Watt.  Ngata, however, has displayed a troubling trend for nearly the last 4 seasons: his body wears down, and his productivity tends to wane in the second half of each season.
     I read a pair of statistics today that the Ravens defense with Haloti Ngata on the field allowed a an average QBR of 71 for opposing quarterbacks thus far this season.  With Haloti Ngata OFF the field, however, the Ravens defense has held opposing quarterbacks to an average QBR of 47.  In addition, the Ravens run defense performs better with Haloti Ngata OFF the field (3.1 yards per carry allowed) than when Ngata is ON the field (3.8 yards per carry allowed).  A large reason for this discrepancy is the play of Timmy Jernigan.  Jernigan is rated as the third best run defending defensive tackle in the NFL--and it's his rookie season.  When Jernigan is on the field, for example, he has been credited with nearly one quarter of the tackles on running plays.  The Ravens got Jernigan in the second round of the draft, and he has clearly been overshadowed by the immediate greatness of C.J. Mosley, but Jernigan is nearly as talented effective.  The Ravens got first round talent when they were fortunate enough to be able to pick Timmy in the second round.  Timmy.--haha--it's rather amusing to think of a thunderous, explosive athlete being affectionately referred to as Timmy, but he's our guy and I doubt we'll see a ton of drop off while he fills Ngata's enormous shoes.
     I hope that the news of Haloti Ngata's suspension does not make Ravens fans feel any less fired up about Joe and boys heading south for the winter to take down another Florida team.  The Dolphins are clearly a quality team this season, and they can't be taken lightly.  The Dolphins have, however, shown a profound weakness in their run defense in the last two weeks much the same way the Ravens have shown a profound weakness in their pass defense during that same period of time.  Both teams are 1-1 in their last two games, and that has much to do with the quality of the opponents they've faced.  The Dolphins faced a high-octane offense with an elite quarterback in Denver and narrowly lost.  The Ravens faced an elite quarterback last week and lost by the slimmest possible margin after leading for 58 minutes of the game.  The Dolphins then narrowly defeated a losing Jets team last monday while the Ravens somewhat narrowly defeated a losing Saints team two weeks ago.  The question that must be answered is which one of these teams is more suited to take greater advantage of their opponent's glaring weakness on Sunday?
     The Dolphins have allowed 478 rushing yards in the last two weeks, and the Ravens have allowed 803 passing yards over the last two weeks--I don't know which is more embarrassing, but I'm inclined to go with the larger number.  On second thought, the 478 yards on the ground in two weeks is an average of 239 rushing yards allowed per game.  Allowing nearly 240 rushing yards in a game is far more unusual than than allowing 400 passing yards in a game.  With that said, it really doesn't matter which statistic is worse.  What matters instead is that both teams were able to win in spite of this weakness as long as they weren't facing an elite quarterback. 
     Neither Ryan Tannehill nor Joe Flacco is generally regarded as elite by the vast majority of NFL fans.  Flacco is, at this point, a grizzled veteran in the midst of one of the best statistical seasons of his career, but he still is not able to consistently carry a team on his back in the fashion of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. Flacco's gift is his control over his emotions during times of intense pressure.  Like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco has often been a mediocre quarterback in the regular season but an absolute post-season hero when winter rolls around.  The Ravens used to always MAKE the post-season through the first 5 years of Flacco's career, so he always had a chance to show what he could do under that type of pressure.  Last season, however, the Ravens were simply too flawed to make the playoffs, and suddenly many criticized Flacco as not being worth the money he was paid during the off-season.  Whether Joe is worth that money is clearly debatable, but he has shown this season that he can effectively lead one of the NFL's top offenses under the guidance and direction of Gary Kubiak.
     Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has shown flashes of greatness over the last two seasons.  Like Flacco, Tannehill struggled to stay upright in 2013 due to incredibly shoddy protection from his offensive line.  The Dolphins have changed their offense for this season to take advantage of Tannehill's skill set and athleticism that was showcased during his college career as a wide receiver.  The Dolphins now run a college style option offense that features a good amount of Ryan Tannehill running the football...and he's good at it.
     The bad thing for the Dolphins?  The Ravens excel at stopping the run.  The good thing for the Ravens?  The Dolphins are bad at deep passes.  One would think that with such a deep threat with elite speed as Mike Wallace, a name with which the Ravens are quite familiar, the Dolphins would be reasonably effective on intermediate and long passes.  Lo and behold, the Dolphins don't have a single receiver with 700 or more receiving yards yet, and Mike Wallace has only averaged 12.2 yards per reception.  Torrey Smith, by contrast, only has roughly 50 less receiving yards than Mike Wallace, but he has averaged 16.0 yards per reception in only 38 catches.  Steve Smith is not far behind Torrey with 15.2 yards per reception, but he has 54 catches on the season for 819 yards.  With that said, Joe Flacco has only slightly over 100 more passing yards than Ryan Tannehill this season, and the Dolphins short passing game has often been wickedly effective in 2014.
     With all things considered, I like the Ravens odds in defending and ultimately outscoring the Dolphins offense.  The Ravens tend to struggle most in coverage when receivers get behind their entire secondary.  In the case of Ryan Tannehill, he likely won't stand in the pocket long enough to find receivers that far down-field.  He will, if the rest of the season is a good predictor, look to the run first.  When in passing situations, Tannehill will attempt to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly, in hopes that they'll be able to use their speed and athleticism to make moves up-field after the catch.  This should play into the hands of the Ravens defensive backs as they fare much better when making plays moving forward rather than when backpedaling or staying with receivers stride for stride on deep routes.  To be fair, however, the Dolphins' offensive strategy has won them exactly the same number of games as the Ravens thus far.
     The Dolphins' defensive strength has been their elite pass defense which ranks 2nd in the NFL.  The Ravens very well may struggle at times to move the football through the air on Sunday, and it's possible that will keep Baltimore one-dimensional. The thing that astounded me, however, about the Dolphins defense wasn't the fact that they have given up such an incredible number of rushing yards in the last two weeks.  It is, instead, the fact that they gave up over 200 rushing yards in the first half alone to a Jets team that ranks dead last in the league in passing.  In other words, the Dolphins KNEW the Jets were going to run the ball and they still weren't able to stop them from amassing a gargantuan number of yards on the ground.  What does that mean for the Ravens?  It means that the Dolphins will likely have to commit to stuffing the run in the same fashion they did against the Jets, but in the case of the Ravens, there will actually be a competent quarterback and a serious receiving corps to which he can deliver the football when the Jets over-commit to stopping the run.  The Dolphins often heavily stacked the box against the Jets, but the Jets were so incredibly inept in the passing game that they had little choice but to continue to pound the rock.
     I would like to think that the Dolphins offense plays right into the strength of the Ravens defense and that the strength of the Ravens offense will likely be able to exploit a glaring weakness in the Dolphins defense, but we all know that nothing is so easily predicted this season.  Both of these teams can put away a mediocre or bad team, and each of these teams has lost some heartbreaking games to teams with winning records.  The fact is that the Ravens are a tad banged up and short-staffed for my liking.  Torrey Smith will play, but he likely won't be 100%.  Justin Forsett will also likely play, but he's listed as questionable and also likely won't be at 100%.  Although Timmy Jernigan has performed well thus far this season, his explosive play may not be AS explosive if he's playing nearly the entire game with Haloti Ngata not taking a large percentage of the snaps. I don't expect a big win for the Ravens if they do win at all. 
     One encouraging statistic is that the Ravens offensive numbers on the road this season have been dramatically more impressive than at any time in recent years.  The Ravens score an average of 27.5 points on the road, and the Dolphins score an average of 26.2 points at home.  It's possible that average is less relevant in this game because the Ravens' road scoring average has been skewed by a weak schedule against teams with some of the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Ravens STILL lost half of their road games. 
     This game will almost certainly come down to who possesses the ball and scores last.  This game is equally big for both teams as they both have the same record and are vying for playoff spots.  Both teams have ferocious pass rushers such as Elvis Dumervil and Cameron Wake, but each quarterback will play a starkly contrasting styles of football. C.J. Mosley's ability to cover sideline to sideline will likely lead to some spectacular plays against Ryan Tannehill.  Miami has never been a hostile environment to Joe Flacco as he has won in all 3 of his trips there and has never in his career lost to the Dolphins.  Ugh, so many factors to consider!  Let's just get to the picks already.

WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS

STEELERS AT BENGALS-  The Steelers and Bengals have both been impressive and also puzzlingly inept this season depending on the week.  The Bengals have a single home loss on the season and are on a 3 game winning streak.  Neither of these teams, however, is consistently good enough to analyze with pinpoint accuracy.  I'll simply go with the odds: the Bengals' record at home is better than the Steelers record on the road.  The Steelers have lost 2 of their last 3 games, and nearly lost to an awful Titans team two weeks ago.  BENGALS 33-27

RAMS AT REDSKINS- RAMS 31-10

GIANTS AT TITANS- Congrats, Giants.  A game you can finally win since Mettenberger is banged up.  GIANTS 24-21

PANTHERS AT SAINTS-  The Saints offense appears to have picked up some steam since their loss to the Bengals a few weeks ago.  I can't see Cam Newton coming even close to outscoring Drew Brees in Nola.  SAINTS 34-17

JETS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings aren't great, but the Jets are far worse.  VIKINGS 21-13

RAVENS AT DOLPHINS-  I told myself after watching the Ravens lose last Sunday that there would be no way I would pick them to win on the road the following week...then I watched the Dolphins play the Jets.  Sure, the Dolphins held the Jets to only 13 points, but the Dolphins also only scored 16.  5 of the Dolphins' 7 wins came against teams that either ranked in the bottom 5 in running the football, stopping the run, or both.  3 of the 5 of the Dolphins losses came against teams in the top 5 in run defense, and one of their other two losses came against a Chiefs team that has an elite rushing attack.  Even a team as bad as the Jets was able to stand toe to toe with the Dolphins by virtue of the fact that they're rank 3rd in rushing yards per game, and 3rd in run defense.  The moral of the story?  A team that can run the football and stop the run as well as occasionally pass the football as needed,  can beat the Dolphins.  I'm not being a homer, this is just how the Dolphins' season has gone thus far.  The Ravens have a more balanced offensive attack and a run defense that will force Tannehill into 3rd and long situations.  I expect some big hits on the second year starter, and little through the air.  This will be a bigger day for Suggs than Dumervil.  The Ravens will sustain long drives, and the Dolphins will run out their own clock attempting to catch up.  RAVENS 27-21

COLTS AT BROWNS-  The Colts don't always have much of a defense, especially not on the road.  The Browns, however, are in a metaphorical tailspin with the drop in performance of Brian Hoyer.  The Browns may still win a game or two of their remaining schedule, but one of them won't be this week.  COLTS 33-20

BUCCANEERS AT LIONS-  LIONS 23-13

TEXANS AT JAGUARS-  This is a game that will confuse a great many people.  The Texans are clearly the better team, but the Jaguars will make this a game in the first half.  In the end, however, this won't be too exciting.  TEXANS 38-19

BILLS AT BRONCOS-  The Bills defense is very good.  The problem is that defense only gets you so far when offense can't perform against teams with winning records.  BRONCOS 35-21

CHIEFS AT CARDINALS- I simply can't bet on this Cardinals team with no Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald with injury issues.  CHIEFS 20-17

SEAHAWKS AT EAGLES- The Eagles offense is elite.  They even rank 11th against the run.  Their pass defense allows a decent number of yards per game, but it tends to make up for it with turnovers.  That's ok because the Seahawks can't really throw the ball anyway.  The Legion of Boom will get a wake-up call in a trip across the country to a frigid, hostile environment.  31-21

49ERS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders can't stop the run and that is the biggest reason they'll lose this game.  49ERS 28-10

PATRIOTS AT CHARGERS-  The Patriots will do what the Ravens couldn't.  They'll outscore Philip Rivers, and they'll challenge his wide receivers.  PATRIOTS 42-21

FALCONS AT PACKERS-  So the Falcons are a dome team with a terrible pass defense.  I wonder what that means against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Wisconsin...hmmmm 41-17

     If the Ravens lose this game, it's not the end of the line for their playoff hopes.  Winning 10 games will likely get them a playoff berth, but it will be far easier to WIN those 10 games if they win on Sunday.  It's difficult to tell how healthy Justin Forsett and Torrey Smith are right now, but I don't think there's any way that they won't both start.  Mike Wallace wasn't exactly impressing anyone with his hands last Monday, and Brian Hartline has been limited most of this season.  Joe Flacco will lean on the running game and the physicality of Steve Smith to move the chains and get hard-fought first downs.  Smith doesn't show up every game, but it seems as though he shows up at least every OTHER game.  He had one catch last week, but because of Torrey's knee, the old guy is bound to get far more targets.  Asa Jackson has just been added to the 53 man roster, and he should be able to do some damage as a nickel corner.  I expect his presence to add a greater impact with each successive week of the last month of the regular season.  It's entirely possible that he supplants Anthony Levine as the #2 corner to push Levine to the nickel position within the next two weeks, but we'll see just how long it takes Jackson to return to full game speed.

THIS IS IT, RAVENS FANS
THIS IS DECEMBER, THIS IS CRUNCH TIME
IF THE RAVENS ARE GOOD ENOUGH, THEY'LL
FIND A WAY TO WIN--IF NOT, THEN THIS TEAM 
HAS ONLY ONE MAJOR AREA IN WHICH TO 
MAKE SWEEPING CHANGES IN THE OFF-SEASON.

HAVE FAITH, BALTIMORE
THE BIRDS KNOW HOW TO COME THROUGH WHEN IT TRULY MATTERS

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
    

    

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

SECONDARY CONCERNS: IS THE RAVENS PASS DEFENSE FIXABLE?

     Baltimore has had issues at the corner and safety positions in the recent past, but not nearly to the extent of those displayed this season.  The Ravens have possessed a "bend but don't break" defense in many of seasons since John Harbaugh took over as head coach, and that means that teams will move the ball on the Ravens, but the Ravens defense tightens up and limits scoring once opposing teams enter the red zone.  Early this season, in fact, the Ravens possessed the best red zone defense in the league, and that kept Baltimore elite in the category of points allowed per game.  Fast forward to the last two weeks where two top-tier quarterbacks threw for a total of 803 passing yards including 383 IN BALTIMORE!  There's no question that personnel in the secondary is at its all time worst state during the Flacco-Harbaugh era, but could coaching and scheme also be to blame?  More importantly, is there a chance that any of this could get any better in the final month of the season?
     Jimmy Smith was arguably the best defensive player in Baltimore before his season-ending injury in Cincinnati.  He had allowed an average of only 17 receiving yards per game through 8 weeks.  With Lardarius Webb's back injury and Asa Jackson's sprained toe, Jimmy Smith's presence helped to greatly lessen the damage opposing quarterbacks could wage upon the back end of the Ravens defense.  In the Jimmy Smith's 7 complete games, the Ravens allowed an average of only 14.85 points per game.  Since his first half exit against the Bengals, the Ravens have allowed 27.6 points per game...nearly double that of before Smith's injury.
     In 2013 the Ravens secondary was a strong point that was held back only by the absence of a true free safety.  The corner trio of Smith, Webb, and Graham went up against nearly all of the league's top 10 ranked receivers and held every single one under 100 receiving yards.  With the exception of Calvin Johnson, in fact, most were held WELL under 60 yards.  There were times where quarterbacks found success late against this secondary, but that had far more to do with fatigue due to the Ravens offense's inability to sustain drives and keep the defense off the field than talent or skill.  The Ravens offense has experienced a profound turnaround this season. Baltimore has scored an average of just over 27 points per game this season, and at this rate it will far exceed the Ravens record for most points scored in a regular season from 2012 (the current record is 399 points and the Ravens are on pace for 436 in 2014).  The offense has spent plenty of time on the field this season, and fatigue can't be any type of excuse for the D.
     With fatigue no longer an issue and because personnel is clearly the main culprit to defensive woes, the Ravens must look to make adjustments in scheme in order to compensate for a lack of starting caliber players in the secondary.  Ravens defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, must have felt that his schemes against the Saints went quite well simply because the Ravens won. Wins can sometimes make teams complacent and unaware to major glaring weaknesses.  Drew Brees, nevertheless, threw for well over 400 yards against the Ravens secondary, and did so with a weakened receiving corps.  It makes perfect sense then that the Ravens would struggle against a Chargers team with an equally impressive group of receivers and a similarly talented quarterback.  The major difference between the two games was the fact that the Chargers defense was able to make one critical stop on the Ravens second to last drive and force Baltimore to settle for a field goal from deep inside the Chargers red zone.  The Saints made no such critical stops.
     Another major difference between the Saints and Chargers games was that the Ravens put fantastic pressure on Drew Brees and sacked the future hall of fame quarterback 4 times.  Baltimore managed to sack Philip Rivers only twice, and they played calamitously sloppy football with a total of 14 penalties that helped extend critical Chargers drives.  Part of the problem was a clear coverage mismatch and a lack of discipline from Matt Elam.  Elam struggled in coverage and twice resorted to simply pulling his receiver down to the ground in frustration before the ball was even released.  Sometimes when a defensive back gets beaten in coverage repeatedly, he might resort to excessive physicality to limit the mobility of the receiver he has been assigned to cover.  Elam was not the only defensive back to struggle in pass coverage.  I don't believe there was a single defensive back that wasn't picked on last Sunday.
     If the Ravens drop 5 and 6 players back into pass coverage with little or no success, why not change strategies?  When a wounded animal, for example, is backed into a corner, it becomes ferociously aggressive to cover up and compensate for its weakness.  That animal might suffer from a limp, but it will gnash its teeth and bite violently at any challenger that dares to approach.  The Ravens secondary might be like an injured leg, but the defensive front 7 remain like sharp gnashing teeth and are a more than formidable resource to help overcompensate for a lame secondary.  Dean Pees is no sort of blitz specialist.  He may be regarded as a defensive brain, but he was particularly uncreative when it came to blitzing Philip Rivers last Sunday.  Many fans such as myself expected Pees to heavily attack the A-gaps to take advantage of the fact that the Chargers got down to their 4th string center last Sunday.  He did no such thing.  Pees also didn't adequately disguise his pressures as Philip Rivers could be seen making audible adjustments at the line to account for what he saw from the Ravens defensive front. 
     Fortunately for the Ravens, Ryan Tannehill is not Philip Rivers or Drew Brees.  The Dolphins run a college style option offense that relies heavily on the run.  The Jets, despite their ultimate loss, had great success limiting the Dolphins offense for much of Monday night's game.  The Jets also no longer possess excellent corner backs.  What the Jets DO possess, instead, is the second ranked run defense due to a talented and physical defensive line.  The Ravens rank 4th in run defense, but 31st in pass defense.  Stopping Ryan Tannehill will be much different than stopping Drew Brees or Philip Rivers.  Tannehill is required to run the football in the Dolphins option offense.  This means that stopping the Dolphins offense isn't a matter of simply collapsing the pocket.  The Ravens must, instead, contain Tannehill and hit him hard and often when he crosses the line of scrimmage as a runner.  Unlike Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill is one of the league's worst down-field passers.  He looks to get the ball quickly into the hands of such speedy receivers as Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry in hopes that they'll make defenders miss with their speed and athleticism.
     It's no surprise that Miami has shifted to this style offense after the Dolphins offensive line failed to give Tannehill enough time in the pocket to make passes down-field last season.  This might just play right into the Ravens hand as defensive backs such as Matt Elam play far better when the ball is in front of them than when tasked with making sure receivers don't get behind the Ravens defense.  This Dolphins offense also forces Ryan Tannehill to frequently attempt throws on the run, and its far more difficult pass accurately or forcefully while moving than when relatively stationary in the pocket. 
     After observing the Dolphins on Monday night, I became far more optimistic about the Ravens' chances of winning their 5 straight game against the Dolphins during the John Harbaugh's time as head coach.  Despite a relatively successful season, the Dolphins have struggled to get their fan base particularly energized and motivated.  I expect a large number of Ravens fans in the stands on Sunday and less of a home-field advantage for the home team. 
     It's not that the Ravens don't have serious issues to address and obvious dangers ahead.  Miami has the second ranked pass defense in the NFL, and the Ravens have a banged up receiving corps at the moment with injuries to Marlon Brown and Torrey Smith.  What the Dolphins don't have, however, is the ability to stop the run.  The Dolphins allowed the Jets to run for over 200 yards in only the first half of Monday night's game.  Stopping the run can be tricky when going up against a team with a serious passing attack, but the Jets almost didn't even ATTEMPT to pass the football were still able to run right over the Dolphins in prime time. 
     The Dolphins have, in fact, allowed a total of 478 rushing yards in the last two games, and would have likely lost to one of the worst teams in football had it not been for the total lack of a passing game from Geno Smith and company.  The Ravens boast the NFL's leading rusher in yards per carry, Justin Forsett, and they also possess a more formidable passing attack with a far more impressive quarterback and receiving corps than the Jets.  The key will be keeping Cameron Wake off of Joe Flacco, and the way to do that is to run the football to set up the pass--especially off of play-action.
     The Dolphins have played quite well against a laundry list of tough opponents this season with wins over the Patriots, Chargers, and Bills.  Almost as impressive is the fact that the Dolphins have had incredibly narrow losses to the Lions, Broncos, and Packers.  Half of the aforementioned teams possess more impressive offenses than the Ravens, but not a single one runs the football and stops the run as well as Baltimore.  If the Ravens can limit the Dolphins on first and second down and force Tannehill into 3rd and long situations, then I like the Ravens' changes of squeaking out a win on the road this week.  If the Ravens defense sputters and gets away from the run, things could get ugly in a hurry.

AFC PLAYOFF RACE UPDATE
 
     One of the major misconceptions is that the Ravens' loss to the Chargers has nearly sealed Baltimore's fate to miss the playoffs once again.  A win last weekend would have gone a long way to ensuring a playoff berth, but losing to the Chargers in no way meant the elimination of the Ravens from post-season contention.  The Ravens still have the easiest schedule of any of the remaining 7-8 win playoff contenders. 
     The Bengals currently lead the AFC North, but only won an embarrassingly close game to a horrible team in bizarre fashion after Marvin Lewis was allowed by the referees to break the rules on Sunday.  Cincinnati could easily lose 3 or 4 of their last 4 games and finish 9-6-1 or 8-7-1  on the season.  The Bengals must play the Steelers, Broncos, Browns, and Steelers for the last month of the season, and there isn't a single opponent on that list that should fear the Bengals. 
     The Steelers have, at times, looked dominant, and have, at other times, appeared perplexingly weak.  Pittsburgh will face the Bengals and Falcons on the road in the next two weeks, and then they come home to face the the Chiefs and Bengals to finish the season.  I expect the Steelers to split with the Bengals and lose to either the Falcons or Chiefs.  That would leave the Steelers 9-7 on the season.
     The Browns will almost certainly lose to the Colts this weekend, and then could get more than they bargained for with the recent poor play of Brian Hoyer when facing the Bengals at home and the Ravens on the road.  The Browns should lose at least 2 (if not more) of their final 4 games to finish 8-8 or 9-7. 
    The Chargers will be incredibly lucky to win one or two of their remaining games.  San Diego will face the Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs, and 49ers to finish the season, and each team is easily capable of beating Philip Rives and company.  The Broncos and Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers, and the Patriots are simply better in every phase of the game.  The 49ers are the only team the Chargers have a good shot at beating, and even that game will be a tough road test.  The Chargers will likely finish the season 9-7.
     The Kansas City Chiefs have lost their last two games.  They lost the first of those two to the Raiders oddly enough, and they predictably lost the second to the Broncos.  The Chiefs have the Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers, and Chargers ahead of them.  Each of those games is win winnable, but Kansas City is not likely to win all of them. 
     The Buffalo Bills have possibly the toughest schedule of any other team in the playoff hunt.  They face the Broncos in Denver, the Packers, the Raiders, and Patriots in Foxboro.  The Bills will almost certainly only win one of these games and finish 8-8 on the season.  They don't appear to be much of a threat.
     The Miami Dolphins beat the Patriots early in the season, but they did so in Miami.  The Dolphins must still face the Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, and Jets once again.  The Dolphins have a good shot at winning 2-3 of those games and finishing 9-7 or even 10-6.  The deciding factor will be whether or not the Dolphins can beat the Ravens this Sunday.
     The Ravens are by no means a shoe-in to make the playoffs.  Their secondary is absolutely horrendous, and it may not improve much if at all.  Baltimore, however, faces one of the easiest remaining schedules of any of the contenders with games against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, and Browns.  Not a single one of those teams possesses an elite starting quarterback or a top 10 ranked pass offense.  Miami and Houston rank 22nd and 23rd respectively in passing yards per game, and the Jaguars rank 28th.   The Texans secondary is almost as poorly ranked as that of the Ravens, and their run defense is also in the bottom half of the league.  The only thing the Texans do well is run the football...and that happens to be exactly what the Ravens excel at defending.
    I might sound incredibly optimistic, but bear with me for a moment. If the Ravens can manage to beat the Dolphins this weekend, they should roll to a solid victory over a horrible Jaguars team the following week at home.  The Ravens then will head to Houston to face a Texans team that no longer boasts a top 10 offense or defense.  The Texans defense, in fact, is ranked 27th in the league overall despite J.J. Watt's astounding, MVP-caliber season.  If the Ravens can manage to win their next three games against one formidable opponent, one terrible opponent, and one mediocre opponent, they'll stand at 10-5 with one game to play.  If the Steelers, Bengals, and Browns lose as many games as I assume they will during that period, it's entirely possible that the Ravens could be in a position where they could sit their starters in the final week of the season against the Browns, win the division anyway, and possibly keep the Steelers from winning a wildcard....that is the best case scenario.
     It's entirely possible that the Ravens lose this week to the Dolphins, but then beat the Jaguars and Texans.  That would set the Ravens up for a must-win game at home in Week 16 against a team that has struggled lately.  It's a team the Ravens already beat on the road and to which the Ravens have only lost once in the last 7 seasons.  Yes, that's the Browns.  Yes, Josh Gordon is back, but poor quarterback play has made his return far less exciting.  The Browns defense has performed far worse than I assumed it would at the beginning of the season.  With the 29th ranked run defense in the league, the Browns will likely struggle to stop Justin Forsett running behind a much-improved Ravens offensive line. 
    I believe the Ravens are nearly guaranteed to win 2 of their final 4 games, but it's entirely possible that 3 or even 4 wins will be in their grasp.  Because of the difficulty of the remaining schedules of the other AFC North teams, 10-6 will likely win the division and 11-5 will DEFINITELY win the division.  If the Ravens can manage to beat the Dolphins, they'll probably be good enough make the playoffs.  If they fail, they still have a reasonable shot.  Asa Jackson looks as though he might play this week, and while I'm hesitant to suggest that he'll be the secondary's savior, he very well may add depth and experience to a relatively inexperienced stable of cornerbacks.  Michael Campanaro was a difference maker anytime he was on the field before his injury, and he appears as though he's ready to play this weekend.  If Campanro can stay healthy, he might just prove the security blanket possession receiver that Joe Flacco has pined after since losing Dennis Pitta.
    I'm sure there are many in Baltimore who have given up hope on this Ravens team after last week's heartbreaking loss, but the Ravens appear to have just as good a (if not better) than any other team in their division. 

DON'T LOSE HOPE NOW, RAVENS FANS
A WIN THIS WEEK WILL GO A LONG WAY
TO LOCKING UP A PLAYOFF SPOT, 
AND A LOSS WON'T KNOCK THE RAVENS OUT

STAY TUNED FOR WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!